The wild swings with forecasts for Dolphins pick at No. 11. And some feedback
Among the prominent national draft analysts, there is always going to be some level of variation in where they slot different players and which prospects they project will rise or fall after the NFL Combine, or what Mel Kiper Jr. likes to call “the underwear Olympics.”
But that variation has been particularly stark this year.
It’s important to note that these mock drafts — at least the ones done by the most credible analysts — usually are based on a combination of personal opinion and information from their conversations with teams.
For example, ESPN’s Kiper and NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah both have said they speak with teams to get a sense of how players are perceived and where they might be picked. Their mocks reflect a blend of that feedback and their own opinions. Both generally have a good feel for that, though Kiper and Jeremiah and everyone else never foresaw Shadeur Sanders slipping to the fifth round in last year’s draft.
Except for LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, there seems to be no unanimity regarding draft range for any of the prospects routinely linked to Miami.
ESPN’s Kiper and Jordan Reid have the Dolphins taking UM offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa at No. 11, while other respected draftniks have him off the board well before that, even as high as No. 3 to Arizona.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, whose evaluation of players is as good as anybody’s, has Ohio State’s Carnell Tate, considered the draft’s best receiver, slipping to Miami at 11, while other credible voices have him as a top seven selection.
Kiper and ESPN’s Field Yates spent several minutes on national television this week discussing a scenario where Ohio State safety Caleb Downs — who has been widely projected as a top-eight pick — falls to Miami at 11.
Tennessee cornerback Jermon McCoy, who didn’t play last season because of a torn ACL, was a popular mock draft selection for the Dolphins in January, but Reid (one of four ESPN draftniks) has him falling to 29th after he declined to run at the Combine.
Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, routinely mocked to Miami in January, is now almost unanimously going off the board earlier — in some cases, much earlier.
Auburn edge player Keldric Faulk, mocked to Miami in multiple mock drafts in January, is now projected for the late teens or 20s.
And Georgia tackle Monroe Freeling, who wasn’t even a first round pick in several mock drafts in January, is now routinely being projected for the top 12, with longtime analyst Dane Brugler mocking him 11th to Miami in his draft this week for the Athletic.
And don’t even get me started on Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, whose range among draft analysts varies from the early teens to early second round.
For as much as these analysts speak to teams, there’s never going to be reliable clarity on the range for every single player because teams naturally view these players differently.
Some feedback on these players now being mocked to the Dolphins:
▪ UM’s Mauigoa:
Even while mocking him to Miami, Kiper acknowledges he could go as high as Arizona at No. 3 or the Giants at No. 5. Cleveland, at No. 6, ultimately could pick among Mauigoa, Freeling or one of multiple Ohio State players.
“I struggle with Mauigoa dropping to 11,” Kiper said. “I said [Utah tackle] Spencer Fano is going to go 5, so I drop him to 11. Keep the local guy in Miami. He’s an entertaining player to watch because he can beat you up, has athleticism. His steady improvement in his overall play, the way he gets after people. Arizona could take him at No. 3. He is going to go in the top 11. [Miami] is as far as he will drop.
“With the versatility he has to be a right tackle or guard, a lot of people say he’s a Pro Bowl caliber guard. Or start him at tackle [and eventually] move him inside to guard.”
ESPN’s Yates said “a lot of people view this as one of the safest [picks] in the draft. He’s such a controlled athlete, never looks like he’s not playing on his heels.” But Yates’ one mild concern is “this is a solidly built player as opposed to a tremendously built player. It will be interesting to see if that impacts his value.”
▪ LSU cornerback Delane: He held quarterbacks to an absurd 26.7 passer rating in his coverage area last season. But NFL Network’s Jeremiah said there’s another reason — beyond his talent — that he mocked him to the Dolphins at No. 11:
“I think they’ll appreciate the fact that he’s scheme-diverse,” Jeremiah said. “He’s someone that, if you want to play him in press (coverage), he’s really, really smooth. He can flip and open up real easy. You want to play him in off [coverage], he’s a fluid mover. He can really see things top-down, drop, make plays on the football.
“He got a little bored when I was watching him because teams just stop throwing in his direction. But I thought he’s someone that’s a loose, fluid, smooth athlete, with toughness, that’s scheme-diverse.”
▪ Tate: Many would be surprised if he slips to 11. But Zierlein, who is essentially the top print-journalist evaluator for the league’s web site, would not be after his mediocre 40 time at the Combine.
“Tate’s lack of top-end speed at the NFL Scouting Combine (4.53 40-yard dash) was a little surprising relative to the rest of the group,” Zierlein said. “But the Ohio State product runs great routes and catches everything. He’s a baller.”
▪ Freeling: Though he played only left tackle last season at Georgia, he played some right tackle in 2024.
“Freeling offers coveted length and athleticism at right tackle,” Zierlein said. “There is some buyer beware on tape, but if smoothed out, he has the ceiling of a quality NFL starter.”
Many evaluators believe he’s better equipped to be a left tackle than right tackle, and Miami doesn’t need a left tackle.
▪ Tennessee cornerback McCoy: ESPN’s Kiper, ESPN’s Matt Miller, The Ringer’s Todd McShay, The Athletic’s Brugler and NFL Network have all mocked him to Miami at some point in the past two months. But the knee injury last year could cause him to fall, even though nobody is doubting the talent.
He had four interceptions for Tennessee in 2024 and two for Oregon State in 2023.
McShay said he’s arguably the most gifted man-to-man corner in the draft, noting his high-end speed, smooth hips and quick feet.
But Reid, who calls him a late first-rounder, said: “We’re still not sure where he’s at in his recovery, as he did not participate in testing or drills at the Combine. All eyes will be on Tennessee’s Pro Day on March 31, when McCoy is expected to participate in a full workout.”
▪ Auburn’s Faulk: The 6-6, 285-pounder is a natural defensive end in a 4-3, which will be Miami’s base scheme under Jeff Hafley. But most now expect he will go well after 11, with Brugler mocking him 20th.
“If you could draw up the perfect NFL 4-3 defensive end, it would be Faulk,” Kiper said. “He can win with outside and inside moves, and he moves blockers with his super powerful hands. I see good overall instincts on tape too. Faulk makes his presence felt against the run and the pass, and he is scheme versatile.”
One concern: After producing seven sacks in 2024, he had two sacks last season and a modest 6.5 tackles for loss. “He has the measurables of a prototypical NFL edge rusher,” Yates said.
▪ Downs: This one is fascinating, because many evaluators regard him as one of the best players in the draft. But he plays a position that some teams are reluctant to allocate a high first-round pick.
In their weekly “First Draft” show with Mike Greenberg, Kiper and Yates exchanged picks on a mock draft this week, and Downs fell to 11, with Kiper quickly grabbing him for Miami.
“He can be the centerpiece of your defense,” Kiper said. “The instincts he has, the awareness he has, the high football IQ. This kid has character off the charts. I don’t think Caleb Downs gets down this far. There is no way any team will pass him up at 11. He’s a different kind of player. He’s a special entity to me.”
Yates said: “I think it’s possible” he’s there for Miami at 11. “Caleb Downs deserves to go ahead of 11, but I don’t think it’s the wildest idea he ends up at 11.”
Among other players linked to Miami, UM’s Rueben Bain Jr. has remained fairly steady in draft projections (8 to 15), but there are even questions with him because of the repetitive short-arm criticism.
It’s certainly possible that Miami might not end up even picking at 11; general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan has said, speaking about the draft in general, that he is open-minded to trading down.
This story was originally published March 6, 2026 at 11:32 AM.
