Should the Dolphins keep or cut Tua Tagovailoa? Here are the salary consequences
The Dolphins essentially moved on from Tua Tagovailoa on Wednesday, replacing him with rookie Quinn Ewers.
Whether they take the next step and remove Tagovailoa from the roster this offseason will require more thought because of the signficant financial consequences.
What to know:
▪ If Tagovailoa is still on the Dolphins’ roster on March 13 (the third day of the 2026 league year), $3 million of his 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Another $17 million would become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2027 league year.
But as overthecap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald noted via email, the $3 million guarantee for 2027 shouldn’t drive the Dolphins’ decision -- or motivate Miami to release him by March 13 — because it’s a negligible amount and would be offset when he signs with another team.
▪ Because the Dolphins already have guaranteed Tagovailoa’s $54 million salary for next season, a strong case could be made to keep him next season, either as the backup or in competition with a new player for the starting job.
His $56.4 million cap hit next season would be $45 million less than his Dolphins 2026 dead money cap hit if Miami releases him before June 1. That $56.4 million would be $11 million more than his Dolphins 2026 dead money cap hit if the Dolphins release him after June 1.
“I’d be very hesitant to move on from Tua, as it’d be a big gamble that risks the QB position getting worse,” overthecap.com’s Nick Korte said. “I’m very happy that the gamble paid off for the Broncos when they took it on cutting Russell Wilson, but no guarantee the Dolphins will get that lucky.”
▪ But this would be the risk of playing Tagovailoa again this season or ever again:
If he plays again this season and is injured, the Dolphins would be on the hook for $20 million of his 2027 salary if he’s unable to pass a physical when the Dolphins release him at any point next calendar year.
If Tagovailoa plays again this season and is injured, “it would delay the process” of releasing him, Fitzgerald noted. “But as long as it’s not a catastrophic injury they should still be able to cut him. But it might not be until the summer.”
That $20 million injury guarantee also would come into play if he remains with the Dolphins and is injured in a game or practice next season.
▪ If the Dolphins move on from Tagovailoa this offseason, the Dolphins’ 2026 cap hit would be:
1). $99.2 million if cut before June 1.
2) $45.2 million if he’s traded before June 1.
3). $67.4 million if cut after June 1, with another $31.8 million on Miami’s 2027 cap. As Fitzgerald noted, Miami would receive a credit for any salary earned from another team in 2026.
4) $13.4 million if he’s traded after June 1.
▪ If the Dolphins keep him in 2026 and then release him before mid-March 2027, Miami would owe him nothing (provided he’s not injured next season) but would have a $31.8 million dead money cap hit for 2027.
Tagovailoa will receive roster bonuses of $5 million and $7 million in 2027 and 2028 on the third day of the league year in each season.
Potential records
▪ If the Dolphins release Tagovailoa this upcoming offseason, there would be $99.2 million of cap charges, whether it hits Miami’s books over one year (with a pre-June 1 cut) or two years (post-June 1).
That would be a record for most dead money relating to a single player contract. Per cap expert Joel Corry, the current record is held by Russell Wilson, who had an $85 million cap charge for Denver after his release.
If the Dolphins cut Tagovailoa, he would set a record for biggest cash payout to a player who was cut before the season, at $54 million. Wilson owns that record at $37.8 million, per Fitzgerald. Christian Wilkins would pocket $48 million if he wins a grievance against the Raiders after his release.
▪ If the Dolphins simply kept Tagovailoa for the duration of his contract (highly unlikely), Miami’s cap hits would be $56.4 million in 2026, $53.4 million in 2027, and $65.8 in 2028.
Though his contract expires after 2028, Miami could use a void year that will result in an $11 million cap charge in 2029.
The Dolphins gave him a $42 million signing bonus when he agreed to a four-year, $212 million extension in July 2024. The deal includes $167 million of guaranteed money.
If the Dolphins had instead used the franchise tag on Tagovailoa, they could have gone year to year with him and parted ways this upcoming offseason without owing him a dime and without any future cap hits.
Overall cap situation
▪ The Dolphins are currently $11.6 million over next year’s cap, per overthecap.com.
There are three primary ways the Dolphins can create cap space: cutting Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick, or Hill and one of the other two.
Hill’s $29.2 million salary next season is not guaranteed. His $51.9 million 2026 cap hit would shrink to $28.2 million if the Dolphins release or trade him before June 1. It would be $15.9 million if he’s cut or traded after June 1, with another $12.3 million dead money hit in 2027.
Chubb’s current contract carries a $19.4 million salary next season (all nonguaranteed) and a $31.2 million 2026 cap hit. If they cut or trade him, the cap hit is $23.8 million before June 1 — or $10.9 million after June 1, with the remaining $14 million of the cap hit applied to Miami’s 2027 book.
Fitzpatrick is owed no guaranteed money after this season. His current contract calls for a $15.8 million salary and an $18.9 million cap hit in 2026.
Fitzpatrick’s 2026 Dolphins dead money cap hit drops to $12.9 million if he’s cut or traded before June 1 and just $3.2 million after June 1, but with the difference on Miami’s books in 2027. He’s now sidelined with a calf injury; McDaniel says his status is “week to week.”
▪ There are very few other ways to generate significant cap space without compromising the roster.
The 2026 cap hit for guard James Daniels (a bargain at only $1.3 million base next season) would drop from $4.9 million to $1.2 million with a post-June 1 cut. (It’s $4.8 million pre-June 1.) He has been out since the opener because of a pectoral injury.
Right tackle Austin Jackson, who has had trouble staying healthy the past two seasons, is due $9.9 million next season (none of that is guaranteed) with a $15.8 million cap hit.
If the Dolphins decide to move on entirely, Jackson’s cap hit would be $13.8 million if the Dolphins release or trade him before June 1, but just $4.3 million after June 1 (with a $9.5 million hit in 2027).
There would be small cap savings for cutting fullback Alec Ingold or linebacker Tyrel Dodson, but both have played well in recent weeks.
▪ The Dolphins already have $34 million in dead money cap hits for 2026 — mostly for Jalen Ramsey ($20.8 million) and retired Terron Armstead ($10.7 million).
“Miami’s run on contracts the last few years has been up there with some of the worst in modern memory,” Fitzgerald noted on X.
In six pro seasons, Tagovailoa, 27, has thrown for 18,166 yards, with 120 touchdowns and 59 interceptions, a 68% completion rate and a 96.4 passer rating. But this season, he has 19 touchdowns and a league-leading 15 interceptions and has the league’s fourth-worst QBR.
Here’s more of what McDaniel said about the quarterback change.
Here’s what Tagovailoa said about his benching.
This story was originally published December 17, 2025 at 12:50 PM.
