A look at many Dolphins’ potential QB replacements in draft, trades, free agency
Deciding to upgrade over Tua Tagovailoa is the easy part of the Dolphins’ quarterback conundrum.
Finding a suitable replacement?
That’s where it gets tricky.
The free agent class is largely bereft of appealing options.
This isn’t considered a great quarterback draft class.
The trade market is murky.
On Sunday, Quinn Ewers will get something of an audition to be considered for next year’s starting job. If he plays well against the Bengals, Buccaneers and Patriots, he immediately becomes an option.
A look at who will be available — and who might be available — this offseason:
Potential trade or release candidates
▪ Arizona is expected to move on from former first-round pick Kyler Murray, who has been shelved for the remainder of the season in part because his injured foot hasn’t sufficiently healed.
The question is whether he will be traded or released. If he’s released, he would become the most accomplished in-his-prime quarterback on the free agent market and an interesting option for Miami.
But if he’s traded, it would be difficult — not impossible, but difficult — to make the numbers work for the Dolphins, from a cap standpoint, unless Arizona surprisingly wanted Tagovailoa in return.
Murray, 28, is in the second-year of a five-year, $230.5 million contract that runs through 2028.
He’s due $36.8 million guaranteed next season and carries a $53.3 million cap hit. None of his money beyond next season is guaranteed.
If Arizona trades him, its dead cap for 2026 would drop to $17.9 million, but the team acquiring him would need to pick up the remainder of Murray’s contract, which the Dolphins couldn’t accommodate unless they can somehow trade Tagovailoa or execute remarkable cap gymnastics.
The Cardinals would have a $54.7 million 2026 dead money cap hit if they release him before June 1, and a $47.5 million hit if he’s cut after June 1.
The 5-10 Murray, who hasn’t played since a loss against Tennessee on Oct. 5, is 38-48-1 as a starter, but has a strong arm and can extend plays. During his career, he has thrown twice as many TD passes (121) as picks (60) and has produced a decent 92.2 career passer rating. Also, he has rushed for 32 touchdowns and averaged 6.0 yards per carry.
At 28, he’s still in his prime — and he would be an upgrade over 2025 Tagovailoa.
▪ Kirk Cousins. The Falcons’ veteran backup — who has six touchdowns, three interceptions and an 86.3 rating filling in for the injured Michael Penix — is owed $35 million in 2026 and 2027, with $58 million cap hits each season.
Of that $35 million, $10 million is guaranteed next season and none is guaranteed in 2027. A post-June 1 trade would carry a $12 million cap hit; cutting him would increase the cap hit dramatically.
His age (37), declining skills and contract make him a somewhat unappealing option, though he cannot be ruled out if he’s released.
Possible trade options
▪ Trades involving any other veterans would be speculative, because it’s unclear if any of these players would be available.
The 49ers, who have committed to Brock Purdy as their starter, theoretically could be tempted if they get a decent trade offer for Mac Jones, who played reasonably well this season when Purdy was hurt (5-3 record, 13 TDs, 6 interceptions). Jones is due $2.8 million from the 49ers next season, with $1 million guaranteed...
The Colts potentially could move on from former first-round pick Anthony Richardson, a dual-threat QB who has been out with an orbital injury and has thrown only two passes this season. But he has been unimpressive in his brief career (11 TDs, 16 interceptions, 67.8 rating).
“He still offers a level of upside that other backup quarterbacks do not possess. ” ESPN’s Seth Walder said. “Since 2023, no QB has thrown a higher percentage of their passes 20-plus yards downfield [18%] and the only player with a higher interception rate is Jameis Winston.”...
Because of his enormous contract, the Cleveland Browns reportedly are expected to keep Deshaun Watson, who has struggled with performance and injuries since the Texans traded him to Cleveland...
Beyond Cousins and Jones, other backups under contract next season include Spencer Rattler, Mason Rudolph, Will Levis, Joshua Dobbs, Jalen Milroe, Joe Milton, Jarrett Stidham, Cooper Rush and Aiden O’Connell. But any of those players likely would be only a stopgap or bridge QB, though the ceilings for Milroe, Milton and Levis remain somewhat unclear.
▪ As for Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, that remains something of a fantasy because of his hefty contract and because the Bengals want to keep him until he demands a trade. If he asked out, he likely would try to dictate where he goes.
Burrow said Wednesday that he expects to play for many years and said that “I can’t see” playing for a team other than Bengals. But he added “crazy things can happen” in the NFL and that he has at least thought about other options in the past. “You think about a lot of things,” Burrow said.
Impending unrestricted free agents
The players are listed by descending order of their current salary:
▪ Colts’ Daniel Jones ($14 million salary this season): Sustained a torn Achilles earlier this month and is expected to need eight months or more to recover.
▪ Steelers’ Aaron Rogers ($13.6 million): Could opt to return to Pittsburgh, where he has enjoyed playing, or retire.
▪ Giants’ Russell Wilson ($10.5 million): No longer starter quality.
▪ Washington’s Marcus Mariota ($8 million): Has 10 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, an 87 passer rating and a 2-5 record filling in for Jayden Daniels.
▪ Dolphins’ Zach Wilson ($6 million). The fact that Mike McDaniel opted for Ewers, and not Wilson, to replace Tagovailoa doesn’t bode well for Wilson’s future here.
▪ Jets’ Tyrod Taylor ($6 million). More of a backup than a bridge quarterback, at this point.
▪ Bengals’ Joe Flacco ($4.2 million): Had 13 TDs, four picks and a 91 rating after Cincinnati acquired him from Cleveland. Went 1-5 as Bengals starter before Burrow’s return.
▪ Raiders’ Kenny Pickett ($3.5 million): Supremely mediocre, with 16 career TDs, 15 INTs and a 78.9 rating.
▪ Rams’ Jimmy Garoppolo ($3 million): Hasn’t thrown a pass this season; had 9 TDs and 10 picks in seven starts for Las Vegas over previous two seasons.
▪ Bills’ Mitchell Trubisky ($2.6 million): A stopgap bridge starter at best. Has gone 31-28 as a starter, with 74 TDs, 48 INTs and an 86 rating.
▪ Bears’ Case Keenum ($2.2 million): The 37-year-old hasn’t thrown a pass in a regular season game since 2023.
▪ Chargers’ Trey Lance ($2 million): Only 25, the former third overall pick of the 2021 draft has bounced from San Francisco to Dallas to Los Angeles and has five TDs, four interceptions and a 79.9 rating in 15 appearances and five starts. He has completed just 56.4% of 156 passes.
▪ Minnesota’s Carson Wentz ($1.4 million): Like Tagovailoa, he mysteriously regressed dramatically in his prime, backing up for the Commanders, Rams, Chiefs and Vikings the past four years. He has 19 TDs, 15 interceptions and an 87 passer rating over those four years, including a 5-9 record in 14 starts (2-3 this year).
▪ Green Bay’s Malik Willis ($1.3 million): The former Titans third-round pick lasted only two years in Tennessee but has played well in limited work for two years with the Packers, completing 43 of 57 for 563 yards, with four TDs and no interceptions and a 2-0 record.
He’s a threat on the ground; Willis has averaged 5.5 yards per carry (55 for 301). McDaniel trusts the judgment of Packers coach Matt LaFleur, his friend and former colleague. Willis could be one worth exploring.
▪ Detroit’s Kyle Allen ($1.2 million): Has thrown just three passes the past three years and is 7-12 as a starter with 26 touchdowns, 21 interceptions and an 81.1 passer rating.
▪ Chiefs’ Gardner Minshew ($1.2 million): The journeyman backup will finish out the season filling in for Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. He went 2-7 as a Raiders starter last season, with nine touchdowns, 10 interceptions and an 81 rating.
▪ Eagles’ Sam Howell ($1 million): He’s on his fourth team in three seasons and hasn’t thrown a pass this season after going 5 for 14 for Seattle with an interception last year. He threw an NFC-high 21 interceptions for Washington in 2023, matching his touchdown total in 17 starts.
▪ Former Dolphins Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson: Been there, done that.
▪ FYI No. 1: Cincinnati’s Jake Browning, who had some success filling in for Burrow in 2024 but struggled this season, will be a restricted free agent, with the Bengals controlling his rights.
▪ FYI No. 2: Jameis Winston is under contract to the Giants next season at $3.9 million, with $1.3 million of that guaranteed. The Giants could keep him, cut him or trade him.
▪ FYI No. 3: The Jets figure to release Justin Fields, who was ineffective as a starter this season and was replaced by Taylor.
Fields — who went 2-7 as a starter and averaged just 139 passing yards per game — is due $20 million next season, with $10 million guaranteed. It’s difficult to see the Jets paying the full $20 million. But he has never proved worthy of being a long-term starter.
FYI No. 4: The Raiders could move on from Geno Smith, who has even worse than Tagovailoa this season (16 TDs, 14 interceptions, 84.5 rating). He’s due to make $26.5 million next season, and $18.5 million of that is guaranteed. His $26.5 million Raiders 2026 cap hit would drop to an $18.5 million dead money hit if he’s released before June 1.
Draft
The Dolphins have a first round pick (currently slotted 11th), a second-rounder and three third-rounders (their own, Philadelphia’s and Houston’s). Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore (if he turns pro, which is iffy) likely will be long off the board by the time Miami picks.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has Moore first and Mendoza second among all prospects. He doesn’t have another QB in his top 25 prospects.
Texas’ Arch Manning is returning to school.
Among the Dolphins’ possible quarterback options on the second day, or in a potential Day 1 trade down:
▪ Alabama junior Ty Simpson (hasn’t announced if he’s turning pro): His stock has suffered late in the season; he was unimpressive in the 28-7 SEC Championship loss to Georgia, completing 19 of 38 passes for 212 yards, a touchdown and an interception. But he did throw 26 TDs and just five interceptions.
ESPN’s Field Yates has him going 31st if he turns pro.
“Simpson is no lock to declare for the draft [just 13 starts over his career] and his recent play has been concerning,” Yates said. “However, his performances early in the season were strong enough to keep him in the first-round conversation in the right circumstances. Simpson has nifty in-pocket movement, the ability to be an accurate passer and a strong arm when he can set his platform.”
Kiper says “he’s a more mobile Mac Jones.”
▪ Oklahoma’s John Mateer (hasn’t said if he’s turning pro): Kiper’s No. 4 quarterback prospect has just 12 TDs and 10 interceptions and hasn’t been consistent since returning from October surgery for a broken bone in his throwing hand.
He had 29 TDs and 7 interceptions for Washington State a year ago. He has a strong arm, but he hasn’t shown enough anticipation on his throws this season.
▪ Duke’s Darian Mensah (hasn’t said if he’s turning pro): Kiper’s No. 5 overall prospect finished in the top five in the nation in passing yards (3,646) and TD passes (30) in leading Duke to an ACC Championship win. His ball placement and accuracy could push him into the early second round if he turns pro.
▪ UM’s Carson Beck: He led the ACC in completion percentage (74.7) but has thrown 22 interceptions in the past two seasons (10 this season) and remains a polarizing Day 2 prospect.
“The main thing scouts want to see is better decision-making under pressure,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said earlier this season. “Beck has a fluid, quick throwing motion and isn’t afraid to fit the ball into tight windows. But his poise dissipates, and he tends to short circuit when the walls close in, leading to poor decisions and placement.”
▪ Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss: Kiper’s No. 7 QB prospect has applied for another season of college eligibility but hasn’t ruled out turning pro regardless.
The former Division II star at Ferris State is the type of skilled dual threat QB that some teams covet; he passed for 3016 yards with 18 TDs and three interceptions while rushing for 470 yards and six TDs.
▪ LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier: He had 29 TDs and 12 INTs in 2024, but just 12 and 5 this season while missing three games with an abdominal injury.
Brugler’s take: “Terrific arm, although he will throw you in and out of games. He shouldn’t be billed as a franchise-saving quarterback prospect, but he has the talent to start in the league and win games.” Kiper ranks him eighth among QB draft prospects.
▪ Penn State’s Drew Allar: He threw eight TDs and three picks in six games before a broken ankle ended his season. He had 49 TDs and 10 interceptions the previous two years.
“If you looked at Drew Allar, it’s like how every once in a while you’ll see a graphic where it’s like, build the ideal quarterback,” Yates said “A lot of the physical traits you love, right? 6-foot-5, 225 pounds. Ball really just floats off his hand.”
▪ Among others: Southern Cal’s Jayden Maiava, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, TCU’s Josh Hoover, Arkansas’ Taylen Green, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, North Dakota State’s Cole Payton and Bayor’s Sawyer Robertson.
This story was originally published December 18, 2025 at 4:15 PM.
