What needs to happen for Dolphins to make the playoffs. Their improbable path
The Dolphins’ slim playoff hopes took another hit Monday when the Chargers beat the Eagles in overtime to make Miami’s postseason odds grow longer.
Even after winning four in a row to move to 6-7, the Dolphins have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs and just an 11% chance if they win their final four games, according to the Athletic/New York Times playoff simulator.
A 10-7 record — which would be the Dolphins’ mark if they win at Pittsburgh, beat Cincinnati and Tampa Bay at home and win at New England — often would be enough to earn one of the AFC’s seven playoff berths.
But that’s less likely this season because eight AFC teams have at least eight wins, and because Miami loses the tiebreaker with most of the teams with whom they’re competing, including Indianapolis, the Chargers and Baltimore (all three beat Miami head-to-head) and the Texans (who have a much better conference record).
Dolphins tiebreakers with Buffalo and Jacksonville (who have three more wins than Miami) and Kansas City (which has the same record as Miami) remain unresolved and will be determined by the remaining schedule.
The Chiefs and Jaguars hold the tiebreaker with Miami at the moment, while the Dolphins hold the tiebreaker against the Bills at the moment.
There are several ways that Miami could make the playoffs. Here are four:
Scenario 1
▪ The Dolphins win their final four games to finish 10-7.
▪ The Chargers (9-4), the current fifth seed, lose their final four games: at Chiefs, Dallas, Houston, at Denver. Los Angeles would then finish 9-8.
▪ The No. 8 Colts (8-5), who lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the remainder of the season, lose three of their four remaining games (at Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville and at Houston) to finish 9-8.
▪ The No. 9 Ravens (6-7) lose one of their remaining games, among four tough games (at Cincinnati, New England at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh).
▪ The No. 10 Chiefs (6-7) lose another game, which is necessary from the Dolphins’ standpoint because they have a better conference record than Miami (3-5 compared with 3-6).
KC’s final four games: Chargers, at Tennessee, Denver and at Raiders.
Scenario 2
▪ The Dolphins win their final four games to finish 10-7.
▪ The No. 7 Texans (who hold the final playoff spot at 8-5) lose three of four games (Arizona, Las Vegas, at Chargers, home to Colts) to finish 9-8.
▪ The No. 8 Colts lose to Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville but win at Houston to finish 9-8. (Or they could lose at Houston and lose two other games, provided the Texans surprisingly their other three games.)
▪ The No. 9 Ravens (6-7) and No. 10 Chiefs lose one of their remaining games. There are scenarios where the Dolphins could win a tiebreaker with KC, but they’re convoluted.
Scenario 3
▪ The Dolphins win out to finish 10-7.
▪ Because they split their season series, a Dolphins tiebreaker with No. 6 Buffalo (9-4) would come down to division record.
The Dolphins are 3-2 in the division and the Bills are 2-2.
Buffalo has games at the Patriots, at Cleveland and home to Philadelphia and Jets. If the Dolphins finish with a better AFC East record, then Miami would win a tiebreaker with Buffalo if the Bills lose three games and Miami wins out, with both teams finishing at 10-7.
▪ The No. 8 Colts lose three of their four remaining games.
▪ The No. 9 Ravens (6-7) and No. 10 Chiefs (6-7) lose one of their remaining games. There are scenarios where Miami could win a tiebreaker with KC, but they’re convoluted.
Scenario 4
▪ The Dolphins win out to finish 10-7.
▪ Jacksonville, the current No. 3 seed at 9-4, implodes and loses to the Jets, at Denver, at the Colts and Tennessee. That would leave the Jaguars at 9-8.
If the Jaguars lose three of the four to finish 10-7 — and if the Dolphins win out — a Miami-Jacksonville tiebreaker would be based on records against common opponents, which still must be worked out.
The Jaguars are 2-1 against common opponents but still must play the Jets and Colts again. Miami is 2-2 against common opponents but still must play Cincinnati.
▪ Houston wins the AFC South, the Colts lose three of four, and Baltimore and Kansas City lose once. Those series of events would give Houston the division title and allow Miami to replace Houston as a final wild card team.
There are a few other confusing playoff paths for Miami, but all remain a long shot. Meanwhile, the Dolphins would be eliminated from playoff contention, per former NFL executive Joe Ferreira, if these things happen:
1). MIA loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie
2). MIA loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win/tie
3).. MIA loss + IND win + HOU win
4). MIA tie + JAX win/tie + LAC win/tie + BUF win + IND win/tie + HOU win
5). MIA tie + JAX win/tie + LAC win/tie + BUF win + IND win + HOU tie
Here’s a six-pack of notes on Darren Waller and other issues.
Here’s what Mike McDaniel said in his one news conference so far this week.
This story was originally published December 10, 2025 at 10:59 AM.
