Advanced data on where Dolphins’ QB has regressed. Waller hurt, news by position
Tua Tagovailoa had just led a playoff-clinching, game-winning drive against the Dallas Cowboys on Christmas Eve, giving him 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions for the season, the league lead in passing yards and a sterling 11-4 record.
A lucrative $212 million contract extension would follow seven months later.
Everything has gone downhill since.
Tagovailoa has played 21 games since that 2023 Christmas Eve game, one of the now-distant happy memories of the Mike McDaniel/Tagovailoa era. The Dallas win was immediately followed by losses to Baltimore and Buffalo and a playoff loss in frigid Kansas City.
Tagovailoa has thrown 22 interceptions and fumbled 13 times in those 21 games — only three of the 13 were recovered by the other team —-- and the Dolphins are 8-13 during that stretch.
He has played 11 playoff-caliber teams during those 21 games (teams that made the playoffs or are in position to do so this season) and has won only one of them, against the Rams.
He has missed six games during that stretch — four last season due to a concussion and two last season due to a hip injury.
His three-interception, three-fumble abomination in Sunday’s 31-6 loss to Cleveland was “maybe the worst game I’ve ever seen by a quarterback in the NFL,” CBS 4 analyst and former Dolphins linebacker Kim Bokamper said. “Ball slipping out of his hands, couldn’t handle the ball, interceptions. I never thought I’d see a game like this.”
Tagovailoa was circumspect afterward.
“Definitely not happy, not proud of where I’m at with my play, with how I’ve gone about things this year,” he said after producing the lowest quarterback rating of his career (24.1) and passing for just 100 yards (12-for-23 accuracy).
“I know I have to be a lot better, and I’ve been better for the Miami Dolphins years past.”
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky noted recently that Tagovailoa “looks like he’s lost his superpower; Tua’s superpower has always been cut the ball loose before you should cut the ball loose.”
The data suggests a regression in multiple areas. Consider:
▪ Tagovailoa’s 10 interceptions this season (compared with 11 touchdown passes) are tied for the league lead with the Raiders’ Geno Smith.
He had 22 interceptions in his first 30 games under McDaniel but has thrown 18 picks in 19 games since.
▪ His 82.8 passer rating is 27th in the league and ahead of only five other NFL starters: Cleveland’s Dillon Gabriel, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, Smith, Cincinnati’s Joe Flacco and Tennessee’s Cam Ward.
His passer rating is well below his previous three seasons of 105.5, 101.1 and 101.4.
▪ Tagovailoa, who led the league in yards per attempt at 8.9 in 2022, is now 21st in that category among starters, at 6.4. His passing yards per game have plunged from 272.9, 272 and 260.9 the past three seasons to 187.6 in 2025.
▪ Per ESPN’s Seth Waller, Tagovailoa has produced the two worst games by any NFL quarterback this season using ESPN’s quarterback rating formula — a 2.9 in the opener against the Colts and a 3.4 against Cleveland.
“He stinks,” six-time Pro Bowl running back LeSean McCoy said on a podcast. “When they paid him, I couldn’t believe it. Why are they paying him? What are they paying him for? The gig’s up, bro.”
▪ Tagovailoa historically has been very good when he’s not facing a heavy pass rush. That hasn’t been the case this season. He has seven touchdowns, seven interceptions and an 89.4 rating when kept clean. That’s fifth worst among all starting quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
▪ As has been the case in past years, Tagovailoa hasn’t been great in the face of a pass rush. His 64 passer rating when under pressure is 13th worst among starters.
▪ Of Tagovailoa’s 205 passes, 44 have been behind the line of scrimmage and 84 have been throws of 0 to 10 yards. So 128 of his 205 passes (62.4%) haven’t gone 10 air yards.
His biggest struggles have come on short-to-intermediate routes.
Tagovailoa has thrown only 19 passes beyond 20 yards, and he has completed nine of them, with two touchdowns, an interception and a 106.8 rating. That’s solid.
But on throws of 10 to 19 yards, he has six touchdowns, six interceptions and a poor 75.2 passer rating, per PFF.
On throws of 0 to 9 yards, he has two touchdowns, three interceptions and a mediocre 88 rating.
[Monday afternoon update: McDaniel said Tagovailoa will take every first team practice rep, which is usually the case, and will start Sunday at Atlanta.]
Position notes
Some other notes by position on offense from Sunday’s game:
▪ Running back: The Dolphins gave 32 snaps to De’Von Achane, 18 to Ollie Gordon II and 9 to Jaylen Wright, who was active for the first time in three weeks but did not have a rushing attempt.
Achane became the first player in franchise history to produce 2000 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards over his first 35 games.
▪ Wide receiver: Jaylen Waddle and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine played 44 of the 58 offensive snaps, with Malik Washington logging 37 and Dee Eskridge 17. Tahj Washington and Cedrick Wilson Jr. were inactive.
Waddle had just one catch, on four targets, for 15 yards. Eskridge’s 40-yard completion from Quinn Ewers was the longest of his career, and PFF rated him Miami’s best player on offense. He had a key fumble on special teams, however.
▪ Tight end: Darren Waller left after 16 snaps because of a pectoral strain and was set to receive an MRI on Monday in order to determine the severity. If the muscle is torn, he would likely miss the season, agent Drew Rosenhaus said on his weekly WSVN 7 Fox segment.
[Update: An MRI revealed that Waller has a pectoral strain - not a full tear - and is week to week.]
Julian Hill played 35 snaps and Tanner Conner played 18. Conner’s 28- yard reception was the longest of his career.
▪ Offensive line: Left guard Jonah Savaiinaea permitted two pressures, and PFF rated him Miami’s second-worst player on offense, ahead of only Ewers.
PFF rated right tackle Larry Borom and center Aaron Brewer as the Dolphins’ second- and third-best players overall on Sunday. Right guard Cole Strange allowed a sack.
News note
The Dolphins are not expected to make any coaching or management changes at this time, NFL Network reported Monday.
McDaniel says there could be personnel changes, however.
This story was originally published October 20, 2025 at 11:01 AM.
