National outlets pessimistic about Dolphins: How they’re predicted to finish
The Dolphins haven’t exactly earned much trust by failing to win a playoff game in nearly a quarter century.
But the national prognostications for Miami seem especially pessimistic after last season’s 8-9 record followed four consecutive winning seasons.
A look at some of those predictions, heading into Sunday’s opener at the Colts (1 p.m., CBS):
▪ USA Today has the Dolphins going 5-12, adding this comment: ”Will Mike McDaniel, who enters the season under some pressure from ownership, even make it to the stretch drive? If he does, the Fins’ final five games are either in outdoor northern cities and/or against teams that had winning records in 2024 … and, historically, his team hasn’t played well in either of those circumstances.”
▪ ESPN’s analytics division predicts the Dolphins will go 8-9 and gives Miami a 34.9% chance to make the playoffs and a 14.7% chance to win the AFC East.
ESPN notes “Miami’s success hinges on Tua Tagovailoa‘s health, as the Dolphins were markedly better with their franchise quarterback on the field last season. Over the past three seasons [including the playoffs], Miami is 25-17 with Tagovailoa starting and 3-8 with all other quarterbacks.”
ESPN’s Seth Walder said: “If Miami’s season goes south quickly — and it certainly could — it will make sense to deal Hill midway through the campaign to maximize the return as soon as possible rather than holding on to an aging player as a non-contender in the second half.”
▪ Sports Illustrated says the Dolphins will go 6-11, with this comment: “This was an exercise in ripping off the Band-Aid. Miami’s youth movement could hit early, but I just found myself tired of trying to buck narratives with this Dolphins team. I agree with the team’s fan base that the front seven is getting massively faded by the national media, though I have for years been saying that Bradley Chubb is highly underrated in terms of his ability to impact a game.
“All that said, I had a choice to make between growth and attrition. We have Tyreek Hill being an outward distraction and the man responsible for getting him the ball trying to clean up the mess and set the emotional thermostat for the locker room. While it may seem blasphemous, I had to pick a side. Also, three of Miami’s final five games come in cold weather, while another two come against the Buccaneers and Bengals.”
▪ The Athletic predicts an 8-9 finish: “The top-end talent is here, as always, but it seems like all of their starters have significant injury concerns. QB Tua Tagovailoa tops the list, of course, but WR Tyreek Hill, RB De’Von Achane, OLB Bradley Chubb and OLB Jaelan Phillips, among others, have struggled to stay on the field to varying degrees. Between those concerns and the depth questions — offensive line, defensive line, secondary — there are just too many ways for thing to go sideways for the Dolphins in 2025.”
▪ Outkick’s Armando Salguero, the former Miami Herald Dolphins columnist, predicts a 9-8 finish.
▪ Pro Football Talk is particularly down on the Dolphins, ranking them the fourth-worst team in football, ahead of only the Giants, Browns and Saints.
▪ CBS Sports has Miami finishing 7-10. CBS has only the Jets, Browns and Titans winning fewer games than Miami in the AFC.
▪ Bleacher Report also has the Dolphins going 7-10, with this comment: “The Dolphins will look like world-beaters early in the 2025 season. They’ll face the Jets on extra days of rest, the Carolina Panthers and the Browns within the first six weeks.
“Once again, Miami will fool many into believing this team is ready to win critical games late in the season. Watch out for the Dolphins’ late-season collapse after their Week 12 bye, when they face the Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home, and the Patriots in a likely cold-weather January game. This team has routinely come up short in big games under head coach Mike McDaniel.”
Here’s some news from Dolphins assistant coaches on Thursday.
Here’s a look at the Dolphins’ top two draft picks.
This story was originally published September 4, 2025 at 2:42 PM.
