What history shows about Dolphins’ first three picks and chance of finding instant starters
The Dolphins enter April without clear-cut starters at a handful of positions.
So is it realistic to find starters — or count on finding immediate or long-term starters — with Miami’s first three draft picks on Thursday and Friday?
With selection No. 13, yes. With pick No. 48, the odds are in their favor. With pick No. 98? That’s a crapshoot.
A few points regarding what those picks have produced during the past decade:
▪ Of the past 10 drafts, there has been only one instance in which all three players selected in those specific spots (13, 48 and 98) have all started more than half their team’s games as rookies.
That was 2019, when defensive lineman Christian Wilkins became an immediate starter for the Dolphins, center Erik McCoy became an immediate starter for the Saints and linebacker Quincy Williams was an eight-game starter for Jacksonville.
But that 1 in 10 doesn’t tell the full story.
If Philadelphia standout defensive tackle Jordan Davis, the 13th pick in 2022, wasn’t playing behind quality depth (including Linval Joseph) as a rookie, he probably would have started that year; he has started every game since. The players picked at 48 (Chicago safety Jaquan Brisker) and 98 (Washington running back Brian Robinson) were rookie starters in that 2022 draft class.
So while the odds are against finding three immediate starters, it has happened recently.
▪ Here’s another way of framing it: How many rookies drafted at exactly those three draft spots have all become immediate contributors?
That has happened six times in the past 10 years, including last season with Las Vegas tight end Brock Bowers (112 catches, 1,194 yards), Jacksonville defensive tackle Maason Smith (three sacks in 11 games and five starts) and linebacker Payton Wilson (78 tackles and four starts for Pittsburgh).
So the past decade suggests you have a 60% chance of landing three immediate contributors with the Dolphins’ first three picks.
▪ What about finding longterm starters with each of those picks?
Though it’s too early to tell on the past two drafts, six of the previous eight drafts produced long-term starters at each of those specific picks (13, 48, 98). In other words, all three players taken those years became good starters six times out of eight.
Of particular note: The 2015 draft: offensive tackle Andrus Peat, linebacker Denzel Perryman and cornerback Steven Nelson all have been good NFL players with long careers. The 2021 draft produced three long-term offensive line starters in those spots: Rashawn Slater, Aaron Banks and Quinn Meinerz.
▪ What are your bust chances at No. 13?
Very low.
Nine of the 10 selected in that spot since 2015 became long-term starters — Peat, Laremy Tunsil, Haason Reddick, Daron Payne, Wilkins, Tristan Wirfs, Slater, Davis and Bowers (we’re assuming this with Bowers after one season).
Green Bay’s Lukas Vas Ness, selected 13th in 2023, figures to become a starter at some point; he has seven sacks in his first two seasons.
▪ What are your bust chances at No. 48?
Low.
There has been only one bust at that spot in 10 years: offensive tackle Jason Spriggs, a 2016 Green Bay pick who made 10 NFL starts in a six-year career.
Most of the players picked at 48 have had good careers: Perryman, running back Joe Mixon, McCoy, defensive lineman Darell Taylor, Banks, guard Cody Mauch.
▪ What are your bust chances at 98? It’s not as bad as you might think.
Only two of the past 10 players selected at 98 haven’t worked out at all: Former Grambling State receiver Chad Williams in 2017 (eight starts, 20 career receptions) and former Baylor defensive tackle Siaki Ika, who was released by the Browns in 2024, just 17 months after drafting him and has bounced around practice squads in the year since.
The 98th pick, over the past decade, has produced one four-time second-team All-Pro (safety Justin Simmons) and several good NFL players: Nelson (115 starts), tight end Jordan Akins (36 starts), linebackers Quincy Williams (69) and Malik Harrison (34), Meinerz, Robinson and productive 2024 Steelers rookie Wilson.
Bottom line? The past 10 years generally give hope that the Dolphins can find immediate help with their first three picks. But their draft track record has been spotty in recent years — some very good (Wilkins, Robert Hunt, Andrew Van Ginkel, DeVon Achane, Jevon Holland, etc.) and some not very good (Noah Igbinoghene, Channing Tindall, Liam Eichenberg, Cam Smith, etc).
By not spending on pricey free agents, the Dolphins simply must nail all three picks.
This story was originally published April 22, 2025 at 10:21 AM.
