The stunning final numbers on the drop in Dolphins big plays. And McDaniel’s explanation
A lot about this Dolphins season was predictable: injury problems, offensive line shortcomings, and mostly inadequate play against good teams and in cold weather.
But one development was a stunning as snow flurries in Kendall:
This Mike McDaniel offense returned all the same skill players — and added one of the top receiving tight ends in football in Jonnu Smith — and yet regressed from one of the league’s best big-play teams to one of the worst.
The numbers are reflective of what your eyes told you:
In 2023, the Dolphins had 59 passing plays of 20 yards or more, which was eighth most in the league. This season, they had 37; only the dreadful Giants and Patriots had fewer.
And there’s this: This past season, no team had fewer passing plays of 40 yards or more than Miami, which had three. In 2023, the Dolphins had the fifth most (12).
We mentioned this week how Tagovailoa’s attempts, completions and accuracy plunged in passes thrown 20-plus air yards in 2024: On passes that traveled at least 20 air yards, Tagovailoa was 27th in passer rating, at a poor 78.5, and went 9 for 24 for 364 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, completing just 37.5 percent of those passes (23rd in the league).
Conversely, in 2023, among quarterbacks who threw at least 40 such “20-plus-air-yard” passes, Tagovailoa completed the fourth-highest percentage of them (50.8) and had the third-most completions (32).
Though Tyreek Hill downplayed the issue all season, he apparently was so exasperated with his usage that he told reporters afterward that he wants out and hasn’t publicly walked it back since.
So what the heck happened? McDaniel gave a lengthy answer this week. Among the most significant parts of that response:
“All defenders were deeper, wider and there’s probably two safeties standing deep presnap where they were vulnerable in years previous. So the system, if you execute it appropriately within it, you have to make people pay for what they are taking away. And once you make people pay, then it opens it back up for those short drives that we all love and those explosive plays. And I think it took us a little bit longer for various reasons, including Tua’s first injury that I feel like we didn’t start seeing a normal defense until the Raiders [game on Nov. 17].
“We probably have gone 25 games in a row where teams are playing or introducing different coverages or different personnel groups or matching personnels differently than what they’ve put on tape, but as you grow as an offense and execute the finer details of all three levels, you are best prepared to make people pay for defending the deep stuff.”
The problem is that the short stuff, while often effective, is difficult to sustain against good teams. Drives against the Bills, Packers and Houston kept being interrupted by penalties and fumbles and interceptions and breakdowns by a deficient offensive line and other things that typically make it difficult to mount 16-play drives against stout defenses.
Whatever the answer, McDaniel needs to fix it. You simply cannot have two of the league’s seven highest-paid receivers and not change your approach after those receivers (Hill and Waddle) finish 30th and 44th, respectively, in receiving yards.
But you won’t hear McDaniel say that Hill and Waddle need to catch more deep passes – even though that seems obvious – because he doesn’t think in those terms. His mind tells him to seize on what the defense is leaving vulnerable, not forcing something that isn’t there.
So when when he was asked if Hill will remain the No.1 option offensively, he added a caveat: “I mean I think if they’re not doubling him. I don’t see effective offense predetermining what you’re going to do regardless of defense. Everybody gets paid in this league. I don’t go into a season saying we’re going to be this…
“I don’t think it’s effective offense to throw the ball up into double coverage and throw to where the defense is. And so we’ll always make sure that we complement each other so that there’s no one asset that people can double. You have to make people pay other places. Case in point, Jonnu Smith’s productivity. I think he really helped us out with taking advantage of the space that was given up to cover some of the deep zones from both ‘Reek’ and Waddle.”
Also hurtful was the reduction in running plays of 20 yards or more from 17 in 2023 (third most) to 11 (eighth fewest).
The substandard offensive line remains at the core of the reduction in big plays both running and passing: The offensive line couldn’t be trusted to give McDaniel and Tagovailoa enough time to allow deep throws to develop.
And the line couldn’t create enough holes to spring big runs, one reason why Miami’s yards per carry dropped from a league-leading 5.0 in 2023 to 4.0, which was tied for 27th.
Schedule note
One of the frustrating elements of the Dolphins regressing to 8-9 and missing the playoffs is the fact that Miami ended up squandering the league’s easiest schedule.
Dolphins opponents won just 41.9% of their games, the worst in the league.
Miami played only four playoff teams — Buffalo twice, Green Bay, Houston and the Rams, and went 1-4 in those games.
The Dolphins won’t have that luxury of an easy schedule next season; they will play six playoff teams and two that barely missed postseason (the Bengals and Falcons).
At home, Miami will play Buffalo, the Jets, New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, the Chargers, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Washington.
One of these games will be played in a foreign country, likely Brazil.
Besides the three AFC East teams, Miami’s 2025 road schedule will include Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Carolina and trips to Cleveland and Indianapolis for a second year in a row.
The games against the Colts, Chargers and Commanders are the result of those teams finishing second in their divisions and Miami finishing second in the AFC East.
This story was originally published January 9, 2025 at 5:51 PM.
