The Dolphins’ looming quandary with Tua Tagovailoa and the consequences of either path
Already $12 million over the NFL’s 2025 salary cap, the Dolphins will need to perform their usual cap gymnastics to fill a dozen or more needs this offseason.
But their decision on one of their players, in particular, will be particularly fascinating.
As cap expert Joel Corry noted, the Dolphins could do a max restructure of Tagovailoa’s contract this offseason, one in which his $25.046 million base salary for 2025 would drop to $1.17 million. That would create $19.1 million in cap room and lower his 2025 cap hit from $39.2 million to $20.1 million.
But there’s a downside to that: As Corry stated, his cap hit every season from 2026 through 2029 would then jump by $4,775,200 million, which would further increase the dead money hits for the Dolphins if they choose to part with him after the 2026 or 2027 seasons. (Moving on from Tagovailoa now or next offseason would not be prudent financially.)
According to overthecap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald, “the first real option for release of Tua would be in 2027 when they would still have about $64 million on the cap to account for but only $20 million would remain guaranteed.” But it’s important to note: that $20 million is only guaranteed for injury, however.
On the third day of the 2026 league year (in mid-March next year), $3 million of Tagovailoa’s 2027 salary becomes guaranteed. But there are no guarantees at all for 2028.
Tagovailoa’s $31 million salary in 2027 and $41.4 million salary in 2028 are not guaranteed.
If the Dolphins, after next season, decide to keep Tagovailoa for the 2026 season and then make a decision whether to keep him beyond, they would thus be on the hook only for $20 million more in guarantees.
Tagovailoa’s deal included $167.171 million guaranteed, of which $93.171 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
As it stands, if the Dolphins cut Tagovailoa in the spring of 2027, they would have two options with his dead money:
1). Take a $43.8 million dead money hit, but no dead money hit after that, if he’s released before June 1.
2). Take a $16.4 million dead money hit in 2027 and a $27.4 million dead money hit in 2028 by releasing him with a post-June 1 designation.
But those hits would rise significantly with a restructure this offseason. If the Dolphins do that max restructure in the next six weeks to give them an extra $19 million in cap space this offseason, his 2026 cap hit would rise from $56.4 million to $61.2 million.
There also would be $4.8 million increases for his cap hits in 2027 ($53.4 million as it stands now), in 2028 ($65.8 million) and 2029 ($11.1 million cap hit even though he’s not on the team).
What’s clear is this: Whether the Dolphins restructure Tagovailoa or not, he needs to stay healthy and produce, because anything else would be devastating to the franchise.
Among other moves that would clear cap space this offseason:
▪ Cutting tight end Durham Smythe drops his Dolphins 2025 cap number from $4.8 million to $2.6 million before June 1.
▪ Cutting running back Raheem Mostert drops his Dolphins 2025 cap number from $3.9 million to $1 million before June 1.
▪ Cutting punter Jake Bailey drops his Dolphins 2025 cap number from $2.25 million to $550,000 before June 1.
▪ Restructuring Bradley Chubb, Austin Jackson and Zach Sieler would save a combined $24 million in space this offseason.
▪ Moving on from Terron Armstead after June 1 would drop his 2025 Dolphins cap hit from $22.8 million to $7.8 million.
▪ Trading Tyreek Hill after June 1 would drop his 2025 Dolphins cap hit from $27.7 million to $12.7 million.
▪ Releasing Kendall Fuller after June 1 would drop his 2025 Dolphins cap hit from $8.2 million to $1.3 million.
▪ Releasing fullback Alec Ingold after June 1 would cut his 2025 Dolphins cap hit from $4.9 million to $1.2 million.
This story was originally published January 22, 2025 at 2:00 PM.
