Examining eight issues that keep dooming Dolphins against Buffalo. No solutions in sight
After the Big Tank of 2019, after the trades for stars Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey, after owner Stephen Ross spent hundreds of millions on coaches and executives who haven’t produced a single playoff win, it seemed reasonable to expect the Dolphins -- by year six of this rebuild -- to reach the level of the Buffalo Bills, if not surpass them.
Instead, the Dolphins still seemingly cannot construct a roster or a game plan to play toe to toe with the kings of the AFC East, let alone overtake them. Buffalo (6-2) enters Sunday’s meeting in Orchard Park (1 p.m., CBS-4) with a 3 1/2 game division lead against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 13 in this series, a dreadful stretch that began at the end of the 2018 season -- pushing Ross toward a rebuild -- and continued with a 31-10 drubbing in Week 2, on a night Tua Tagovailoa was lost for four games due to a concussion.
Along the way, the Dolphins have been outscored 443-248 in those 13 games, with the Bills administering six shellackings of 20 points or more. That’s an average of 34 points per game by the Bills over those 13 games, compared with 19 for Miami.
And the Bills aren’t using any new, evolved formula over these seven years of Dolphins stompings, a stretch of dominance that began - not coincidentally - in Josh Allen’s rookie season.
Problem is, the Dolphins have been unable to change the fundamental factors that keep dooming them against Buffalo.
Among them:
▪ Inability to do anything to stop Allen:
He’s 11-2 against Miami, with an absurd 34-to-7 touchdown pass-to-interception ratio. His 110.0 career passer rating against Miami is his best among every team that he has played more than twice. The Jets and Patriots, conversely, have held Allen to 84.4 and 85.2 passer ratings.
His past six games against Miami have been exceptional: 16 TDs, 4 interceptions, and passing yard totals of 400, 304, 352 and 320, 359 and 139 in that 31-10 route in September when he needed to throw only 19 times.
His 640 rushing yards against Miami (on 7.4 per carry) are his most against any team. The Dolphins have tried spies, blitzes, no blitzes, and nothing seems to work.
The notion of using 2022 third-round pick Channing Tindall as a spy on mobile quarterbacks was abandoned after 11 snaps against Justin Fields two years ago. Tindall hasn’t played at all this season.
▪ Tagovailoa has been worse against the Bills than any other team:
Just 1-7 against the Bills, Tagovailoa has his most career interceptions against Buffalo (10 in eight games), his worst TD-to-INT ratio against Buffalo (7 to 10), and his second-lowest passer rating (at 74.1, a bit better than his 70.5 in two games against Tennessee).
He has fumbled three times and taken 13 sacks against the Bills.
At least one, if not two, of his three interceptions in the Thursday night game against Buffalo were not his fault, but his overall night before the concussion (17 for 25, 145 yards, 1 TD, 3 picks) was pretty reflective of how it has gone for him against the Bills. Ja’Marcus Ingram had two of the INTs, Christian Benford one.
Benford and Taylor Rapp intercepted Tagovailoa in Week 18 last year, meaning the Dolphins quarterback has two touchdowns and five interceptions and just 318 yards passing in his last seven quarters against Buffalo.
In the past, some of the damage against Tagovailoa was administered by safeties Jordan Poyer (who now plays for Miami) and Micah Hyde (who intercepted him last year and is now out of the league).
▪ Buffalo torching Miami by isolating running backs, tight ends and receivers against Dolphins linebackers:
In their last six meetings, Allen has an absurd 139.6 passer rating when specifically targeting Miami’s inside linebackers (David Long Jr., Duke Riley, Jordyn Brooks and former Dolphins Jerome Baker and Elandon Roberts).
The stunning numbers: 51 completions in 59 attempts for 552 yards and 6 TDs. That’s 10.8 per catch, meaning every completion from Allen against a Dolphins linebacker essentially averages a first down.
Of late, much of the damage has been done against Long – including four completions in four targets for 53 yards and a touchdown in the Sept. 12 Thursday night game.
Allen went 12 for 12 when targeting Dolphins inside linebackers in the Bills’ AFC East clinching Week 18 Sunday night win in Miami in January.
The Dolphins must avoid situations where a Bills back or tight end is matched against Long.
Brooks wasn’t great in coverage his first three years for Seattle, but he was much better for the Seahawks last year. He held the Colts’ Anthony Richardson to no completions in three attempts against him two weeks ago, and held Allen to one completion in three throws (for nine yards) in Week 2.
Expect the Bills to try to get tight end Dalton Kincaid - who has 28 catches for 300 yards (10.7 per reception) and two touchdowns - matched against Dolphins linebackers or potentially Poyer.
In Sunday’s loss to Arizona, Cardinals tight end Trey McBride caught all five passes thrown in Long’s coverage area for 68 yards. McBride caught his only target against Brooks, for six yards, and his only target against Poyer for 17 yards.
▪ Third/slot cornerback problems against Allen:
Kader Kohou, who has played well this season but missed the Arizona game with a neck injury, has been a disaster against Buffalo:
In six career games vs. the Bills, Kohou has allowed 25 completion in 35 Allen throws in his coverage area, for 364 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. That’s a 133.5 passer rating.
Though Stefon Diggs (now with Houston) is responsible for a large share of those poor Kohou numbers, Bills slot receiver Khalil Shakir has caught both targets for 40 yards against Kohou.
Kohou’s status for Sunday is not yet clear.
▪ Jalen Ramsey must play better, too:
Allen has completed five of six passes for 80 yards against Ramsey in two games since the Dolphins traded for the Pro Bowl cornerback.
In his previous game against Allen (for the Rams, in 2022), Ramsey allowed five of six passes thrown by Allen in Ramsey’s coverage area to be caught for 103 yards and two touchdowns
▪ Lack of a consistent pass rush and inability to stop the Bills’ pass rush:
The Dolphins have had no sacks, or just one sack, in five of their last nine games against Buffalo. Miami got 13 pressures on Allen, but not a single sack, in the Sept. 12 game; that has been a consistent theme of these matchups because of Allen’s ability to evade pressure.
And Miami enters with no sacks in its past two games this season and just nine (lowest in the AFC) in seven games in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Bills have 24 sacks, compared to 12 for Miami, during their past nine meetings with Miami.
Greg Rousseau had 3.5 sacks in six games against Miami; Ed Oliver and Von Miller had sacks in the first meeting this season.
▪ The soft spot of the Dolphins offensive line has struggled against Bills pass rushers:
Right guard Liam Eichenberg has allowed two sacks and nine pressures in his last three games against Buffalo, though both of those sacks came when he was playing center.
Guards Robert Jones (a starter at left guard) and Lester Cotton (a backup) have each given up sacks against Miami in the two meetings this calendar year.
Right tackle Austin Jackson must play better than during the Sept. 12 meeting, when he permitted seven pressures and a sack.
▪ Special teams issues:
The Dolphins have either no yards or one yard on punt returns in four of their last five games against Buffalo. The Bills, conversely, won the AFC East last year thanks partly to Deonte Harty’s 96 yard punt return TD against Miami in Week 18.
This story was originally published October 29, 2024 at 3:57 PM.
