A season of ups and downs leads Dolphins to predictable foe for division crown
It was a loss in the first month of the season but it was also a reminder of how far the Dolphins needed to go to reach their ultimate goals.
Miami’s 3-0 start to the 2023 season, which included a 70-point outing and 50-point win the week before, came to a screeching halt in Orchard Park, New York. The 48-20 defeat to the Buffalo Bills was “humbling” to some, in the words of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — and reinforced the hierarchy in the AFC East.
“I think the Buffalo Bills proved why they are the team that our whole division is trying to beat,” Mike McDaniel said after the second-largest defeat of his young head coaching career.
Three months later, the Dolphins have an opportunity to display their growth from one of the lowest moments of the season with a marquee victory that could propel their championship ambitions.
The Week 18 rematch always figured to have the possibility for playoff ramifications. And now the matchup, placed in the league’s “Sunday Night Football” slot as the conclusion to the NFL regular season, will ultimately decide who can tout their status as the top team in the division.
With a win — or tie — at home as small underdogs, Miami (11-5) can clinch the AFC East title for the first time since 2008. The victory would also lock the Dolphins into the AFC’s No. 2 seed for the playoffs and ensure the team has a pair of home postseason games through the divisional round.
A loss would return the division crown to the Bills (10-6) for the fourth consecutive year. It would also drop Miami to the sixth seed and send the team to Kansas City for a matchup with the Chiefs in the wild-card round.
For a team that is 19-3 in its last 22 home games but 4-4 away from Hard Rock Stadium — and was just dealt its worst loss of the season in a 56-19 road loss to the Baltimore Ravens — this could be the difference between an extended postseason run and a quick exit for the second straight season.
“Of course you want to win the division and also you want to play as many games as you can in the playoffs at home so it means a lot,” safety DeShon Elliott said. “Being able to [get the No. 2 seed] would be big for us. Just getting that bad taste out of our mouth, it would be great for us to finish the season with a win going into the playoffs.”
The two teams have taken meandering paths to the final game of the regular season. The Dolphins jumped out to a three-game division lead with five weeks left, while the Bills have been in must-win situations over the last month to compensate for a 6-6 start.
Buffalo has won its last four games to pull itself back into contention for the AFC East title — or a wild-card berth, which could occur even with a loss. A pair of defeats for the Dolphins in the same time frame, first a fourth-quarter collapse at home against the Tennessee Titans and then the 37-point loss to the Ravens, have also opened the window for the Bills to snatch the division crown from Miami.
It’s almost poetic that what stands in the way of the Dolphins’ first AFC East title in 15 years is an opponent that has recently been an insurmountable hurdle.
“We are very fortunate to have the opportunity to have one game that if you win, you win the division, which is the way, really, it should be,” McDaniel said. “You should beat all the teams in your division if you want to win it.”
Miami is 2-10 in its last 12 matchups against Buffalo, including last year’s season-ending loss in the wild-card round. That track record coincides with the Bills’ 2018 drafting of quarterback Josh Allen, who has typically played his best against the Dolphins.
Since McDaniel was hired as head coach, the gap has closed. Three of the last four games have been decided by three points or less. But Miami’s four-touchdown loss on Oct. 1 was enough to rethink how the team approached everything.
It led to a change in practice, McDaniel said, with more of a focus on simulating game-like situations. Tagovailoa said for the offense that meant a more deliberate approach to the pre-snap operation, getting the play call from the huddle, and lining up in a timely fashion before snapping the ball.
“If you get yourself as close to that mindset of the game in practice, you’re getting more reps at how to act and react in a game ... you’re as good in the game as you’re able to execute your assignments in practice,” McDaniel said. “I think guys have started to understand what that really means, how you can use practice instead of letting practice use you.”
Since Week 4, the complexion of the Dolphins and Bills has changed, mainly in the wake of injuries. Miami has overcome a litany of injuries on both sides of the ball — the availability of offensive starters Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert is in question — and unlocked different dimensions of its offense. The defense has also taken off but will be without two starters, outside linebacker Bradley Chubb (knee) and cornerback Xavien Howard (foot), who were injured in Baltimore. Buffalo has also prevailed despite injuries to key contributors, most notably on defense, and found balance after firing Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator.
“It felt like at that point in the season, maybe the players were running the system that we have in each phase. Now it feels like they’re owning the system, and there’s an incredible power to that,” McDaniel said of his team’s growth.
All this leads to a prime-time stage and a game that could not only mark a new day in the division, but also set the Dolphins in a quality position for a playoff run — all at the expense of a bitter rival.
“I’ve been here four years and I’ve only beat them once,” said right guard Robert Hunt, who will return to the lineup after a month-long absence because of a hamstring injury. “So to beat these guys, it would be a good day. I’ll have a great night if we win.”
This story was originally published January 6, 2024 at 5:00 AM.
