What Dolphins must do to make playoffs, win division, claim No. 1 or No. 2 seed and more
With three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Dolphins continue to have a wide range of possible outcomes - anywhere from claiming the No. 1 seed in the AFC to missing the playoffs altogether.
Asking and answering eight questions on the Dolphins’ playoff picture:
▪ So let’s keep it simple: How do the Dolphins (10-4) hold off steamrolling Buffalo - which drubbed the Cowboys, 31-10, on Sunday - and win the AFC East?
Miami would clinch the AFC East with any collection of two Dolphins wins and two Bills losses.
But Miami shouldn’t count on Buffalo losing because the Bills will be heavy favorites in their next two games: on the road against a Chargers team missing quarterback Justin Herbert, and home against a Patriots team suffering through its worst season this century.
So the Dolphins can win the division title by either 1) beating both Dallas on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium and winning Dec. 31 at Baltimore; or 2) by winning one of the next two and hoping the Bills lose to the Chargers or Patriots or 3) by beating Buffalo when the teams meet Jan. 6 or 7 in Miami Gardens, regardless of all other outcomes.
▪ If the Bills win the division, can Miami still make the playoffs?
Absolutely. But the Dolphins would then open postseason on the road.
Miami can clinch a playoff spot simply by winning any one of its final three games.
▪ What about getting the No. 1 seed? How can Miami do that?
Baltimore’s win against Jacksonville on Sunday gave that path more clarity: There is no longer a way that the Dolphins can get the top seed without defeating the Ravens. Beating Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo would give Miami the No. 1 seed.
If the Dolphins beat Dallas and Baltimore but lose to Buffalo, Miami would be the No. 1 seed if Baltimore loses at San Francisco or home against Pittsburgh and Kansas City loses one of its final three games (home to Las Vegas and Cincinnati and at the Chargers).
▪ If the Dolphins can’t get the No. 1 seed, can they at least get the No. 2 seed, which would mean home games the first two weeks of the playoffs (assuming they win the first)?
Yes, but that would require some help. If the Dolphins beat Dallas and Buffalo but lose to the Ravens --thus making Baltimore the likely top seed – the Dolphins would need a Kansas City loss to claim the No. 2 seed ahead of the Chiefs.
And the Chiefs have the easiest remaining schedule of all these teams, with the Raiders, Bengals and Chargers.
▪ I don’t mean to sound alarmist. But if the Dolphins lose all of their remaining games, will they still make the playoffs?
It’s likely, but not definite.
Here’s one scenario that would leave Miami out of the playoffs altogether:
1). The Dolphins lose every game and the Bills beat the Chargers or Patriots;
2). Jacksonville beats Tampa Bay, visiting Carolina and Tennessee;
3). Indianapolis beats Atlanta, the Raiders and Houston (the last two of those games at home);
4). Cincinnati wins at the Steelers, at the Chiefs and home against Cleveland;
5). Cleveland wins at Houston and home against the Jets. (The Browns might only need to win one game because of a common-games Dolphins tiebreaker that remains unresolved.)
There are other nightmarish paths to the Dolphins missing the playoffs, but all are complicated and unlikely.
The Dolphins remain in good position because of their 7-3 conference record, which will give them a tiebreaker edge with several teams if they win one more game. (Remember, the Dolphins clinch a playoff berth with one more win.) They already have clinched a tiebreaker edge over the Bengals (3-6 in the conference) even if Miami loses every game.
▪ Is there any chance the Dolphins could end up playing the Bills two weeks in a row?
That’s absolutely possible. If the Bills win the AFC East, there’s a good chance Buffalo would be the No. 3 seed and play the sixth seed (or the second wild card team) in the playoffs. That could be Miami, if the Browns (9-5) remain the first wild card team and the Dolphins don’t fall behind the third and final wild card qualifier.
Keep in mind that the top wild card seed (the fifth seed) appears on pace to play at the AFC South champion (Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis are all tied).
If the Dolphins win the division but the Bills finish 10-7 or 11-6, there’s also a chance that Miami and Buffalo could play in South Florida on two consecutive weekends.
▪ You’re making my head explode. Tell me what I should root for next weekend.
1). Root for a Dolphins win against Dallas because that clinches a playoff spot for Miami.
2). Root for a Chargers win against the visiting Bills, because that would reduce the Dolphins’ AFC East magic number to one.
3). Root for the Steelers to beat the Bengals (to further reduce Cincinnati as a threat to overtake Miami in the wild card seedings if the Dolphins lose the division).
4). Root for the Texans to beat the Browns, to improve Miami’s chances of being the fifth (top wild card) seed if the Dolphins lose the division.
5) Root for the Falcons to beat the Colts (same reason as rooting for the Texans).
6). Root for Tampa Bay to beat Jacksonville (see the previous reason).
7). Root for the Raiders to beat the Chiefs (to improve Miami’s chances of finishing with the No. 2 seed if it loses one game but wins the AFC East) and
8). Root for the 49ers to beat the visiting Ravens (to keep alive the Dolphins’ No. 1 seed chances if Miami beats Baltimore but loses another game).
▪ Could the Dolphins’ 1 p.m. game at Baltimore on Dec. 31 be moved to 4:25 p.m. or flexed into prime time?
That scenario is expected to be discussed by the league early this week. Because the Bengals have been winning without Joe Burrow and because of Patrick Mahomes’ popularity, the NFL has been leaning toward keeping Cincinnati-Kansas City as the CBS 4:25 p.m. game that day, instead of flipping it with Dolphins-Ravens. But that isn’t set in stone.
The NBC game on New Year’s Eve – Green Bay (6-8) vs. Minnesota (7-7) - appears in at least some peril because the Packers have fallen below .500. It’s possible but not certain that the league would move that game to the afternoon and replace it with Dolphins-Ravens or less likely, Saints-Buccaneers.
This story was originally published December 18, 2023 at 10:14 AM.
