Where Dolphins now stand in battle for playoff spot, division title. And problems emerge
For a quarter century, Dolphins fans have begun to understand that they cannot fully trust happiness, that there is invariably always another shoe to drop.
That shoe dropped Monday night, in gut-wrenching fashion. Just as soon as Miami became the first NFL team since 1976 to lose a game in regulation in which it led by at least 14 points with 2:55 left, the question became what happens from here.
In the wake of this 28-27 loss to Tennessee, will the Dolphins (9-4) unravel? Or will they show mettle against a closing schedule that toughens considerably?
“I don’t think this is the same Dolphins team that everyone thinks about,” quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said. “We’ve got a lot of really good players. We’ve got really good coaches. It’s one loss home this year.
“It’s not like the world ends because we lost this game. We’re human. We’ll continue to get better from this. This is the NFL; no one is perfect.”
The loss left Miami in an unusual position — still in control of its fate regarding the top seed in the conference but also now very much at risk of losing the AFC East, with a small chance to fall out of the playoffs altogether.
Where things stand for the Dolphins:
▪ Winning the AFC East: The Dolphins entered Week 14 with a magic number of three to claim the division title (a combined three wins or Bills losses) and it remains that way.
But even though Buffalo (7-6) still trails Miami by two games, the Bills are decently positioned to win the division unless the Dolphins can beat good teams down the stretch.
If the Bills win their next three (home to Dallas, at the Chargers, home to New England), Miami must win its next three (home to the Jets and Cowboys, at Baltimore) to avoid a scenario in which the Dolphins and Bills would be playing for the AFC East title in Miami in Week 18.
The Dolphins could clinch the AFC East in the next two weeks by beating the Jets and Dallas, and by Buffalo losing to the Cowboys or Chargers. The New York Times’ computer formula still gives the Dolphins a 77 percent chance to win the division.
Only division winners begin the playoffs with a home game.
▪ Making the playoffs: There are scenarios where the Dolphins could make the postseason with one win or one win and a tie, but it would require help. Two wins likely get them in, but even that’s not assured.
If the Bills win the AFC East, Miami would be competing for three wild card spots with Cleveland (8-5) and five teams (other than the Bills) that are 7-6.
The Browns and those five teams (Colts, Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Broncos) have several games against each other, which would eliminate the possibility of some of those teams winning enough to overtake Miami, if the Dolphins win two games to get to 11 wins.
One scenario that could leave Miami out of the playoffs, even if the Dolphins win two games: Pittsburgh and Houston winning out, and Cleveland finishing very strong.
But the New York Times formula gives Miami a 97 percent chance to make the playoffs.
▪ Clinching the No. 1 seed: The Dolphins (9-4) can claim the top seed in the AFC if they win their final four games: home against the Jets and Dallas, at Baltimore and home against Buffalo.
Besides Baltimore (10-3) and Miami, no other AFC team has fewer than five losses. So a win at Baltimore would give Miami the tiebreaker with the Ravens (and the No. 1 seed) if the Dolphins win all their games.
▪ Clinching the No. 2 seed: If the Dolphins win their home games but lose at Baltimore, Miami would need the Chiefs to lose one game and likely would need Jacksonville to lose one game.
The Chiefs finish with a relatively easy schedule: at New England, Las Vegas, Cincinnati and at the Chargers. Kansas City would win a tiebreaker with Miami by virtue of a head to head win against Miami.
The Jaguars finish with games against Baltimore, at Tampa, Carolina and at Tennessee. A Dolphins-Jaguars tiebreaker remains unresolved.
The team with the No. 2 seed would get two playoff games at home, presuming it wins the first.
As the Dolphins look ahead to Sunday’s home game against the Jets (1 p.m., CBS), several areas that were damaging in Monday’s loss must be addressed. Among them:
▪ Offensive line: With Connor Williams leaving after six snaps with a knee injury — and now out for the season with a torn ACL — Liam Eichenberg moved to center and struggled, with one bad snap (leading to a fumble) and three penalties (two of which were accepted). He also permitted two pressures.
With Eichenberg shifting from right guard to center early in the game, the Dolphins played two backup guards (Lester Cotton and Robert Jones) and a backup left tackle (Kendall Lamm), in place of injured Terron Armstead. Jones relinquished two sacks, per Pro Football Focus.
The Dolphins permitted five sacks; Miami entered having yielded only 18 sacks in its first 12 games, which was third-fewest in the league.
“I think one of the toughest parts of that is a lot of those guys haven’t gotten reps at some of the positions,” Tagovailoa said, with Eichenberg focusing on guard in practice in recent weeks.
“It’s not to say that we practice for situations like this to happen. It just so happened that Connor went down and we already had a couple of our guys out.”
▪ Backup safeties struggling, pass breakdowns and limited pass rush:
With DeShon Elliott limited to 53 snaps because of injuries and Jevon Holland missing a second consecutive game because of knee issues, Brandon Jones was required to play all 71 defensive snaps and No. 4 safety Elijah Campbell played 18.
Both backup safeties played on the Titans’ two TD drives in the final four minutes and had breakdowns; Campbell allowed a 23-yard reception.
“I don’t like to use excuses, but when you don’t get to practice with certain guys, that hurts a little bit sometimes,” cornerback Jalen Ramsey said.
Xavien Howard allowed four receptions in 10 targets for 77 yards; Ramsey allowed four in five targets for 75 yards; and Kader Kohou permitted a touchdown reception.
The Dolphins didn’t blitz the Titans much in the fourth quarter, and Miami had only one sack in the game.
▪ Red zone offense: The Dolphins scored two touchdowns on five possessions inside the Titans’ 20-yard line.
“You can point to that as the number one reason we didn’t win the game,” Mike McDaniel said. “For me, you call plays for them to work — and they didn’t. We did out of character things to lose the game.”
This story was originally published December 12, 2023 at 10:47 AM.
