How Dolphins can clinch playoffs, division, No. 1 seed and No. 2 seed. And Baker news
Sunday’s results generally helped the Dolphins’ playoff chances, particularly their odds of hosting two playoff games (presuming they win the first).
A quick primer on where the Dolphins stand heading into the Monday night game against visiting Tennessee (8:15 p.m., ESPN, CW-39):
▪ To clinch the AFC East:
Because of Buffalo’s win in Kansas City, Miami’s magic number to win the division remains three. In other words, the Dolphins need any combination of three wins or Bills losses to win the division for the first time since 2008 and host a playoff game.
The Dolphins play at home against Tennessee, the Jets and Dallas, then play at Baltimore, and then close at home against Buffalo.
The Bills host Dallas, go to the Chargers, host New England and then close at Miami.
The Bills’ best hope would be winning out, and hoping the Dolphins lose two of their next four and then lose to Buffalo. That scenario would give Buffalo the AFC East title, thus preventing Miami from hosting a playoff game.
▪ To clinch a playoff spot:
Two wins likely get Miami in, because even if the Bills win out (and the Dolphins lose their last three to give the Bills the AFC East title), the Dolphins — at 11 wins — could be beaten out for a wild card spot only if one or more of the 7-6 teams win out and win a tiebreaker with Miami.
Because of a likely superior conference record, the Dolphins would still be positioned to win a tiebreaker with several of those 7-6 teams. And there are several games pitting the six teams that are 7-6, which would naturally prevent most of them from winning out.
As noted, two wins and a Bills loss give the Dolphins the AFC East title.
There are also scenarios where the Dolphins can clinch a playoff spot with one win and a tie.
▪ To clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC:
The two paths:
A). If the Dolphins win at Baltimore Dec. 31 and win three of their four remaining home games.
or
B). If the Dolphins win their four home games, lose at Baltimore but the Ravens lose two among their three other games (at Jaguars, at 49ers, home to Pittsburgh).
▪ To clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC:
This is where the Dolphins received the biggest lift over the weekend, because of losses by the Chiefs and Jaguars.
Clinching the No. 2 seed means Miami would host two playoff games if the Dolphins win the first. Only the top seed gets a first-round bye.
The Dolphins can clinch (at least) the No. 2 seed with four victories or with three wins and a loss by Kansas City and (possibly) a loss by Jacksonville.
The Chiefs finish with a relatively easy schedule: at New England, Las Vegas, Cincinnati and at the Chargers. Kansas City would win a tiebreaker with Miami by virtue of a head to head win against Miami.
The Jaguars finish with games against Baltimore, at Tampa, Carolina and at Tennessee.
The Dolphins have a superior conference record to the Jaguars (6-2 to 6-4). But if those teams finish tied for the No. 2 seed and their conference record is the same, then their record against common opponents would determine the tiebreaker, and the Jaguars have an edge there (for now).
If Jacksonville loses to Baltimore and Miami wins three games, the Dolphins would be assured of winning a tiebreaker with the Jaguars.
BAKER UPDATE
The Dolphins’ decision to place Jerome Baker on injured reserve with his MCL injury means he can return no sooner than the regular-season finale against Buffalo.
But agent Drew Rosenhaus said on his weekly WSVN-Fox 7 segment on Sunday night that Baker should be able to return this season.
“Just talking to the doctors, the doctors feel like he will be back this season,” Rosenhaus said. “This isn’t going to be a season-ending injury. I don’t want to put any pressure on him by putting a specific time frame…
“He’s a fast healer. If I had to make a prediction, I would say he would be back by the end of the season. Whether that’s in four weeks or five weeks, I don’t know the answer to that.”
The Dolphins can bring only one more player back off injured reserve, and Baker is the favorite for that spot. Isaiah Wynn and Salvon Ahmed also are on injured reserve.
This story was originally published December 11, 2023 at 10:02 AM.
