Five questions that could decide the second half of the Miami Dolphins’ season
Each NFL season comes with unexpected developments, but the Dolphins have weathered that spontaneity well amid a 6-3 start at the bye.
There are still eight games remaining until the playoffs start, though, and much can happen between now and when the postseason begins in early January.
From the Dolphins’ health status to the competition around the AFC, here are five questions that could decide the second half of Miami’s season.
Can the Dolphins stay healthy?
This question applies to every team because postseason success not only depends on late-season play but how healthy you are at that time. The Dolphins were able to deal with a string of injuries to key players in the first half of the season and could be at their healthiest in their first game after the bye against the Raiders. So much attention was placed on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history after a spate of concussions last season but he fortunately hasn’t missed any snaps due to injury in 2023. If the Dolphins can remain relatively healthy, their roster is just as talented as any in the league.
Can the Dolphins’ offense fix its road issues?
Miami has the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL and the team has been especially dynamic at home, averaging 43.5 points and 516 total yards. The offense hasn’t been nearly as formidable away from Hard Rock Stadium, however. When the Dolphins don’t play at home, the offense is averaging 22.2 points and 370.8 yards. Some of the best defenses Miami has faced have been on the road, but issues from last year — pre-snap penalties and slow starts — have carried over into this season. Five of the Dolphins’ final eight games are at home but they have matchups against the Jets and Ravens where crowd noise could be impactful. For Miami’s timing-based offense, these issues have to be addressed, especially if the team doesn’t have home-field advantage in the playoffs.
How close is the defense to reaching elite status?
The Dolphins’ defense got off to a slow start with new coordinator Vic Fangio, as players adjusted to a new scheme. The unit also had to compensate for the absence of key players who were injured. The defense has come around in recent weeks and, at full strength against the Chiefs, had arguably its best performance of the season.
In the last four games, the Dolphins rank tied for sixth in yards per play allowed and fifth in third-down conversation rate. The pass rush has improved and the presence of cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, who played together for the first time in Week 9, only give rushers more time. Miami’s potent offense only increases the margin of error for its defense, but if that unit becomes as stingy as many expected entering the season, the Dolphins could be a dangerous team.
Will De’Von Achane have the same impact in his return?
No Dolphins rookie has turned heads like Achane, the team’s third-round pick. By the end of Week 5, Achane ranked second in rushing yards and led the league in yards per carry, all in essentially three games played. A knee injury has forced him to miss the last four games but he seems on track to return for the Raiders game or very soon after that. Miami’s rushing offense still ranks second in yards per game but is lacking a bit of juice without Achane, who has the second- and third-fastest tracked ball carrier times this season, only behind wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Achane’s emergence was one of the top developments for an offense that set a bevy of records in the first half of the season.
Does the AFC remain a juggernaut?
No matter what happens in Week 10, the Dolphins will come out of their bye week atop the AFC East. But the team’s sights should also be on home-field advantage. Those prospects took a blow when Miami lost to Kansas City in Frankfurt, Germany, but there are still a lot of games until the playoffs start.
Each of the AFC’s division leaders has at least six wins, so there is not much room for a losing streak in the second half of the schedule. And though the Bills haven’t resembled their usual selves this season, they are still just one game behind the Dolphins with a head-to-head win.
Even if the No. 1 seed, which comes with a first-round bye, is unattainable, the Dolphins could host at least two postseason games with the second seed. With one of the lowest remaining strengths of schedules, Miami should be favored in the majority of its games. Meanwhile, the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs all have some of the toughest remaining slates. Miami has to take care of its business first, but it wouldn’t hurt to have some help along the way, too.
This story was originally published November 12, 2023 at 8:18 AM.
