Exploring gulf in Dolphins’ offense against playoff winners vs. others. Analysts weigh in
The Dolphins have had 30 possessions in their three games against teams that won playoff games this past January.
Twenty three of those possessions have ended without points.
And that — as much as anything — explains why the Dolphins are 0-3 in those games, which also happen to be their only games against teams that currently have winning records.
Of those 30 possessions, 13 have ended in punts, including seven in Sunday’s 21-14 loss to Kansas City. By contrast, punter Jake Bailey has punted only 14 times total in Miami’s six wins.
In those losses to the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs, Miami committed four turnovers and six times saw possessions end on downs.
The Dolphins have six touchdowns and one field goal on those 30 possessions. (Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a Jerome Baker interception return against Philadelphia.)
The difference in offensive production between those games and Miami’s six wins is stark.
The Dolphins are averaging 14.6 offensive points in those losses, compared with 39 in the six wins.
Against teams with .500 or losing records, Tua Tagovailoa has been the league’s best quarterback, with a 114.8 passer rating, 16 touchdown passes and five interceptions and 320 yards passing per game.
Against the three teams that won playoff games in January, Tagovailoa has an 89.1 passer rating, three touchdowns, two interceptions and has averaged 230 yards passing per game, including a season-low 193 passing yards against the Chiefs.
As perspective, the 89.1 passer rating would rank 20th in the league if compared with all qualifying quarterbacks’ overall passer ratings this season. Tagovailoa still leads the league in overall passer rating at 106.4, narrowly ahead of Brock Purdy’s 105.4.
Not surprisingly, there’s a wide gulf between Tyreek Hill’s production in wins compared with losses. He‘s averaging 145 yards in receptions per game in the six wins, compared with 69 in the three losses.
Conversely, the Dolphins’ running game has produced nearly the same yards per carry in losses (5.8) as wins (5.9).
On Monday, national analysts offered theories about why the Dolphins offense struggles against good teams that have had recent playoff success.
ESPN’s Ryan Clark said it’s the byproduct of Miami’s presnap motions not working as effectively against highly skilled defenses. In total defense, the three teams that beat the Dolphins rank fourth (Chiefs), 12th (Eagles) and 17th (Bills).
“If you look at that motion, the three teams that have beaten them don’t react to it,” Clark said. “They all play Cover 2. They are just expanding in the zones, not reacting to it. When you get behind, you have to have a quarterback that is not only willing to extend plays but can.
“When things can’t be on time, when you can’t take the first read, when you can no longer take what the defense gives you because you have to go take something from the defense, Tua Tagovailoa cannot do that right now.”
ESPN’s Marcus Spears said the losses have reflected one shortcoming with Tagovailoa.
“I’ve always talked about Tua after his first read,” Spears said. “And what I’m getting at is, we know that in the league today to be explosive consistently, your quarterback has got to be able to move. Tua is phenomenal from the pocket. He has nothing outside of that right now.”
ESPN’s Rex Ryan said Miami’s offensive problems against good teams is as much an issue of venue as the competition, though that overlooks the fact that Tagovailoa threw six touchdowns in Baltimore last season and the fact Sunday’s game was played on a neutral field in Germany.
“On the road, their motion doesn’t time out,” Ryan said. “They average 43 1/2 points at home. On the road, 23 points a game. All that fancy motion, where they’re trying to time it with Tyreek Hill going full speed, you can’t do that on the road because of the crowd noise.”
During Mike McDaniel’s tenure, the Dolphins are 4-9 against 2022-23 playoff teams, including 2-8 on the road.
Overall under McDaniel, they’re 10-2 at home and 5-10 on the road, including the playoff loss in Buffalo.
“They better play at home” in postseason, Ryan said Monday. “It’s not just the home field that I say is the biggest in the league advantage” because of the heat and the visitors’ sideline being in the sun. It’s also “their motion,” Ryan said.
Sunday’s loss to the Chief greatly diminishes the chances of the Dolphins claiming the No. 1 seed, which would mean a first-round bye and needing only two playoff wins at home to advance to the Super Bowl. Only the top seed in each conference gets a bye.
The Dolphins will host a home playoff game if they win the AFC East, and that’s very much a possibility considering the Bills dropped to 5-4 with Sunday night’s loss in Cincinnati. The Jets were 4-3 entering Monday night’s game against the Chargers.
Buffalo’s remaining schedule appears to be more difficult than Miami’s, at least on paper.
If the Dolphins (6-3) can win four games they will be favored to win (Las Vegas, the Jets and Tennessee at home and Washington on the road) and win either at the Jets or home to Dallas, that would leave them at 11-4 entering a Dec. 31 game at Baltimore and the Jan. 7 finale against visiting Buffalo. Lose to the Ravens and beat the Bills, and Miami would finish 12-5 in this scenario.
Keep in mind that the Bills have difficult remaining games at Philadelphia, at Kansas City, home to Dallas, at the Chargers and at Miami. If the Bills lose three of those games and win every other game, there’s still a good chance Buffalo wouldn’t beat out the Dolphins in the AFC East.
The Jets’ toughest remaining games: at Buffalo, two against Miami and at Cleveland.
Division tiebreakers, in order, are head-to-head competition, division record and then record in common games.
If the Chiefs go on to claim the top seed, the Dolphins would need to win the division and finish with a better record (or tiebreaker) over the AFC North and AFC South winners to host as many as two playoff games.
This story was originally published November 6, 2023 at 11:23 AM.
