Extra points: 10 more thoughts on Dolphins’ incredible turnaround. Now comes the hard part
The Miami Dolphins are the first team in NFL history to have a seven-game losing streak and seven-game winning streak in the same season, and now they’re two wins — or maybe fewer — away from one of the most improbable runs to the postseason in the history of the league.
The Dolphins breezed to a 20-3 win against the New Orleans Saints on Monday to keep control of their own destiny entering the final two weeks of the season. Miami did what it was supposed to do against an opponent with close to half its roster sidelined by COVID-19 and now it’s sitting in seventh place in the American Football Conference.
Here are 10 more thoughts from the Dolphins’ seventh straight win:
1. Miami wins ugly, but still control its own destiny. Is it really worth complaining about how the Dolphins (8-7) win at this point? On Halloween, they were 1-7 and now they control their own destiny after their seventh straight win.
The schedule got soft, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa got better and Miami has finally caught some breaks in the last few weeks — the type that went against them in the first two months of the season, when Tagovailoa sustained a pair of injuries and the Dolphins lost seven in a row.
Miami has done what it was supposed to do and then some. It upset the Baltimore Ravens on “Thursday Night Football” to jump-start the streak last month, got five wins against the New York Jets, New York Giants and Houston Texans — all among the worst teams in the league — and now took down a massively shorthanded Saints team to move above .500 for the first time since Week 1.
New Orleans (7-8) had 21 players out with COVID, was down to its fourth-string quarterback because of a season-ending injury for Saints quarterback Jameis Winston and both of his backups testing positive for the coronavirus, and became a three-point underdog to Miami in New Orleans. Not much about the Dolphins’ win was particularly inspiring — their offense totaled just 259 yards and their defense terrorized Saints quarterback Ian Book like it was supposed to — but it keeps them in control of their own destiny with two games left.
If it beats the Tennessee Titans on Sunday in Nashville and the New England Patriots in its regular-season finale at home, Miami will make the 2022 NFL playoffs. The Dolphins’ playoff chances are up to 32 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, and will be better than 50 percent if they win next week.
2. The defense really was good, though. Book or not, Miami’s defense looked about the same as it has throughout this winning streak, which is to say relentless with pressure, opportunistic with takeaways and altogether fantastic.
The Dolphins sacked Book eight times, racked up six more tackles for loss and never trailed because of an interception returned for a touchdown on New Orleans’ third offensive play. Miami held the Saints to 164 total yards — its fourth straight game holding an opponent to fewer than 300 — and didn’t allow positive yardage on third down until the third quarter. New Orleans finished 0 of 12 on third downs.
The Dolphins kept up their blitz-happy approach and sent extra pass rushers on 39.3 percent of Book’s dropbacks, forcing the rookie to go 12 of 20 for 135 yards and two interceptions in his debut.
Again, this was a fourth-round pick making his NFL debut after spending most of his rookie season as a third-stringer, but this is basically what Miami has done to everyone during this winning streak. The Dolphins blitz on about 38 percent of all dropbacks and they haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer since October, and this was the best the formula has looked all season. It’ll be how they’ll try to make the postseason in the next two weeks.
Of course, Ryan Tannehill and Mac Jones will be the two best Miami has faced since its mid-November upset of the Ravens — the second game of the winning streak.
3. Nik Needham’s undrafted success story kicks off the party. Needham has done a bit of everything in the secondary since joining Miami as an undrafted free agent in 2019. He has been a fixture in the slot since Day 1, starting 11 games as a rookie in 2019, and solid as outside corner when needed. He even made his first career start as a free safety Dec. 19.
On Monday, he kicked off the Dolphins’ win with the signature play of his career, intercepting Saints quarterback Ian Book and running it back for a touchdown on New Orleans’ third play from scrimmage. It was a play reminiscent of the last time Book faced a team from Miami — with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, he threw a pick-six against the Miami Hurricanes in 2017 — and it further solidified Needham’s status as one of the Dolphins’ best undrafted pick-ups of all time. The 25-year-old defensive back now has six interceptions and started 23 games in less than three seasons.
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4. The sacks keep coming. An eight-sack game, no matter who it’s against, is rare. The Dolphins hadn’t had one since 2012 and this one felt like the culmination of a building identity. They’ve had at least four sacks in five of their last seven games and at least two in every game of the winning streak. On Monday, they got pressure up front — defensive linemen Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler, Raekwon Davis and Emmanuel Ogbah all got in on sacks — and, more importantly, their blitzes got home.
Safety Brandon Jones leads all defensive backs with five sacks, fellow safety Jevon Holland now has 2 1/2 as a rookie and even star cornerback Xavien Howard got credit for one when he chased Book out of bounds.
The Dolphins have a clear identity and they’ve spent the last two months refining it. Now two of the best teams in the league will put it to the test.
5. Tagovailoa will have to be better. The quarterback had some moments — we’ll get to those — but he mostly needed his defense to bail him out at the Caesars Superdome.
Miami’s offense only scored 13 points — and only three until 5:15 remained in the third quarter — despite going against a virus-ravaged opponent.
Tagovailoa went 19 of 26 for 198 yards, one touchdown on a shovel pass and one awful interception. While his offensive line didn’t do much to help him, he was mostly unspectacular, averaging 7 intended air yards per attempt — right about his season average, which ranks among the worst in the league — and was at 6.4 yards per attempt when he threw his interception on the first drive of the second quarter.
6. Like usual, he at least bounced back. It’s becoming a signature for Tagovailoa: He throws a terrible interception, then responds by leading a touchdown drive.
On Dec. 19, Tagovailoa bounced back from a fourth-quarter pick to leading a game-sealing touchdown drive to beat the Jets at Hard Rock Stadium. On Monday, he put together by far his best drive of the game after throwing his only interception and effectively put away another win.
After his third-quarter interception, Tagovailoa faced a third-and-9 and threw his best pass of the game, a 40-yard bomb to wide receiver Mack Hollins to move the Dolphins across midfield. On the next play, Miami ran a flea flicker and Tagovailoa completed another 24-yard pass to wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to move to the 21-yard line. Tagovailoa eventually capped the drive with a 1-yard shovel pass to Waddle.
The Dolphins were only up 10-3 at the start of the possession and Tagovailoa’s 3-of-4, 65-yard drive gave Miami the cushion it needed to erase any doubt. His knack for stringing together big drives when his team needs him most is perhaps his greatest strength.
7. Waddle keeps chasing history. Waddle’s one-week COVID absence didn’t slow down the rookie at all. On his first drive back, he had two catches and a first down. By halftime, he was up to seven catches and had set the Dolphins’ single-season rookie record for receiving yards.
It wasn’t the last record he set, either: Waddle finished with 10 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown, tying Jerry Rice’s rookie record for receptions by a rookie on “Monday Night Football.” He’s up to 96 catches for 941 yards, putting him on pace to set the single-season record for receptions by a rookie. Anquan Boldin set the record with 101 with the Arizona Cardinals in 2003.
8. Miami’s running back rotation is transformed. On the day before Thanksgiving, neither Phillip Lindsay nor Duke Johnson played for the Dolphins. On Monday, the running backs were tied for the team lead with 13 carries and no one else had more than three.
It’s as much an indictment on running back Myles Gaskin and general manager Chris Grier’s futile efforts to find reliable tailbacks as it is on the two veterans, but Lindsay and Johnson have changed the complexion of this team. So far, it has been for the better.
9. The offensive line got exposed again. Tagovailoa got sacked three times for the first time all year. Offensive linemen Liam Eichenberg and Austin Jackson, manning the left side of the line, got repeatedly abused by stunts and Tagovailoa had an average time to throw of just 2.51 seconds with seven pressures despite getting blitzed just 17.9 percent of the time.
10. Now comes the hard part. The Titans and Patriots are different beasts than basically any team Miami has faced during this winning streak.
Tannehill and Jones are both good enough to handle the Dolphins’ pressure. New England has a top-five defense and Tennessee’s is better than all but two teams Miami has faced during this winning streak.
The Dolphins control their own destiny, but they might be an underdog in these last two games. Miami has established exactly how it’s going to play. Now it’s time to find out if it’s enough to make the Dolphins a playoff team.
