6 stats that shed light on the Dolphins’ six-game winning streak
Success in football is difficult to sustain from week to week, let alone from season to season. However, when the Dolphins lost seven consecutive games and started the 2021 season with a 1-7 record, fair questions were posed — and mainly unanswered — about how a team that seemingly appeared to be one of the AFC’s ascending squads could look like one of the league’s basement dwellers at the midseason point.
Conversely, six consecutive wins have brought forth questions about how the Dolphins have been able to turn around their season to this extent.
“I’m not sure. Guys are just playing better essentially,” cornerback Byron Jones said Thursday. “Guys are just executing their responsibilities a little bit better and when you’re doing that more consistently, you see the results that we’ve been seeing. That’s the whole thing. We all have a job to do — line up, get the communication out and do your job at the highest level. The call is going to be just fine. We’re going to be in a position to make plays and we’ve just got to make them. We’re starting to do that a lot more consistently this time around. Obviously we still want to keep that thing rolling but we’re off to a good start.”
Some changes have been clear to identify, such as the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who missed three games on injured reserve with broken ribs during their losing streak. Others leave a bit more difficult to sort through, like the resurgence of a defense that doesn’t seem to have undergone a major overhaul in its scheme.
Players have been hard-pressed to pinpoint exactly what has engineered six consecutive wins but some numbers, which the team will look to maintain against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, may shed a light on the turnaround.
+2
The Dolphins’ turnover margin during the winning streak has been +2, which ranks tied for 13th during that span. In the team’s first eight games, the margin was -4, which ranked tied for 23rd. This goes hand in hand with an offense that has taken care of the ball and reduced mistakes with Tagovailoa under center and a defense that is back to its 2020 ways when it led the league in takeaways. Through Week 8, the Dolphins defense had forced nine turnovers; during the streak, it has 12 takeaways.
66.7
The Dolphins offense is converting 66.7 percent of its trips to the red zone into touchdowns. For an offense that has at times been unable to manufacture explosive plays, their success in the red zone has been key. The offense still only averages 20.4 points per game and 24.5 during the winning streak but they’ve taken advantage of opportunities when they’re deep in scoring range.
31.3
The Dolphins defense is allowing opposing offenses to convert 31.3 percent of their trips to the red zone into touchdowns. Through the first eight games, offenses were converting on 60.6 percent of those opportunities, which ranked 16th. Again, with an offense that can go stretches without putting puts on the board, limiting offenses to field goals instead of touchdowns have widened the offense’s margin for error on a given game day.
32.6
The Dolphins defense is allowing opposing offenses to convert 32.6 percent of third-down opportunities. The unit led the league in this stat last season (31.2 percent) but opponents were converting third-down opportunities 50.9 percent of the time through the first eight games, which ranked 31st. Multiple players have said success on third downs has started on early downs, where the defense has also improved against the run. Early-down success has allowed the defense to have more creativity with their blitz packages on late downs.
35.1
The Dolphins’ opponents during their winning streak currently have a combined win percentage of 35.1. Before the season, the Dolphins’ second-half schedule appeared to be one that could be advantageous, especially with a stretch that included five of six games being played at home. The team played five of its first eight games away from Hard Rock Stadium and its opponents’ combined winning percentage is 51.8 up to this point. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have a longer active winning streak, though, so give the Dolphins credit for winning many of the games they have been expected to, especially late in the season.
89.9
Since Week 11, the Dolphins’ offensive line has ranked second in NFL Next Gen Stat’s pass-blocking efficiency metric, with a score of 89.9. Through the first ten weeks of the season, the unit ranked last with a score of 78.5. The Dolphins’ offensive still also ranks last in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric, defined as how often a lineman can hold a block for at least 2.5 seconds, and Tagovailoa’s ability to get the ball out of his hand quickly takes a lot of pressure off the unit. But improvements in recent weeks have begun to open things up a bit more for an offense that has been defined by its short passing.
This story was originally published December 23, 2021 at 5:18 PM.
