Extra points: 10 more thoughts on Tua, touchdown dances and Dolphins’ sixth straight win
The Miami Dolphins, shorthanded because of a miniature COVID-19 outbreak Sunday and playing with virtually no margin for error, survived against the New York Jets to keep their postseason hopes alive.
The Dolphins overcame a 10-point second-quarter deficit — and a late pick-six by Tua Tagovailoa to let the Jets tie the game — to beat New York, 31-24, in Miami Gardens and get back to .500.
After they started the season with seven losses in their first eight games, the Dolphins are improbably firmly back in the hunt, even if their win against the lowly Jets didn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Here are 10 more thoughts from another Miami’s sixth straight win at Hard Rock Stadium:
1. The Dolphins are back at .500 and in the contention. Before we get to anything else, Miami (7-7) did the only thing that really mattered from Sunday: It won.
The Dolphins were terrible in the first quarter, got going behind their rushing attack in the middle of the game, then managed to survive after a near disaster in the fourth quarter gave the Jets (3-11) a game-tying defensive touchdown.
In the end, surviving was all that mattered. Miami went into the day with an 11-percent chance to make the 2022 NFL playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight, and a loss would’ve dropped their chances to worse than 1 percent.
The win didn’t really increase the Dolphins’ chances — they were still at 11 percent after the victory — but it gives them a fighting chance going into the final three games, all of which should be winnable.
2. The tests are about to get tougher, though. Miami has mostly been piling up wins against the dregs of the NFL — five of the six wins have come against the lowly Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and two against the Jets — and two of its last three games are against likely playoff teams.
At various moments throughout this winning streak, the Dolphins have played well enough to beat anybody. In the last two games, they have not.
In its win against the New York Giants on Dec. 5, Miami managed just 297 total yards — its first time failing to hit 300 since Tagovailoa returned from a finger injury against the Baltimore Ravens last month. In their win Sunday, the Dolphins gave up more than 20 points for the first time since Halloween — their last loss — and lost the turnover battle.
Fortunately for Miami, it was playing the Jets and won anyway.
The chances to make the playoffs are still slim. To pull off an unlikely turnaround, the Dolphins will have to play even better than they have during this winning streak.
3. It starts with Tagovailoa. After posting a quarterback rating better than 100 in four straight games, Tagovailoa crashed back to earth Sunday, going 16 of 27 for 196 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. It was, in terms of passer rating, his second worst start of the season — not counting his injury-shortened Week 2 game — and he had his fewest passing yards of any game he both started and finished.
The interceptions, however, were the biggest point of concern. Tagovailoa has built an effective identity as a devastatingly accurate game manager, picking up first downs in the short-passing game to perfectly complement his defense and make up for a mostly ineffective rushing attack. His two interceptions Sunday nearly cost Miami.
In the fourth quarter, he made his most costly mistake. Miami was finally up 24-17 with the ball and less than eight minutes remaining, and Tagovailoa threw a soft pass to tight end Hunter Long on an out route. Jets cornerback Brandin Echols easily jumped the route and ran an interception back for a game-tying touchdown.
Tagovailoa did answer and throw a game-winning touchdown to wide receiver DeVante Parker with 3:43 remaining, but the interception was the sort of costly mistake Tagovailoa can’t afford to make — and too frequently did early in the year — given his arm-strength limitations and the type of play that justifies all the questions about his long-term ceiling.
3. A lifeless start nearly derailed the Dolphins. Maybe it was because they were coming off a bye week or maybe because they were missing multiple starters due to COVID-19. Whatever the reason, it doesn’t really matter — Miami was horrible in the first quarter, against one of the worst teams in the league, and it nearly killed the Dolphins.
Miami fell behind 10-0 in just 10:30 with Tagovailoa starting 0 of 3 with an interception and the Jets were outgaining the Dolphins, 100-36, at the end of the first quarter. Miami didn’t tie the game up until the third quarter and didn’t take the lead until the fourth.
“We definitely needed to play better,” Flores said. “I think the guys kind of turned it on in the second half.”
With road games and tougher opponents looming, the Dolphins may not be able to afford a start like this one again.
5. Tagovailoa, to be fair, badly missed Jaylen Waddle. The rookie was on pace to break the NFL’s single-season receptions record by the end of Week 17.
That should explain it all. He’s by far Tagovailoa’s favorite target and Tagovailoa looked much less comfortable without his security blanket.
Tagovailoa, who averages the third fewest air yards per attempt of all qualifying starters, averaged 9.6 yards in the air per attempt Sunday without his steady diet of quick slants and curls to Waddle available. Miami could not quite figure out a way to replicate its star wide receiver.
6. DeVante Parker did his best, though. With Waddle out because of the coronavirus, Parker became Tagovailoa’s favorite target, and finished with four catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. He’s a different player than Waddle — as evidenced by the 37-yard leaping catch he made on a corner route to the sideline — but the Dolphins asked him to do some of what Waddle usually does.
The wide receiver’s second catch was a deep curl into the soft spot of the zone and his touchdown was a classic Waddle play, reeling in a slant from Tagovailoa and even adjusting when the quarterback left the pass a bit behind him.
“Jaylen doesn’t win us the games,” Tagovailoa said. “He obviously is a help with us to win games, but I think all the guys that were out there, they put in a lot of hard work.”
7. The defense missed Jevon Holland as badly as the offense missed Waddle. Holland is instrumental to Miami’s defensive identity as a dynamic blitzer in a blitz-happy system.
With the safety sidelined by COVID, the Dolphins only blitzed Jets quarterback Zach Wilson on seven of his 23 dropbacks and they wound up giving up their most points since October.
8. Duke Johnson saves the day in his return to Hard Rock Stadium. In the end, all the issues didn’t matter much because of what running back Duke Johnson did in his first start for Miami.
Johnson, who starred for both Miami Gardens’ Miami Norland Senior High School and the Miami Hurricanes, posted career-highs with 22 carries, 107 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He got the starting nod because of virus issues in his position group and made a legitimate case to be the starter moving forward.
9. Big men are athletes, too. When Zach Sieler wound up in coverage and broke up a pass in the flat in the first quarter, it seemed unlikely there would be a more athletic play by a defensive tackle Sunday.
Christian Wilkins begged to differ. In the fourth quarter, the defensive lineman caught a go-ahead 1-yard touchdown pass and celebrated by jumping into the crowd, then doing the worm in the end zone.
They were fun highlights from the two defensive linemen, who are quietly putting together excellent seasons in the roles they typically play. Wilkins had seven tackles, one tackle for loss and one pass defended Sunday, while Sieler had three tackles, a sack, a pass defended and a forced fumble.
Wilkins is now tied for third on the team with 54 tackles
10. The Dolphins have a legitimate chance to climb above .500. The Dolphins project as a 1/2-point favorite against the New Orleans Saints next week, then only a two-point underdog to the Tennessee Titans and a one-point underdog to the New England Patriots in the finale.
The schedule has actually broken nicely, with the Saints’ quarterback situation a mess, Titans running back Derrick Henry still out and the Patriots game at home.
It’s still unlikely they make the playoffs, but it’s not inconceivable. Considering the way this year started, the Dolphins will take it.
