Goff-Stafford trade will impact Dolphins’ offseason — just not how you might expect
The immediate reaction many had to Saturday night’s historic trade between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions was as predictable as it was understandable.
If the Lions can get Jared Goff, two future first-round draft picks and a third-round pick for Matt Stafford, just imagine what the Texans can get for Deshaun Watson!
On the surface, this analysis makes sense. Watson, at age 25, has won more playoff games and been to more Pro Bowls than Stafford has 12 years into his career.
Elite quarterbacks just entering their prime are never, ever traded. Watson by any metric is a more valuable commodity than Stafford.
But that misses an important point. The Lions-Rams swap — the first ever involving two former No. 1 picks — was as much a salary dump as it was talent acquisition.
Immediately after their season ended with another playoff loss, the Rams telegraphed their openness to (and even preference of) moving on from Goff. He never lived up to the $134 million contract extension signed in 2019, and there have been reports in recent weeks about Sean McVay’s growing disillusionment for his quarterback.
The Rams ultimately decided they wanted someone new — but doing so meant they had to find a taker for Goff’s contract, which includes another $45 million guaranteed over the next two seasons.
The Lions were that taker — but with a condition.
Detroit has a new coach (ex-Dolphins interim Dan Campbell) and looks like it’s embarking on a franchise reset not unlike how Miami started over two years ago.
So the Lions decided it was in their best long-term interest to trade cap space for premium picks. While certainly valuable, Stafford would not have been worth two first-round picks and a mid-level starting quarterback if not for the money involved.
That’s why it isn’t necessarily accurate to say that the Stafford deal sets the market for a potential Watson deal.
They should be viewed as two totally different scenarios. Watson, if the Texans ever relent and agree to deal him, would fetch multiple first-round picks and probably a quality veteran (or two). But the Stafford-Goff swap should not determine how many multiple means.
That being said, the late-night transaction will likely impact the Dolphins in one significant way:
It would seemingly make it more difficult to trade down from third overall in April, if that’s the team’s hope.
Before Saturday, the Lions were a logical partner if they wanted to make a draft-day deal.
There are three top quarterbacks in the draft — Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson — and one of those three are guaranteed to be available when the Dolphins go on the clock (assuming they haven’t already dealt that pick to Houston for Watson).
The Lions, currently with pick No. 7, would presumably have been interested in one of those quarterbacks if they simply traded Stafford for picks.
But with Goff and his hefty salary now on their ledger, it doesn’t make sense for Detroit to draft a quarterback this year. Goff is being paid to play.
And the considering the nearly $50 million in salary cap obligations the Lions will carry this year at quarterback ($19 million in dead cap for Stafford and $28 million in new charges for Goff), Detroit would miss out on one of the biggest advantages of drafting a quarterback: The very low price.
Tua Tagovailoa will make $2 million this year and cost the Dolphins just $6.9 million in cap. That’s great value for a starting quarterback, and it allows Chris Grier and Brian Flores to build out the rest of their roster.
But it makes no sense for the Lions to begin a rebuild by immediately drafting a top-3 quarterback and then set him up to fail because they don’t have the money to build around him.
The Dolphins could still trade out from 3. The Falcons (at 4), Panthers (at 8) and Broncos (at 9) all need quarterbacks. But their most obvious partner is probably now off the table.
This story was originally published January 31, 2021 at 9:28 AM.
