How the underdog Dolphins can beat the unbeaten Seahawks in five (not-so-easy) steps
The Miami Dolphins are the NFL’s second-biggest home underdogs (plus-6.5, as of late week) of the weekend, and on paper, it’s easy to understand why.
The Seattle Seahawks are really good, particularly on offense and special teams.
Quarterback Russell Wilson is a deserving MVP candidate, and Seattle has beaten three talented teams in Atlanta, New England and Dallas.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 1-2 and have real issues on defense. And their only win has been against the similarly limited Jaguars.
So what’s their path to victory?
Here are five ways they could pull it off:
1. Throw, throw, and throw some more.
For all the Dolphins’ issues on defense, the Seahawks have been somehow worse.
Through three weeks, they’re last in yards allowed (497.3 per game), last in passing (430.7), 31st in yards per completion (8.5), 31st in yards per play (6.6) and 29th in third-down defense (51.2 percent).
Plus their best secondary players are banged up.
Cornerback Quinton Dunbar — who has one of the team’s four interceptions plus four passes defensed and has surrendered a passer rating of 75.9 when targeted — is dealing with a knee injury.
Safety Jamal Adams (the ex-Jet) didn’t practice this week due to a groin issue.
Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick comes in as the league’s fifth-ranked quarterback, according to ESPN’s QBR.
2. Let X be X.
The Dolphins have tried to take it slow with Xavien Howard in his return from major knee surgery.
They limited his snaps in Week 1. They assigned rookie Noah Igbinoghene to Stefon Diggs in Week 2 (with little success).
But regardless if Byron Jones plays Sunday (he’s dealing with a groin issue), the training wheels will probably need to come off for Howard.
DK Metcalf has accounted for 34.1 percent of the Seahawks’ passing offense this year. Time for Howard to play like the Pro Bowler he was in 2018 and lock Metcalf down for 65 snaps.
3. Be more ‘special’ than the Seahawks.
The Seahawks have the league’s second-ranked special teams, per Football Outsiders.
The Dolphins aren’t far behind, at fourth.
Jakeem Grant, who ranks 25th in kickoff return average (15.5) and 14th in punt return average (7.2), is due to break one. The Seahawks’ coverage stats are fine (14th against kickoff returns, 15th against punts), but not spectacular.
“They play fast, they play physical they are aggressive and they have a good nucleus of players,” said Dolphins special teams coordinator Danny Crossman. “... The punter [Michael Dickson] is having an outstanding year and has the ability to flip the field when they’ve been stalled or backed up, and put them in good field position going forward. They’ve only had to kick one field goal because of how they are playing offensively; but then Jason [Myers] has done a nice job with his kickoffs. They’ve got two quality return players. The biggest thing is they have a nice nucleus of veteran and young core players. When you put that all together, it gives you an opportunity for success.”
4. Run to set up play-action, not for yards.
Running back Myles Gaskin has been a revelation in Year 2, leading the Dolphins in carries (38), rushing yards (152), catches (15) and total yards (243).
But this probably won’t be his week, even with Seahawks first-round linebacker Jordyn Brooks out with an MCL sprain.
For as bad as the Seahawks are against the pass, they’re just as good against the run. They rank second in rush defense (66.7) and third in yards per carry (3.0).
Still, play-action passing has been the engine that’s driven the Dolphins’ offense this season, and so offensive coordinator Chan Gailey surely knows he can’t completely abandon the run.
5. Pray for heat.
The forecast for kickoff Sunday is 87 degrees with a heat index some 10 degrees higher.
Miserable for much of the country. Perfect for the Miami Dolphins, who are 8-2 against Pacific Time teams at home in the last decade.
The highs in Seattle his week? The low 70s.
If the forecast holds, this will be the warmest Seahawks game in three years. It hit 88 degrees when the Seahawks visited the Titans in 2017 — a game Tennessee won.
