Caution or courage? What the Dolphins’ QB decision will reveal about Ross’ franchise
For the Miami Dolphins, the draft debate is not who’s better — Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.
That argument is tired. Most agree that Tagovailoa is the better player, but Herbert is the safer health choice.
Instead, the real question heading into Thursday night — which might be the most important evening of the 2020’s for the Dolphins — is this: Can an organization with differing internal evaluations, opinions and motivations come together for a consensus pick?
Especially when the player picked will probably determine who still has jobs in four years.
Caution or courage?
We will find out Thursday.
Make no mistake: There must be differing opinions within team headquarters (or, to be more accurate in the coronavirus era, the Dolphins’ draft Zoom room) on the best path forward at the quarterback position.
It’s the only thing that explains so many conflicting reports regarding the Dolphins and their plans.
Dolphins draft rumors
For example:
We hear there’s strong sentiment to take Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5, and if not, Jordan Love with the Dolphins’ second first-rounder.
But Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported this week that he “can’t find anybody who thinks they’re taking Tua,” and that Herbert would be Miami’s pick, if the club takes a quarterback at No. 5.
(That’s quickly become the conventional wisdom, as Peter King, Mel Kiper Jr. and Daniel Jeremiah all have the Dolphins selecting Herbert in their final mock drafts.)
What’s more, we hear the Dolphins want to use all three of their first-rounders, making a move up from No. 5 to No. 3 hard, but not impossible logistically.
And that the “gut feeling” of one league source familiar with the key decision-makers is that the No. 5 pick will be used on a quarterback.
But a sports anchor out of NBC Sports Washington reported Tuesday that “Miami is looking to move up to No. 3. Speculation suggest it could be for offensive tackle, maybe Andrew Thomas out of Georgia.” NFL Network reported the same Wednesday.
There’s even conflicting reports on which quarterback Dan Marino loves the most (we have long heard he has an affinity for Love).
So who’s right?
We don’t dare speak for Stephen Ross, who owns the Dolphins, Brian Flores, who coaches the Dolphins, or Chris Grier, who manages the team’s roster.
Of the three, only Grier has made himself available to local reporters in the last two months.
But we do have an idea of their philosophies, biases and motivations.
Ross demands a winner
Ross turns 80 in two weeks and — after just one winning seasons as team owner — badly wants to build a team that, as he said in January, “can consistently compete for championships. Our fans deserve that, and we’ll keep working at it until we can deliver it for them.”
So what quarterback gives the Dolphins the best chance to win a Super Bowl? That answer seems clear.
“If a team decides to draft Justin Herbert, [that means] they are so scared Tua is going to be hurt ... they are willing to chase mediocrity instead of greatness,” former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky said on the Dan Patrick Show last week.
How about Flores?
He has tried to minimize the Tua talk for months, and was reportedly icy to the Alabama star during the Dolphins’ Combine interview. But Flores is notorious for playing mind games with players — particularly his quarterbacks — and was probably testing Tagovailoa to see how he would react.
For Flores, leadership and team buy-in are as important at the quarterback position as talent. And Tagovailoa’s intangibles are off the charts. Players at Alabama loved him. Nick Saban suggested recently that passing on Tua would be a Drew Brees-like mistake for the Dolphins.
Herbert, meanwhile, is admittedly a quiet guy by nature. Vocal leadership is a skill he’s had to learn.
Flores wants it in a quarterback.
What’s it?
“I think that’s something everyone talks about,” Flores said at the Combine in February. “Does he have that factor? Do guys rally around him? I think that’s something you see watching the film, but you get to know the player, the people around him, his coaches, his high school coaches or anybody who’s had an effect on [him].
“You want to get to know him and have those conversations. It’s a feel. You may feel like your guy has it. May not. As a group, myself, Chris, we spend a lot of time talking about a lot of different things. If we feel like a player has that, that’s something that I think every organization is looking for. It’s an important piece, but it’s different. Everyone’s got a different kind of thought process and opinion on that.”
Tagovailoa, 22-2 as a starter and a national champion as a freshman, has it. What evidence have we seen from Herbert that he does too?
Bill Parcells’ influence
As for Grier, we shouldn’t forget his football upbringing. His dad Bobby worked for Bill Parcells in New England. Chris Grier worked for Parcells in Miami.
Parcells loves big, strong players who don’t get hurt and have a bunch of college starts. “The best ability is availability,” was one of his credos.
And that description sounds a lot more like the 6-6, rarely-hurt Herbert than the 6-foot, thrice-surgically repaired Tagovailoa.
But Grier and Parcells differ in one important way: Temperament. He’s the alpha dog. Grier is a collaborator.
“I’m not going to force a coach to take a player, because that doesn’t work,” Grier said. “If the coach doesn’t want a player and I say, ‘No, we’re taking him,’ and then it works out one way or the other, good; but if it doesn’t, it creates that animosity and then the distrust and it’s not worth it, because you’ve been around here long enough and you’ve seen a lot of that happen. I’m not going to force any player on anyone. But yes, I had the final say.”
Put another way: If Ross and, more importantly, Flores aren’t sold on a quarterback, Grier isn’t taking him.
And every quarterback not named Joe Burrow has warts.
Which is why one scenario has gotten increasing traction in recent days: The Dolphins, without a clear conviction on either Tagovailoa or Herbert, take the best player available at 5 and then address quarterback next.
They probably cannot afford to sit back and wait until 18 in that hypothetical, so expect a trade up.
NFL Network reported Wednesday that the Cardinals are looking to move out of 8.
The draft chart says it should cost the Dolphins just the 39th pick to move up 10 spots. That would allow them to get both an elite offensive tackle and Tagovailoa, with less risk than taking him at No. 5.
We’re also hearing the Dolphins could double up on offensive linemen Thursday, taking one in the top 10 and another at 26. A name that we keep hearing is Ezra Cleveland out of Boise State.
Two starting tackles and a franchise quarterback? That would be a dream draft most any year for the Dolphins. Doing all three in one day would be a coup.
There’s no difference of opinion on that.
This story was originally published April 22, 2020 at 1:48 PM.
