Even if the Dolphins could trade up to top pick, should they? A revealing exercise
We have long believed that the odds of the Dolphins actually trading for the draft’s first overall pick are long.
Two major reasons:
1. The Bengals probably want Joe Burrow, the draft’s best quarterback.
2. Even if Cincinnati is open to a deal, would the cost to Miami be prohibitive?
Enough time has been spent on point No. 1.
Let’s focus on point No. 2.
We don’t know for certain what it would take to get the Bengals to move down, but NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah floated a scenario that has been discussed with Armando Salguero on our podcast:
A three-way trade, in which the Dolphins get the first pick, the Bengals the third and the Lions the fifth. Obviously, both Cincinnati and Detroit would want additional compensation from Miami.
Here are the terms of his fantasy trade:
The Dolphins get pick No. 1.
The Bengals get picks No. 3, 18 and a 2021 first-round pick from the Dolphins.
The Lions get picks No. 5, 39, 141 (a late fourth-rounder) and 2021 second-round pick from the Dolphins.
That leaves Chris Grier picks No. 1, 26, 56 and 70 in the first two days of the 2020 draft.
And it gives him Joe Burrow. And, if they’re lucky, a tackle such as Georgia’s Andrew Thomas at pick 26 and a running back such as Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins at 56 (they might have to trade up 10 or so spots for Dobbins).
But what if they’re not lucky?
A trade up to 1 would of course give them the rights to any player they want. But it would also severely limit their ability to fill their many remaining needs.
Don’t take our word for it. Run the simulation yourself, as we did on Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator.
We negotiated a straight-up Dolphins-Bengals trade for the No. 1 pick. To make it work, it cost Grier picks No. 5, 18 and 56 this year plus a first- and second-round pick in 2021.
That’s not far off from the total compensation required in Jeremiah’s proposed three-way swap. And it’s actually a pretty fair deal, according to the simulator, which found the Dolphins would win that trade 68 percent of the time.
On this imaginary draft night, Grier wastes no time Zooming in the name Joe Burrow to New York. But then the reality of the situation sinks in.
The Dolphins still need a tackle. And unless they are willing to trade up again, this time from 26 to the teens, they’re probably going to miss out on the best.
In this simulation, the Dolphins are left to pick from the best remaining wide receivers, corners and edge defenders — of which there are plenty — because the top tackles are gone. So with the 26th pick, the Dolphins take Clemson corner A.J. Terrell (who, on the plus side, rounds out the best secondary in the NFL).
The Dolphins, in this alternate reality, end up with two really good players, but do nothing to address their biggest need (offensive tackle).
That’s why a more likely scenario in the real world is the Dolphins staying put at 5, and building a complete team around either Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa.
In one of the simulations we ran, the Dolphins landed Herbert at 5, Thomas at 18 and Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton at 26 — landing their franchise quarterback and his two bookend linemen.
Some news: It’s seeming less and less likely that the Dolphins will move up to draft Tagovailoa, based on what we’re hearing and contextual clues (questions about Tagovailoa’s health, a growing link to Herbert, etc.).
But for the sake of argument, here’s what it would likely take to get to 3 and take Tagovailoa: picks No. 5, 26 and 39.
That would leave the Dolphins picks No. 3 and 18. Which means the Dolphins would land Tagovailoa and a tackle such as Houston’s Josh Jones — who would help the Dolphins more in 2020 than the late first-round corner and edge defender they would take after trading up for Burrow.
One more hypothetical:
What if the Dolphins miss out on Herbert and have deep reservations about Tagovailoa (or vice versa)? Or what if they actually like Jordan Love more than either of them?
There’s a way to get a top-three talent and their franchise quarterback and it only costs them an additional second-round pick.
Take Isaiah Simmons, the do-everything defender out of Clemson, at 5.
Trade up to pick No. 10 (sending the Browns the 18th and 39th overall picks) and take Love, the dynamic but inconsistent Utah State quarterback.
And do what’s necessary to land Becton or Thomas with their third first-round pick. A move up from 26 to 20 would probably take just Miami’s third-round pick.
The Dolphins, in this scenario, would still have a late-second rounder, and could use that pick on a running back such as Florida State’s Cam Akers.
Simmons, Love, Becton and Akers. Or Burrow, Thomas and Dobbins.
What package is more appealing? What combination gives you a better chance of winning a Super Bowl?
Those are the kinds of conversations that have surely taken place within the organization for weeks.
This story was originally published April 9, 2020 at 11:24 AM.
