The Joe Burrow dream’s alive for Dolphins, but path likely involves a Miami win in Week 15
For those still holding out faint hope that the Dolphins can put themselves in position to select the top quarterback in April’s draft,the most conventional — albeit unlikely — scenario would involve Miami losing its remaining three games and getting a lot of help from the Bengals, Giants and Redskins.
How unlikely? Football Outsiders put the odds of the Dolphins picking first at just 8.5 percent. (Miami does have a 74.4 percent chance of landing a top-five pick, the website adds.)
Yet if the Dolphins decide they desperately want LSU quarterback Joe Burrow — who’s emerging as that top QB prospect — there is one scenario that would actually involve the Dolphins winning Sunday.
If the 3-10 Dolphins, who currently stand fourth in draft order behind the Bengals, Giants and Redskins, are unable to supplant 1-12 Cincinnati for the top pick, then it’s probably in Miami’s best interests for the Giants to pick first.
That’s because the Giants, this past April, already selected their quarterback of the future in Daniel Jones, who’s now injured but showed more promise this season than the Redskins’ first-round quarterback, Dwayne Haskins.
So if the Giants land the top pick, New York might consider an aggressive hypothetical trade-up offer from the Dolphins involving Miami’s first-round pick, the Pittsburgh or Houston first-round picks that are both due Miami and a third carrot — perhaps one of Miami’s two first-round picks next year.
Remember, after the Dolphins sent Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers for Pittsburgh’s first-round pick, Dolphins general manager Chris Grier told reporters that “we’ve positioned ourselves where we can do anything and get whatever player we feel can help us as soon as possible.”
Indeed, the Dolphins, assuming they love Burrow, would be better positioned to satisfy the Giants in a trade than any team because of their substantial draft assets, unless New York was intent on picking Ohio State defensive end Chase Young.
But Grier’s comments were only half true. Yes, the Dolphins have the assets to pull off any trade they want, but they need a willing partner. It’s unclear if the Bengals, who need a quarterback, would be willing.
For the Giants to get the top pick, New York would need to lose out (home to Miami, at Washington, home to Philadelphia) to finish 2-14, and the Bengals would need one more win.
Cincinnati has home games against the Patriots and Browns, and a game at Miami in between.
The Giants would win a tiebreaker with the Bengals and Dolphins — and pick ahead of either team if they have the same record — because the Giants’ opponents have a worse cumulative opponent than the Dolphins’ or Bengals’ opponents.
Miami would win a draft tiebreaker with the Bengals, but a tie with Washington remains too close to call, with the Redskins holding a narrow lead at the moment.
Even though a Miami win Sunday would increase the chances of the Giants picking first, a fourth Dolphins win — with the potential of a fifth win against Cincinnati — would leave the Dolphins at risk of picking somewhere between 5 and 10 in the first round.
Miami would win a tiebreaker against 4-9 Atlanta but might lose one against 4-9 Jacksonville (that’s too close to call). The Dolphins likely would win tiebreakers against the Chargers, Denver and Carolina, who are all 5-8 but would lose a tiebreaker to the Jets, who are also 5-8. Ties would be unlikely against Detroit and Arizona, who sit fifth and sixth in current draft order at 3-9-1.
All of this is a long way of saying the Dolphins have gotten very little luck in their quest for a top pick. Part of it is their own doing. If coach Brian Flores have stuck with Josh Rosen at quarterback instead of switching back to Ryan Fitzpatrick two months ago, the Dolphins could very well be winless right now.
Instead, Flores prioritized winning in the present, even if it hurt the Dolphins’ future.
But the rest of the Dolphins’ plight is due to events beyond their control. The NFC East is historically bad — with a chance of being statistically the worst division ever — and the Redskins and Giants will benefit in April from that horrendous strength of schedule.
Miami’s next two opponents, New York and Cincinnati, have a combined winning percentage of .115, which is nearly impossible at this stage of the season.
Plus, there are already eight teams guaranteed a losing record. Amazingly, the Dolphins’ first-round draft pick could be anywhere from first to 16th.
So in a perverse way, Al Riveron did the Dolphins a favor by interceding late in Sunday’s game.
If pass interference was never called on Nik Needham, the Dolphins almost certainly win that game, drop to seventh in the updated draft order and faced a real risk of falling out of the top 10 altogether when the season ends.
This story was originally published December 10, 2019 at 12:22 PM.
