Dolphins’ best-, worst-case draft scenarios and where they will almost certainly pick
Time runs short and odds grow long for Team Tank.
Week 11, on paper, was a good one for Dolphins fans still dreaming of maximum draft capital.
The Dolphins, Steelers and Texans all lost. The Dolphins own all three teams’ first-round draft picks. Plus the Jets won, putting the Dolphins (2-8) a game clear of their division rivals in the reverse standings.
And yet, when dawn broke Monday, there was little change in Miami’s expected draft order.
The Dolphins departed Week 11 the same way they entered it, with the fourth overall pick.
And while the Steelers’ pick (now 16th) improved a few spots, the Texans would still have a first-round bye (and at best the 25th pick) if the season ended today.
Now, maybe the offensively challenged Steelers collapse and their pick ends up in the top 10. Maybe the Colts beat the Texans Thursday and go on to win the AFC South.
But those all would be empty consolation prizes, if the unthinkable happens:
The Dolphins finish out of the top five altogether.
Sound far-fetched?
In truth, there’s a clearer path for that happening than the Dolphins ending up with the No. 1 overall pick, and their choice of quarterbacks.
How so?
The Dolphins’ remaining schedule strength (.383) is by far the weakest of the teams currently projected in the top four.
The Bengals (who are currently winless and on track for the No. 1 pick) have a tougher remaining schedule (.450), as do the Redskins (1-9, No. 2 pick, .492) and the Giants (2-8, No. 3 pick, .417).
What’s more, there are several ways the Dolphins would finish out of the top five. But the most plausible is if they beat the Jets and either the Giants or Bengals, the Giants and Redskins win no more than two of their remaining games, the Jets finish 1-5 and either the Buccaneers, Broncos or Falcons lose out.
All of those things could absolutely happen.
And it’s far more likely than the Rube Goldberg scenario it would take for the Dolphins to land the No. 1 pick, and their choice of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert or (less likely now) Tua Tagovailoa.
Of all the ways for the Dolphins to finish with the league’s worst record, here’s the most plausible:
They lose out, including to the Giants and Bengals, who also beat the Jets. The Redskins beat the Giants. And they hope their season-long strength of schedule (which is the NFL’s draft tiebreaker) remains worse than that of the Bengals. Right now, Miami has the clear edge over Cincinnati, .494 to .568.
But does anyone have any confidence that the Bengals can beat anyone this year, let alone two teams? And the Dolphins cannot afford to end up with the same record as the Giants, whose projected strength of schedule (.463) is currently the lowest among any team presently projected to pick in the top 10.
This is all a long way of saying that, barring a crazy series of events, the Dolphins almost certainly will own either the third, fourth or fifth picks next April.
Will they actually use that pick? Or trade up or back?
It depends on the priorities of the teams that finish ahead of them. With Tagovailoa out indefinitely with a dislocated and broken hip, most believe that eliminates the Alabama quarterback from consideration for the top pick.
Will the Bengals consider trading back? The odds seemed slim before Tagovailoa’s injury, and almost zero now, unless for some bizarre reason they aren’t impressed with either Burrow or Herbert.
But there’s no guarantee the Dolphins will get whichever of the top two quarterbacks is left. The Redskins are going to have a new coach, and if he likes Herbert more than Dwayne Haskins — who has shown nothing as a rookie — there’s nothing stopping Washington from taking a quarterback in the first round for the second straight year.
That’s one of many reasons the Dolphins need to root for the Redskins to beat the Giants on Dec. 22 — the same day Miami hosts Cincinnati.
If the quarterbacks go 1-2, and the Dolphins pick third, they would still get a very good player. Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is probably the best overall prospect in the draft, and would immediately improve the Dolphins’ defense.
But if they finish behind the Bengals, Redskins and Giants, things get really murky. Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas would make a lot of sense — but then why go through the trouble of trading Laremy Tunsil? Or they could take the best available defensive back or wide receiver. There is plenty of quality at both positions.
Or maybe the throw the ultimate Hail Mary and take Tagovailoa — despite all the medical red flags. He underwent “successful” surgery Monday, and while school doctors insist Tagovailoa will make a full recovery and “his prognosis is excellent,” there’s no guarantee he will ever be the same player.
This story was originally published November 18, 2019 at 12:41 PM.
