Hardly anyone outside of Dolphins headquarters is bullish on Miami's 2018 chances
The Dolphins are going to shock the world this fall or undergo some seismic changes the following winter.
Because if the betting public and prognosticators are right, Miami just might have its worst season since 2007.
The Dolphins turned over the roster this offseason, and in the eyes of many, not for the better.
The online sportsbook Bovada announced this week that the Dolphins are a 50-to-1 long shot to win the AFC, the second-worst odds in the conference — ahead of just the Jets.
That means the betting public believes the Dolphins are worse than even the Cleveland Browns, who have won one game total the past two seasons, and the Buffalo Bills, whose likely starting quarterback was just slightly above average in the Mountain West Conference last year.
Over at MyTopSportsBooks.com, oddsmakers are more optimistic about Miami's chances, but not by a lot. They list the Dolphins at 65-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, ahead of just three AFC teams: Cleveland, Buffalo and New York.
Miami's estimated win total? Six-point-five — which means that, even with their starting quarterback back healthy and their roster overhaul, the Dolphins will basically be the same as they were last year (and we all remember how little fun that was).
Over at BetOnline.AG, the Dolphins' over-under on wins is even worse: 5 1/2. The odds to win the Super Bowl? A staggering plus-10,000, tied with four teams for the worst on the board. Put in layman's terms, the Dolphins have a 1 percent chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta on Feb. 3, 2019.
How about the pundits? Are they any more bullish?
Nope.
Over at ESPN, a panel of 80 writers, editors and TV personalities ranked the Dolphins 30th out of 32 teams — ahead of only the Browns and Colts.
The write-up: "Last season, the Dolphins were one of three teams to rank in the bottom half of the league in Total QBR, Total QBR allowed, yards per rush and yards per rush allowed. Translation: They needed a lot of help. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick should be a good foundational piece for the defense. The Dolphins also grabbed a pair of tight ends to support returning QB Ryan Tannehill."
NFL.com read the landscape exactly the same, listing the Dolphins as the league's third-worst team.
The outlook is only slightly sunnier at CBSSports.com — which ranks the Dolphins 23rd.
Now, the Dolphins surely think this is all nonsense. They believe they have improved their roster and their culture over the past three months. And besides, last year was a complete disaster — and they still would have made the playoffs with wins in their final three games.
Furthermore, there are teams every year that end up being far better than expected.
Just ask the Bills, Jaguars and Rams, who all made the playoffs despite being predicted to lose double-digit games in 2017.
However, Vegas got a lot right, too. The teams with the three lowest expected win totals last season went a combined 11-37.
Let's be clear: Another 10-loss season will be completely unacceptable in the eyes of Dolphins owner Stephen Ross, who twice now has acknowledged at least some doubt about his front office's plan.
If Ross' worst fears are realized on the field this year, you can bet people will lose their jobs. We do not know who, but at the very least, a losing season would mean the end for Ryan Tannehill in Miami.
He's in Year 7, and if he does not deliver now (with the Dolphins' entire offseason plan focused on maximizing his ability), it's hard to see how he ever will.
But that probably will not be enough. Several assistants are gone or reassigned after last year's poor season. A second consecutive one would lead to even more drastic turnover.
It feels like every Dolphins season is a watershed moment. But this year, it's actually true.
This story was originally published May 8, 2018 at 11:24 AM with the headline "Hardly anyone outside of Dolphins headquarters is bullish on Miami's 2018 chances."