What data says about McGrady’s critical comment about Giannis. And one concern
Of the hundreds of comments spewed by NBA pundits and ex-players in the aftermath of the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade to the Heat, this one — in particular — caught our attention:
“As great as Giannis is, he’s been great the last five years, he’s still a guy that can’t be my 1A,” seven-time All Star and NBC analyst Tracy McGrady said. “He’s a guy that through three quarters, you can carry our team. I can’t give him the ball in the fourth quarter. They need a closer.”
So do the facts support McGrady’s assertion?
In some ways, yes. Antetokounmpo has been a productive player late in close games, averaging 36.8 points per 48 minutes in the clutch this decade (that’s good, but not great) and producing a positive plus-minus in the clutch every season this decade.
But Antetokounmpo’s late game scoring doesn’t measure up to more than a dozen other All Stars, mostly wing players, who shoot a much higher percentage on three-pointers and free throws.
Unless the Heat lands LeBron James, Miami will need Antetokounmpo to carry a lot of the offensive load late in close games. What to know about Antetokounmpo’s play in the clutch over the six full NBA seasons this decade:
▪ Antetokounmpo, who is 12th among active players in scoring at 24.1 points per game, has scored 442 points in 576 clutch minutes in the regular season this decade. (The NBA defines clutch as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer.)
That’s not bad, but for perspective, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 175 points in 125 clutch minutes this past regular season. Anthony Edwards scored 135 in 93, Cade Cunningham 121 in 105, Jalen Brunson 116 in 118, Steph Curry 77 in 61, Donovan Mitchell 88 in 96, Jaylen Brown 91 in 95, Devin Booker 101 in 103 and Tyrese Maxey 144 in 158.
You will notice a trend: All of those players are guards and that’s not a coincidence. They all have the ball in their hands late in close games. They’re high percentage three-point shooters and free-throw shooters; Antetokounmpo is a lot of things, but he’s not either of those.
Only two high volume power rotation players scored at or near a point a minute in the clutch last season: Nikola Jokic with 155 points in 152 minutes and Victor Wembanyama with 77 in 80.
Antetokounmpo, conversely, scored 51 in 70 clutch minutes this past season (similar to his stats every year in this category). That’s more along the lines of today’s older versions of James (50 points in 68 clutch minutes last season) and Kevin Durant (146 in 188).
But that’s better than 2025-26 clutch scoring output of Paolo Banchero (72 points in 152), Zion Williamson (67 in 103), Cooper Flagg (89 in 153) and Bam Adebayo (43 in 82).
▪ To his credit, Antetokounmpo shoots well above average from the field in the clutch. He has made 47.8% of his clutch field goal attempts in six seasons this decade (143 for 299).
As perspective, among 72 players who took at least 30 clutch shots last season, Antetokounmpo’s shooting percentage would have ranked 26th – better than Brunson’s 42.4% (14 of 33).
He shot between 51% and 57% \in the clutch three times in four years — and 46.7% two seasons ago — before closing at 43.6% this past season in a smaller sample size (17 for 39).
▪ But Antetokounmpo, who’s a career 28.5% three-point shooter (33.3 last season), has shot only 10 for 32 on clutch threes this decade (31.2%).
Adebayo taking clutch threes isn’t the answer, either; he shot 3 for 14 on clutch threes last season.
So the Heat’s three-point shooting late in games remains a concern, though Andrew Wiggins was a very good 8 for 13 on clutch threes last season.
▪ Antetokounmpo has been able to consistently get to the line late in close games; that’s one of his biggest strengths in the clutch.
During the past six seasons, he had attempted 206 clutch free throws in 576 clutch minutes. But he has made only 146 of them, equalling 70.9%. The past two years, he was 25 for 37 and 17 for 26 on clutch free throws.
During the Bucks’ 2021 run to the NBA Finals, he was 7 for 19 on clutch free throws. But he went 13 for 22 from the field and scored 33 in 44 clutch minutes during that march to a championship.
▪ Among some other positives of his clutch play: He averages 18 rebounds per 48 minutes in the clutch. And most importantly, the Bucks were 103-65 in clutch games when he was on the floor since the start of the 2020-21 season.
Milwaukee outscored teams by 206 points in his 576 clutch minutes over the past six regular seasons.
▪ On the flip side, injuries and deficiencies in the Bucks’ roster have led to limited and underwhelming clutch playoff minutes over the past five years.
The Bucks didn’t play past the regular season this year, and during the four previous years, Antetokounmpo shot just 8 for 19 in 37 clutch playoff minutes; Milwaukee was outscored by 26 points in those minutes.
The last time Antetokounmpo played a lot (and well) in the clutch in the playoffs was the Bucks’ 2021 title run, when he was a plus 31 (with 33 points) in 44 clutch playoff minutes, despite the poor free throw shooting.
▪ The conclusion: Antetokounmpo is historically productive in the clutch, but he’s not the quintessential top-of-the-line volume scorer in the clutch, nor is he the type of efficient three-point or free-throw shooter that the league’s top contenders generally have to give the ball to late in close games.
And that raises the broader question about whether a team led by Antetokounmpo and Adebayo — but one without an elite wing player — will score enough, and create enough offense, late in playoff games to play into June. Much of that will depend on the supporting cast and the wing players that the Heat can assemble around them over the next five seasons.
If the offense falters consistently down the stretch, the Heat might someday need to do something it wouldn’t consider now: trading Adebayo, who has been deemed untouchable, for an elite wing player. It seems unlikely that Miami would ever pursue that path, but the Heat somehow needs to find a late-game wing assassin in the years ahead.
This story was originally published July 14, 2026 at 12:27 PM.
