High-stakes Giannis sweepstakes reaches critical point as draft nears. What Heat must consider
Which team will blink first in the high-stakes Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes — the Miami Heat or Milwaukee Bucks? That’s the big question, as the start of the two-day NBA Draft on Tuesday nears.
With Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam making clear recently that the team would like to make a decision on Antetokounmpo’s future with the organization by next week’s NBA Draft, the Heat hopes to have some clarity on its pursuit of the two-time NBA MVP in the next few days.
While Adebayo is the only Heat player truly off the table in Antetokounmpo trade discussions, the Heat also doesn’t want to gut its team and draft capital in a deal. Miami’s front office is apparently only willing to go so far in a trade for Antetokounmpo.
But is it far enough for the Bucks to agree to trade Antetokounmpo to Miami? That remains to be seen.
The Heat believes it has some leverage in this situation for various reasons, including the fact that Antetokounmpo can become a free agent next offseason and has interest in joining Miami. But the Bucks also have some leverage because they are the team with the player the Heat covets.
Will the Heat or Bucks come together in the days ahead to finally agree to an Antetokounmpo trade?
Here are some things that the Heat’s front office must consider in the coming hours and days:
Which players and/or combination of players are off limits in any trade offer to the Bucks?
While Adebayo is the only Heat player completely off limits in trade discussions with the Bucks, Heat brass also doesn’t want to give up all of its young players in a trade for Antetokounmpo.
While the expectation is any Heat trade offer for Antetokounmpo would need to include Tyler Herro and Kel’el Ware, should the Heat also give up Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, Pelle Larsson and Nikola Jovic in the deal if the Bucks ask for all of them?
Remember, the Heat would also be trading the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft in a trade for Antetokounmpo.
So, a trade offer including Herro, Ware, Jaquez, Jakucionis, Larsson, Jovic and the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft would include five of the Heat’s last six first-round picks (Herro in 2019, Jovic in 2022, Jaquez in 2023, Ware in 2024 and Jakucionis in 2025), a second-round selection who has turned into a rotation fixture in Larsson and this year’s Heat first-round pick.
While all of these players are likely on the table in trade talks with the Bucks, the Heat is seemingly drawing a line on how many of them Milwaukee can have in an Antetokounmpo trade.
Should the Heat hold back any draft capital from the Bucks?
If a trade is agreed to before the start of Tuesday’s first round of the draft, the Heat would be able to include three first-round picks and multiple pick swaps in a trade offer to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo.
Technically, the Heat isn’t eligible to trade its 2026 first-round pick (No. 13 overall) because NBA rules prevent teams from being without a first-round selection in two consecutive years (the Heat sent a top-14 protected first-round 2027 pick to the Charlotte Hornets in the Terry Rozier trade). But the Heat could pick a player on behalf of another team at No. 13 in the first round of this year’s draft as part of a prearranged trade.
The Heat would be able to use its first-round selection in this year’s draft to make a pick for the Bucks, and could also include its 2030 and 2032 first-round picks or its 2031 or 2033 first-round picks as part of the trade package for Antetokounmpo. NBA teams are only allowed to trade picks up to seven drafts into the future.
But this could have the Bucks controlling the Heat’s first-round picks through 2033.
This was already a lot of draft capital to give up, but the league’s new antitanking draft reform termed the “3-2-1 lottery” could make giving up all of these selections even more painful for Miami.
This new system expands the lottery to 16 teams, flattens the odds, and includes a relegation zone where the teams with the bottom-three records will be penalized with fewer lottery balls for the No. 1 pick. The bottom line is those selections will have a better chance of moving up (into the top 10 or even top five) if they end up in the lottery.
This new lottery system will be utilized for a three-year experimental span and will expire after the 2029 draft, with the board of governors then allowed to vote to continue the system or transition to a new one.
All the future picks that the Heat can include in a trade come after this three-year experimental phase of the new lottery system ends in 2029. But if league owners decide to continue using this new lottery format after 2029, Miami’s two future first-round selections that it can include in a deal for Antetokounmpo become even more valuable.
Should the Heat be willing to take back some other contracts from the Bucks in a Giannis trade?
The three players who the Bucks would reportedly like to attach to Antetokounmpo in a trade to get off their salaries are center Myles Turner, and/or forwards Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis.
Turner has three years and $83 million remaining on his contract. He’s due $26.6 million this upcoming season.
Kuzma will be on an expiring $20.5 million contract this upcoming season.
Portis is due $14.5 million this upcoming season and then has a $15.6 player option for the 2027-28 season.
Taking back any of these players could make it tough for the Heat to avoid the luxury tax this upcoming season depending on how Miami fills out the rest of its roster.
The problem with that is the Heat would be a luxury tax team in three of the last four seasons if it ends up as a luxury tax team next season. This isn’t ideal, considering the onerous repeater tax that’s triggered when a team crosses the luxury-tax threshold in four straight seasons or four times during a five-season period.
It’s also worth noting that the Heat would become hard-capped at the first apron if it takes back more salary than it sends out in a trade, which would restrict how Miami can fill out the rest of its roster following an Antetokounmpo trade.
Could Antetokounmpo really hit free agency in 2027 if he’s not traded to the Heat?
If the Heat is unable to trade for Antetokounmpo this offseason, it could just sign him outright in free agency in 2027. Miami is likely using this as leverage in trade talks with Milwaukee because Antetokounmpo has interest in being dealt to the Heat.
That’s because Antetokounmpo is essentially on an expiring contract, with a player option for the 2027-28 season. That provides him leverage to force his way to a specific team because of the long-term commitment teams will need from Antetokounmpo to give up the players and draft picks needed to acquire him in a trade.
And the Heat is currently on track to have max-level salary cap space for the 2027 offseason. The only players who the Heat currently has signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2027-28 season are Adebayo ($53.5 million salary for 2027-28) and Jovic ($14.9 million), with the 2027-28 salaries of first-round selections Ware ($7.1 million) and Jakucionis ($4 million) also expected to eventually become guaranteed.
The big question is, does the Heat really feel confident that it could get Antetokounmpo in free agency next offseason? Stars rarely hit free agency in today’s NBA, with many of them signing extensions before they hit the open market.
Could the Boston Celtics or another team ruin the Heat’s plan, swooping in and trading for Antetokounmpo this offseason and getting a long-term commitment from him?
Antetokounmpo becomes eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million contract extension with the Bucks on Oct. 1. But if he’s dealt, he would become eligible for that extension with his new team six months following the trade.
