How results for Knicks, Celtics, Cavs/Mitchell, other East teams impact Heat
Even as playoff bystanders, the Heat is feeling the impact of the ongoing NBA playoffs.
While the Heat’s goal remains what it was the day the season ended — trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo or another elite player – the offseason landscape has changed somewhat nevertheless, based on results so far in a postseason that the Heat observed entirely from the sidelines for the first time this decade.
How results involving Eastern Conference playoff winners and losers could impact the Heat:
▪ Cleveland advancing to the Eastern finals:
Forget the Cavaliers trading Donovan Mitchell or Mitchell asking out; the odds were against either happening even before Mitchell advanced to a conference finals for the first time on Sunday night.
If the Cavs play decently against the Knicks — and if Evan Mobley continues his strong play — it’s difficult to imagine Cleveland trading Mobley and its two tradeable first-rounders for Antetokounmpo. That deal currently would violate NBA rules, anyway, because the Cavs’ payroll is at a level that creates trade restrictions.
But such a hypothetical trade could satisfy cap rules if the Cavs shed money or James Harden takes less money initially in a new deal, which is a strong possibility.
A longtime Milwaukee-based NBA writer reported recently that the Bucks wanted Mobley and all the Cavs’ first-round draft inventory for the two-time MVP.
The Heat loves Mitchell, but any chance for Miami to land him likely would come in 2027 free agency, it at all. Mitchell is due $50 million next season and has a $54 million player option for 2027-28.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst noted that it behooves Mitchell not to sign a four-year, $272 million extension (he becomes eligible in July) and instead wait until free agency in the summer of 2027, when he could sign a five-year, $350 million deal because he will have 10 years of service time.
If Mitchell waits to sign, the Heat would loom as a threat because Miami is positioned to have max cap space in 2027 and because Mitchell is very close with Bam Adebayo and spends time in South Florida in the offseason. But Mitchell also has given no indication that he wants to leave Cleveland.
▪ Orlando blowing a 3-1 lead and losing in the first round in Detroit:
The Magic, which is searching for a new coach, likely will try to upgrade a roster that shrunk late in its playoff series and overall fell well short of expectations.
Orlando reportedly pursued Antetokounmpo before the February trade deadline, and the Magic could offer Franz Wagner, who averaged 24 and 20 points the past two seasons but played in only 60 and 34 games because of injuries.
But the Magic has only one tradeable first round pick after dealing four to Memphis for Desmond Bane last summer.
▪ Boston’s first-round loss:
The Celtics’ stunning seven-game elimination by Philadelphia has put the league on alert, because chief basketball executive Brad Stevens likely will be aggressive in shaking up a roster that has been ousted before the conference finals each of the past two postseasons.
Boston has three tradeable first round picks and other appealing chips in Derrick White and Sam Hauser.
Despite speculation, there has been no hard evidence to suggest the Celtics will look to trade Jaylen Brown (who likely would interest the Heat). But certainly nothing can be ruled out on that front.
A Brown-for-Antetokounmpo trade is financially viable because of their nearly identical salaries. Longtime NBA writer Marc Stein said if that deal were to happen, the Bucks likely would try to flip Brown for assets. The Heat would figure to be an active participant in those hypothetical discussions. But that’s all speculation for now.
▪ Detroit’s second-round loss to Cleveland:
The Pistons’ playoff exit could have them thinking big, with four first-rounders and potentially Jalen Duren to dangle if they’re concerned about giving Duren max money after a great regular season but an immensely disappointing postseason.
But would Antetokounmpo want to go there, even if the Pistons pursued a trade for him?
Impending free agent Tobias Harris had a strong postseason but a poor Game 7 against Cleveland; he could be a candidate for Miami’s $15.5 million midlevel exception on a one-year deal if Andrew Wiggins departs and if the market dries up for Harris.
Only $2 million of Duncan Robinson’s $16 million salary for next season is guaranteed. The Pistons need his shooting, despite other limitations in his game. He could fill a Heat void if he’s set free and if Norman Powell moves on in free agency, but a return to Miami would be mildly surprising.
▪ Knicks’ advancing to the Eastern finals:
Antetokounmpo’s interest in the Knicks — already well known — likely will only strengthen if they make the Finals.
If New York loses against Cleveland or in the Finals, their decision basically comes down to this: Do they offer OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart (and two tradeable first-rounders) to Milwaukee — an offer that another team likely could top? (Salary cap finagling would be needed in either scenario. If all three of those Knicks were included, other players would need to be sent back to New York.)
An Antetokounmpo-for-Karl Anthony-Towns trade would work within cap parameters, but the Bucks likely aren’t interested in that, ESPN said. A trade that satisfies cap rules and appeals to both teams remains the obstacle here.
▪ Toronto’s first-round loss to Cleveland: Winning 15 more games, securing a No. 5 seed and taking the Cavaliers to seven games could embolden the Raptors to seek a top player to pair with Scottie Barnes.
They would be formidable challengers to the Heat or any whale hunters because they have five tradeable firsts and attractive trade assets including Brandon Ingram and potentially Collin Murray-Boyles.
But they’re barely below the tax line, which complicates matters, and an Antetokounmpo bid would be a huge risk if he declines to commit long-term and opts for 2027 free agency instead.
▪ Atlanta’s first-round loss to the Knicks:
While the Hawks’ humiliating close to the Knicks series might suggest they would go big-game hunting to find a running mate for Jalen Johnson, The Athletic reported that they’re unlikely to pursue Antetokounmpo.
Here’s our Monday look at how Western Conference playoff results could impact the Heat.
