How results for Lakers, Houston, Warriors, Spurs other West teams impact Heat
Since the Heat season ended a bit more than a month ago, there has been no significant turnover, roster or otherwise, inside the Heat’s offices at 601 Biscayne Blvd.
But even while the Heat’s mission remains what it was the day the season ended — trading for Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo or another elite player — the offseason landscape for the Heat has changed somewhat nevertheless, based on results so far in a postseason that the Heat has observed entirely from the sidelines for the first time this decade.
How results involving Western Conference playoff winners and losers might impact the Heat:
▪ Houston losing in the first round: The Rockets’ humbling six-game playoff loss to a Lakers team without Luka Doncic (and Austin Reaves, for part of the series) leaves Houston as a potential threat to Miami in the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
The Rockets likely could trump any Heat offer if they chose, simply by offering a combination of center Alperen Sengun, forward Jabari Smith or guards Reed Sheppard or Fred Van Vleet (if he opts in for next season). Amen Thompson likely would be off limits.
Unlike the Heat, the Rockets don’t have a first-round pick to dangle in this year’s draft.
But the Rockets’ draft assets after 2026 could be more appealing than Miami’s; Houston can offer an unprotected first-rounder from Phoenix in 2027 and one of the two most favorable picks among its own, Houston’s and Dallas’ in 2029.
The Heat, conversely, can pick a player for Milwaukee at No. 13 in this year’s draft and can offer first-round picks in 2030 and 2032 or 2031 and 2033.
There’s no indication the Rockets would trade Kevin Durant, and it’s difficult to envision Miami giving up Kel’el Ware or any valuable assets for Durant when it wouldn’t do so last summer, with Durant a year older now (37).
▪ Minnesota losing in the second round to San Antonio:
As much as the Heat loves Anthony Edwards, a trade is highly unlikely; Edwards — who has three years left on his contract — has shown no interest in leaving and Miami likely wouldn’t have the assets to acquire him, anyway.
But three T-Wolves issues bear monitoring from a Heat perspective:
1). Minnesota could offer better players than the Heat could for Antetokounmpo among Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Rudy Gobert, Terence Shannon Jr., Donte DeVincenzo and Julius Randle. Remember, they tried to acquire him in February.
But per ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the Wolves have just two tradeable first-round picks: No. 29 in next month’s draft and in 2033. The Heat’s tradeable draft inventory is better.
2). Impending unrestricted free agent guard Ayo Dosunmo, who would be a home run signing with the Heat’s midlevel exception ($15.5 million) but likely will command more.
He averaged 14.4 points, and shot 52.1% from the field and 41.4% on threes in 24 games after the Wolves acquired him from Chicago. But Minnesota enters the offseason only $8 million below the luxury tax line.
“Because being in the league for five years, this is my first time being able to go through free agency unrestricted, I’m looking forward to that,” Dosunmo told Minneapolis reporters.
3). From a Heat trade perspective, Randle, unimpressive in the playoffs, wouldn’t be appealing. But Reid — who averaged 13.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and shot 36.2% on threes — would be a good fit alongside Adebayo if the Wolves want to trim payroll.
He’s due $23 million, $25 million and $27 million the next three seasons, and Miami would need to dump Nikola Jovic (and a better asset) on the Wolves or a third team to maintain max cap space for 2027. That’s the only way this could work because Miami wants max cap space in ‘27 if it doesn’t trade for a star this summer.
But in that scenario, Miami wouldn’t have max space if it gives a lucrative deal to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (who could become a restricted free agent that summer) and keeps Kasparas Jakucionis ($4 million team option for 2027-28) and Ware ($7.1 million team option for 2027-28).
That’s why the Heat needs to be very careful with taking on much money that runs past next season.
▪ Golden State losing in the play-in:
At the trade deadline, the Bucks liked the Heat’s offer for Antetokounmpo (Ware, Tyler Herro, another young player, first-round picks and pick swaps) more than Golden State’s offer (highlighted by four first-rounders).
Draymond Green likely would need to be part of any Warriors offer, but there’s no reason to believe the Bucks suddenly will find Green, backups and four firsts more appealing than the Heat’s package, even though the Warriors — at No. 11 — pick two spots ahead of Miami in June’s draft.
But Golden State would be a concern to Miami only if another star asks out and if that team finds Green and four firsts more attractive than any Heat offer.
▪ The Lakers being swept by OKC in the second round:
As for a hypothetical Antetokounmpo pursuit, Los Angeles can trade essentially the same first-round picks the Heat can (its first-rounder this year) and picks in 2031 and 2033. But the Heat’s first-rounder this year is better (13th to 25th).
And unless a sign-and-trade for free agent Austin Reaves is part of the deal, the Lakers lack the player assets to compete with Miami and other Antetokounmpo suitors.
Though he’s an impending free agent, a LeBron James return to Miami would seem unlikely; the expectation among Lakers reporters is that the Lakers and James will find a way to work it out unless Los Angeles insults him with its salary offer, which would be a surprise.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said James is not going to take a big pay cut to stay in Los Angeles.
If they don’t work it out, James likely will have midlevel exception offers from genuine championship contenders. (Cleveland’s high payroll would make a return there very, very difficult.)
▪ Portland’s first-round loss to the Spurs:
The Blazers could make a more attractive offer for Antetokounmpo than the Heat in part because they control much of the Bucks’ draft future. The Damian Lillard trade gave Portland the right to swap picks with the Bucks in 2028, 2029 and 2030, with Boston also involved in that complicated permutation.
The Blazers also have appealing young players in Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara and Orlando’s unprotected 2028 first-round pick. But the risk of Antetokounmpo leaving after one season would seem too great for Portland.
▪ Denver’s first-round playoff loss to Minnesota:
Though all the attractive teams with max cap space in 14 months (the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Heat) can dream about Nikola Jokic entering free agency in 2027, that remains highly unlikely.
Jokic reiterated after the Nuggets’ playoff ouster that he wants to finish his career with the Nuggets.
But Denver says it’s open to trading anyone else. It’s difficult to see the Heat trading for Jamal Murray (due $50 million, $55 million, $57 million the next three seasons), when an Adebayo-Murray tandem (and whatever is left) likely wouldn’t be enough for a Finals run.
If Heat president Pat Riley is serious about his pronouncement that he will prioritize games played/availability in future personnel decisions, then a move for Aaron Gordon (due $32 million, $34 million and $37 million the next three seasons) would run counter to that, considering he played 51 and 36 games the past two seasons.
▪ Clippers losing in the play-in:
Los Angeles’ failure to make the playoffs raised speculation that L.A. could trade Kawhi Leonard, a possible Heat target with one year left on his contract. But the Clippers landing the fifth overall pick in a loaded draft - a pick that would have gone to Indiana had it fallen in the top four - could make the Clippers more inclined to keep Leonard and try to compete next season, per The Athletic.
▪ San Antonio, Oklahoma City:
As the two Western Conference behemoths begin the conference finals on Monday, it’s difficult to see either dramatically changing its roster, no matter the outcome of this series. They should be the class of the West for years to come.
If the Spurs are mandhandled in this series, they have the assets to pursue Antetokounmpo. But whether they have the incentive is another matter entirely.
Coming next: How Eastern Conference playoff results could impact the Heat.
This story was originally published May 18, 2026 at 2:43 PM.
