What’s at stake for Heat in Sunday’s Draft Lottery, and what it means for expected Giannis pursuit
The odds aren’t on the Miami Heat’s side, but the Heat hopes luck is on its side this weekend.
The Heat enters Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago (3 p.m., ABC) as the 13th lottery seed after missing the playoffs this season for the first time since 2019. The Heat will be represented by current team executive and former player Alonzo Mourning on stage during the televised portion of the unveiling of the lottery results, with Heat assistant general manager Adam Simon working behind the scenes at the actual lottery before the picks are announced to the public.
“Listen man, I like to think I bought the team good luck,” said Mourning, who will serve as the Heat’s lottery representative for the fourth consecutive time after also doing so in 2019 (Tyler Herro), 2017 (Bam Adebayo) and 2015 (Justise Winslow). “Hopefully my representation will help us bring another franchise pillar for the organization. The draft is an opportunity for us to get that next player that we can grow and develop. That next piece.”
As the 13th lottery seed, the odds say the Heat will very likely end up with the 13th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft in June. Miami has a 92.9% chance of sticking at No. 13.
But there’s a small chance Miami can move into the top four, as it can come away from the lottery with the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 13 or No. 14 pick in the first round of this year’s draft.
The Heat’s No. 13 lottery seed comes with a 4.8% chance of landing a top-four selection (1% chance at No. 1, 1.1% chance at No. 2, 1.3% chance at No. 3 and 1.4% chance at No. 4). Kansas guard Darryn Peterson and BYU forward AJ Dybantsa are considered the front-runners to be the top pick in this year’s draft, with Duke forward/center Cameron Boozer, North Carolina forward/center Caleb Wilson and Arkansas guard Darius Acuff among others projected to be selected near the top of the draft.
If the Heat doesn’t move up into the top four, it will stick at No. 13 or fall to No. 14 if the Charlotte Hornets (the No. 14 lottery seed) climb into the top four. The Heat has a 2.3% chance of dropping to No. 14.
Should the Heat stick at No. 13 or even drop to the 14th pick, among those projected to be selected in the middle of the first round of next month’s draft are Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg, Washington forward/center Hannes Steinbach, Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr., Houston forward/center Chris Cenac Jr., international forward Karim Lopez, Baylor wing Cameron Carr, Duke guard Isaiah Evans and Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz.
Since the NBA flattened odds for lottery teams in 2019, 35 teams have been slotted 10th through 14th heading into the lottery. Of those 35 teams, only three have jumped into the top four. The last such occurrence came last year when the Dallas Mavericks skyrocketed from 11th to first despite having only a 1.8% chance to land the top pick before selecting Cooper Flagg.
But the Heat has never moved up in the Draft Lottery. During the Heat’s 11 previous lottery appearances, it has stayed at its projected position five times and dropped from its projected position six times.
In fact, the Heat has only made a top-five selection in the NBA Draft four times in franchise history — picking Glen Rice with the No. 4 overall selection in 1989, adding Steve Smith with the No. 5 overall pick in 1991, taking Dwyane Wade with the No. 5 overall pick in 2003 and selecting Michael Beasley with the No. 2 overall pick in 2008.
But whether the Heat moves up in the lottery or not, there’s a possibility Miami might not keep the player it picks in the first round of this year’s draft.
Technically, the Heat isn’t eligible to trade its 2026 first-round pick because NBA rules prevent teams from being without a first-round selection in two consecutive years. But the Heat could pick a player on behalf of another team in the first round of this year’s draft as part of a prearranged trade.
This is especially important this year because of the Heat’s expected pursuit of Milwaukee Bucks two-time NBA MVP and nine-time All-NBA forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam suggested this week that the Bucks would like to make a decision on Antetokounmpo’s future with the organization by the NBA Draft
“I just think before the draft is a natural time,” Haslam said to reporters in Milwaukee. “Because if Giannis does play somewhere else, we’ve got to have a lot of assets. We will do what’s best for Giannis and what’s best for the organization. We don’t know whether Giannis will stay with us or not.”
The Heat, which was among the teams that aggressively pursued Antetokounmpo in February ahead of the NBA’s trade deadline, would be able to include three first-round picks in a trade offer to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo if a deal is agreed to before the draft.
The Heat would be able to use its first-round selection in this year’s draft to make a pick for the Bucks, and could also include its 2030 and 2032 first-round picks as part of the trade package for Antetokounmpo. NBA teams are only allowed to trade picks up to seven drafts into the future.
The Heat’s 2027, 2028 and 2029 picks aren’t currently eligible to be dealt because of NBA rules, with Miami still owing the Charlotte its 2027 first-round pick if it’s not a top-14 selection as part of the Terry Rozier trade in January 2024. If the Heat’s 2027 first-round pick is a top-14 selection, then Charlotte would receive Miami’s 2028 first-round pick regardless of where it falls in the first round.
If the Heat overcomes long odds in the Draft Lottery to land a top-four pick in this year’s draft, it’s potential trade offer Antetokounmpo would become significantly more attractive. But the Heat would also have an important decision to make on whether to offer that valuable selection for the 31-year-old Antetokounmpo.
Another team getting lucky in the Draft Lottery to jump into the top four could also alter the trade landscape for Antetokounmpo.
The Heat also has a second-round pick in this year’s draft, which comes at No. 41 overall. This is the pick the Heat received from the Hornets to resolve a dispute over Rozier being under NBA and federal investigation over alleged gambling when Charlotte traded him to Miami.
The Heat already opened last season with six of its own first-round draft pick on its roster in Adebayo (lottery pick in 2017), Herro (lottery pick in 2019), Nikola Jovic (2022), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (2023), Kel’el Ware (2024) and Kasparas Jakucionis (2025). That ties the 1992-93 Heat roster for the most on any opening night roster in franchise history.
The results of Sunday’s Draft Lottery could help determine whether the Heat holds on to its first-round pick this year to add to that young core or includes that selection as part of a trade to acquire Antetokounmpo or another All-Star talent this offseason.
The two-day NBA Draft will take place on June 23 (first round) and 24 (second round) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
This story was originally published May 8, 2026 at 10:04 AM.
