Is it time for Heat to make adding size a priority this offseason? Riley: ‘We will address that’
The Eastern Conference teams that entered the NBA playoffs with the fifth through eighth seeds all shared something in common when compared with the Heat: better positional size in their starting lineups.
The Heat, usually by choice, once again played the majority of the season at a size deficit, hoping that small ball would overcome issues that tend to favor teams with more height and length.
At times, those lineups worked: Four of the Heat’s six best lineups, from a plus/minus standpoint, featured 6-9 Bam Adebayo at center and 6-7 Andrew Wiggins at power forward.
“Wiggs sometimes plays the four for us, and you’re talking about going small,” Heat president Pat Riley said during his annual season-ending news conference last week. “And hopefully that your speed and your quickness and shooting can get to the size and their slowness or whatever it is before they can get to you. So that’s playing small.”
But at times, those small lineups did not work. Miami finished the season 20-22 when Adebayo and Wiggins opened games at those specific positions, compared with 14-11 when the Heat opted for the bigger frontcourt with 7-0 Kel’el Ware starting alongside Adebayo.
And those numbers, combined with Spoelstra’s love/hate relationship with the Adebayo/Ware tandem and his appreciation for undersized lineups, has created difficult questions that must be sorted out during a crossroads offseason for the Heat.
Is this the summer that Miami either commits to the Adebayo/Ware lineup as the permanent approach or acquires a prototypical power forward in the mold of a Giannis Antetokounmpo or Pascal Siakam? Or does the Heat go a fifth consecutive season often playing an undersized frontcourt?
In Game 81, Spoelstra went back to the Adebayo/Ware frontcourt, and that tandem ended up playing 505 minutes/1,073 possessions together this season, equal to 6.9 minutes per game in the 73 games when both players suited up. They didn’t play at all together in 24 of the 73 games, even though the Heat outscored teams by 6.7 points per 100 possessions when they played together. They started together only 25 times this season.
Conversely, the Heat played Adebayo at center and Wiggins at power forward for 2,190 possessions. Miami outscored opponents by five points per 100 possessions during that time.
The Heat used the same starting lineup in 10-plus games only twice this season.
One of those lineups — the undersized group of Adebayo, Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell and Tyler Herro — finished 4-7 as an opening quintet and lost its final two starts by 26 and 14 points in Toronto.
The only other lineup that received at least 10 starts together — Adebayo, Ware, Wiggins, Powell and Mitchell — went 6-5 as a group.
The Heat’s smaller lineups were particularly ineffective against the length of Orlando and Toronto. The Heat lost all five games against the Magic and all four of its meetings with the Raptors.
The Heat’s small ball Adebayo-Wiggins pairing was outscored by 48 points in 211 minutes across the Heat’s five matchups against the Magic and four matchups against the Raptors this season.
It’s worth noting, though, that the Heat’s double-big Adebayo-Ware frontcourt wasn’t any better. This duo was outscored by 51 points in 56 minutes together during those nine games against the Magic and Raptors this season.
But the four teams that beat out the Heat for playoff spots over the final two weeks of the season all had more positional size than Miami. Consider:
At point guard, Mitchell (6-0) stood at a deficit against the starters who played those positions for Philadelphia (6-2 Tyrese Maxey), Atlanta’s 6-3 CJ McCollum or 6-7 Dyson Daniels, Toronto’s Immanuel Quickley (6-2) and Orlando’s Jalen Suggs (6-5).
At shooting guard, Herro (6-5) had a size advantage against Philadelphia 6-4 rookie VJ Edgecombe, he was at a deficit against Orlando’s Desmond Bane and Toronto’s RJ Barrett, who are both 6-6, and to an extent against Atlanta’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who’s also 6-5 but has a 6-9 wingspan compared with Herro’s 6-5.
When the 6-7 Wiggins started at power forward, he was at a size deficit against Atlanta’s 6-8 Jalen Johnson, Philadelphia’s 6-10 Adem Bona, Toronto’s 6-8 Scottie Barnes and Orlando’s 6-10 Paolo Banchero.
When the 6-9 Adebayo started at center, alongside Wiggins at power forward, he was at a size deficit against Philadelphia’ 7-0 Joel Embiid, Toronto’s 7-0 Jakob Poetl, Orlando’s 6-10 Wendell Carter Jr. and Atlanta’s 6-11 Onkeya Okongwu.
And when 6-5 Larsson started at small forward in an undersized frontcourt with Adebayo and Wiggins, he stood at height deficit against 6-8 Brandon Ingram (who, like 6-8 teammate Barnes, can alternate between small forward and power forward), Philadelphia’s 6-8 Paul George or 6-8 Kelly Oubre, Atlanta’s 6-7 Daniels (who shifted to small forward in a lineup with McCollum and Alexander Walker) and Orlando’s 6-10 Franz Wagner or 6-8 Tristan DeSilva (who often started when Wagner was injured).
Spoelstra seemed to become enamored with small ball around Adebayo when the Heat made long playoff runs earlier this decade, with undersized lineups featuring 6-5 PJ Tucker or 6-6 Jae Crowder at power forward. But the lineups with Wiggins at power forward have generally been less effective and haven’t led to enough wins.
The Heat’s goal this offseason will be to upgrade its roster (and get bigger in the process) in hopes of producing more wins after missing the playoffs this season for the first time since 2019.
“Overall length, we will address that,” Riley said. “I’ve always been somebody who has believed in that.”