What to know about Heat’s three-point shooting situation. And Hardaway fallout
A six-pack of Heat notes on a Monday, the day the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade with Milwaukee is expected to become official:
▪ The roster still feels one three-point shooter short, and the Heat is believed to have interest in adding another. But here’s the glass-half-full perspective that should keep fans from panicking:
Of the 40 highest-percentage three-point shooters in the league last season, the Heat now has four of them: Bobby Portis, who was second at 45.6%, Andrew Wiggins, who was 13th at 41.4, Tim Hardaway Jr., who was 23rd at 40.7, and Davion Mitchell, who was 38th at 39.5.
Keep in mind that those were full-season career highs for all four players except Portis. And the question is whether they can sustain that elite level, even though all are good three-point shooters.
Consider that Hardaway is a career 36.5% three-point shooter, and last season was the first time in 13 years that he has shot 40% on threes.
Portis topped his 39.3 career three-point average by a full six-plus percentage points.
Wiggins, in 12 seasons, has shot 36.2% on threes and hadn’t reached 40% before doing it last season.
Mitchell deserves enormous credit for improving from a mediocre three-point shooter before he joined the Heat to an exceptional one since coming to Miami. Mitchell has shot 41% on threes in 100 games for Miami, after shooting 32.7% in 227 games for Sacramento and 35.9% in 44 games in Toronto.
If all four can come close to replicating their three-point efficiency last season, the Heat might have enough distance shooting. If they cannot, this team likely will endure some ugly offensive droughts.
Keep in mind that Hardaway has shot 39.4% on threes in 443 career wins, 33.6 in 450 career losses. The correlation between wins/losses and three-point shooting also has been stark in Wiggins’, Portis’ and Mitchell’s careers.
▪ Here’s one underrated upshot of the unique Wiggins deal, which will pay him $30.1 million this season, $16.5 million in 2027-28 and $17.5 million (player option) in 2028-29:
If a disgruntled All Star wing player becomes available before next February’s trade deadline, Wiggins’ contract would be attractive because of the substantial drop in pay in Year 2.
In other words, the Heat could trade for a player making close to $30 million, but the team acquiring Wiggins would be on the hook for only $16.5 million the following season, which is excellent value for a player of his ability.
That also could provide an opportunity to try to attach Nikola Jovic’s four-year, $62 million extension that kicks in.
If the Heat is playing well and there’s no opportunity to trade for someone better than Wiggins, then this become moot. But if Miami feels it needs to augment the team — and if a surprising name hits the trade market — this is worth keeping in mind.
▪ Hardaway, who has $152 million in career earnings, played for the $2.3 million minimum for Denver but commanded $6.5 million from Miami after playing well (at least in the regular season) in 80 games for Denver.
Here’s how Nuggets coach David Adelman assessed his game: “It’s all things great and crazy at the same time. His confidence level, it never wavers, which is a talent I think we wish we all had in certain parts of life. He firmly believes after he misses, the next five are going to go in.”
“He is a green-light player. I’ll never bat an eye if he takes a shot, and he has these nights where he can just turn games. There were multiple times when we got loose balls, and he’s right there, makes an enormous shot to keep us close to them, and I thought defensively he really sat down and guarded. He creates runs. Every night, he helps us in so many ways.”
One major asset is his durability. He has played in 70-plus games each of the past four seasons, which puts him in the minority among NBA players.
▪ One concern with Hardaway has been playoff performance. He has shot 33% on threes in 44 career playoff games. A look at his overall shooting in his last three playoff series:
For Dallas vs. Boston in a 2024 NBA Finals loss: 5 for 15 from the field.
For Detroit against the Knicks in a 2025 first-round playoff loss: 24 for 71 (33.8) from the field and 16 for 52 (30.8) on threes.
For Denver against Minnesota in a 2026 first-round playoff loss: 19 for 45 (42.2) from the field and 8 for 23 (34.8) on threes.
He has 13 assists and 13 turnovers over those three seasons.
▪ Defense is the other concern. Players traditionally have shot a much higher percentage against Hardaway than they do overall.
Last season, players he guarded shot 49.8% (15th worst defensively among all NBA guards); those players shot 46.1 overall.
A year ago for Detroit, Hardaway yielded a 47.3 shooting percentage; those players shot 46% overall.
Two years ago for Dallas, the numbers were 49% (against Hardaway) and 46.7 (overall).
▪ ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said Toronto’s trade for Kawhi Leonard potentially shifted power in the East, but the Antetokounmpo trade did not.
Former NBA star and NBC analyst Carmelo Anthony disagrees: “Miami, that power shift down there with those defensive guys down there with Bam [Adebayo] and Giannis. Tim Hardaway just signed there. You just need shooters. That’s the only [expletive] you need.
“You put Giannis in the Heat Culture? You put Giannis in there, and he implements that mentality of what he already has? That’s scary. Now Bam can roam. Giannis can roam. It’s like shut down. Wiggs still guards.”
News note
Hardaway Jr. is going to wear No. 10 after all, Heat radio voice Jason Jackson said on his NBA show on Sirius XM. Last week, Hardaway said he would not permit his son to wear the No. 10 jersey that the father wore when he played for the Heat.
A news conference for Hardaway is expected sooner than a news conference for Antetokounmpo because of their travel schedules.
This story was originally published July 6, 2026 at 10:33 AM.
