Heat gets late-night clarity on draft pick and odds of moving into top four
Needing a dose of good fortune to improve its draft position, the Miami Heat got no luck at all on Friday.
Phoenix’s late-night win against Golden State in a Western Conference play-in game assured that the Heat will enter the May 10 NBA draft lottery with the 13th pick and with a 4.8 percent chance of landing a top-four selection and a 1 percent chance of snagging the No. 1 overall pick.
If the Warriors had won, Miami would have been slotted 12th and had a 7.1 percent chance of landing a top-four pick and a 1.5 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick.
The Heat is slotted 13th because it has the second-best record of the 14 teams who will not be participating in the playoffs. Among lottery-bound teams, only Charlotte has a better record than Miami.
So the Heat will select 13th and the Hornets will pick 14th in the June 23-24 draft if neither team defies odds and moves into the top four during the weighted draft lottery.
The Heat needed Phoenix - which has a better record than Miami - to lose Friday for the Heat to move up to 12th. But the Suns led throughout the second half Friday to end Golden State’s season.
The Warriors will be slotted 11th, and Oklahoma City (which owns the Clippers’ first round pick) will be in the 12th spot, just in front of the Heat.
The lottery determines the top four picks in the draft; the 10 other teams pick in inverse order of record.
So the Heat can pick only first, second, third or fourth (if they defy the odds); or 13th; or 14th (which could happen only if Charlotte overcomes 2.4 percent odds to move into the top four).
ESPN draft analyst Jeremy Woo lists these players as prospects 10 to 17, in order: Arizona guard Brayden Burries, New Zealand-based forward Karim Lopez, Florida forward Thomas Haugh, Connecticut guard Braylon Mullins, Kentucky center Jayden Quaintance, Washington power forward Hannes Steinbach, Texas Tech point guard Christian Anderson and Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg.
BYU’s AJ Dybantsa is considered the front-runner for the top pick, though Kansas forward Darryn Peterson also likely will receive consideration. Duke’s Cameron Booker, North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson, Illinois’ Keaton Wagler and Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr. also are projected to be selected in the top half of the lottery.
Since the NBA flattened odds for the lottery teams in 2019, 35 teams have been slotted 10th through 14th heading into the lottery. Of those 35 teams, only three have jumped into the top four:
1). The 2019 Lakers, who rose from 11th to 4th, with that pick (DeAndre Hunter) used in a package to acquire Anthony Davis from New Orleans, which traded Hunter to the Hawks.
2). The 2024 Hawks, who jumped from 10th to first – despite only having a three percent chance to do so - and used that pick on Zaccharie Risacher, who has been a mild disappointment.
3) The 2025 Mavericks skyrocketed from 10th to 1st - despite having only a 1.8 percent chance - to snag the top pick, allowing them to draft Flagg.
Even before the lottery was tweaked in 2019, jumps into the top three of the lottery, among teams with the best records of non-playoff teams, were highly unusual. The most notable of those jumps resulted in Seattle snagging Gary Payton (1990), Orlando landing Chris Webber (1993) and Charlotte landing Baron Davis (1997).
During the 21st century, two 13th overall picks have earned all NBA honors: Donovan Mitchell (twice) and Devin Booker (twice).
Other players selected 13th overall who became All Stars include Detroit’s Jalen Duren, the Heat’s Tyler Herro and the Kings’ Zach LaVine. Herro is the Heat’s only previous 13th overall pick.
This story was originally published April 18, 2026 at 12:43 AM.
