Play-in tourney now seems inevitable for reeling Heat: ‘Whatever happens, happens at this point’
With the Miami Heat competing for play-in tournament positioning and the Boston Celtics looking to clinch the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 playoff seed in the final days of the regular season, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra acknowledged reality before Wednesday’s matchup between the two teams.
“They’re probably looking at us the way they should,” Spoelstra said of the Celtics during his pregame media session. “They don’t see us as a threat. We need to play better. We understand that. We understand where we are. We understand what’s happened. We’re not oblivious to things. ... Tonight’s another opportunity for us to change that.”
But Wednesday’s game between the Heat and Celtics didn’t change that. Instead, it served as further confirmation of the wide gap currently separating the two teams just three years after Miami and Boston faced off in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals.
The Celtics routed the Heat 147-129 on Wednesday night at Kaseya Center to sweep the regular-season series between the two teams 4-0. Not only did it mark the first time that the Celtics have swept a four-game regular-season series against the Heat since the 2016-17 season, but Boston has also now won 17 of its last 20 games against the Heat (including the 2024 first-round playoff series between the teams that Boston won 4-1).
The Heat lost by 18 points despite shooting an eye-opening 24 of 47 (51.1%) from three-point range to tie its franchise record for three-point makes in a game. It marked the most points that an NBA team has ever lost a game by when hitting at least 24 threes, as teams are now 117-10 when making 24 or more threes in a game in league history.
This rare occurrence happened because the Heat turned in one of its worst statistical defensive performances in franchise history, allowing the Celtics to finish with 147 points on 58.3% shooting from the field and 21-of-44 (47.7%) shooting on threes. Boston ended up outscoring Miami 70-40 on twos, including 58-36 in the paint.
The 147 points are the third-most points that the Heat has ever allowed in a game, two points from the franchise record of 149 points allowed that was set just last week in Friday’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Wednesday also marked the Heat’s worst single-game defensive rating in franchise history, allowing the Celtics to score at a rate of 151.5 points per 100 possessions.
But Spoelstra wasn’t as critical about the Heat’s defense on Wednesday as he has been for other recent poor performances.
“I mean, this is going to sound crazy, but this is different than the other games that we’re talking about,” Spoelstra said, with the Heat now entering a two-day break before hosting the Washington Wizards on Saturday. “Our guys were locked in and competing. There was an exceptional level of shot-making on their part to start the game.
“This game felt different than the other games, where maybe we just didn’t bring that disposition. We brought a disposition. You have to tip your hat to the shot-making that they had in this game.”
Regardless of how the Heat feels about Wednesday’s defensive effort, the team’s defensive metrics continue to slip.
With the Heat now 2-8 in its past 10 games, Miami has posted the NBA’s 29th-ranked defensive rating (allowing 126.4 points per 100 possessions) during that stretch since March 14. Before this rough 10-game stretch, the Heat had the NBA’s fourth-ranked defensive for the season (allowing 111.3 points per 100 possessions).
“Some nights are just not your night,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said. “Right now is not the best time to not have nights that aren’t our night, so it’s not really an excuse.”
The Heat’s recent slide has it seemingly headed for an appearance in the NBA’s play-in tournament for the fourth straight season.
With only five games left in the regular season, the Heat entered Thursday in 10th place in the East.
The No. 10 Heat (40-37) entered Thursday one loss behind the No. 9 Orlando Magic (40-36) and No. 8 Charlotte Hornets (40-36).
The Heat also entered Thursday three losses behind the No. 7 Toronto Raptors (42-34) and No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers (42-34), and four losses behind the No. 5 Atlanta Hawks (44-33).
According to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report, the Heat entered Thursday with just a 4% chance of finishing with a top-six seed in the East to avoid the play-in tourney.
“We have great competitors,” Spoelstra said. “So look, there are some disappointing games of late, and you want your guys having that level of care factor and frustration and even anger. All of that. It means our guys really care about this. And we weren’t able to take advantage of a couple opportunities that we wanted to, but we still have an opportunity where we are. And we have to focus now on compartmentalizing and really just taking each game as an opportunity to take another step forward.”
How does the play-in tournament work?
The seventh-place team in each conference hosts the eighth-place team in a play-in game. The winner of this matchup earns the seventh playoff seed.
The ninth-place team in each conference hosts the 10th-place team in another play-in game. The loser of this matchup is eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner of this matchup goes on the road to take on the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game for the right to the eighth playoff seed.
The teams that are eliminated in the play-in tournament before getting to the playoffs are seeded into the NBA Draft lottery based on regular-season record. The play-in tourney will take place from April 14-17.
“I think the last week or so, two weeks, it has been a super important stretch for us,” Herro said. “Win or lose, we still have to stay in the fight, stay in the saddle, and understand that we’ve got another game in a day. So we’ve got to be ready to go.”
The Heat, which has entered the playoffs as the East’s No. 8 seed through the play-in tournament in each of the past three years, has made it known it’s first goal this season was to avoid the play-in tourney.
It appears the Heat won’t accomplish that, and now coaches and players have to recalibrate their goals for the final five games of the regular season.
“See if we can win all five, and then figure out whatever happens after that,” Heat captain Bam Adebayo said of the mission for the final five games of the regular season. “We’re going to take it one game at a time and whatever happens, happens at this point.”
If the Heat does make the playoffs for the seventh straight season, it has a long way to go to catch up to the Celtics and other elite teams. How does Miami plan to close that gap with the playoffs set to begin in just two weeks?
“We’ll figure it out in two weeks,” Adebayo said.
