Heat pushing to avoid play-in tourney for first time in four years: ‘That’s our first goal’
The Miami Heat’s goal over the final two months of this season is to do something it hasn’t done in four years.
Avoid the NBA’s play-in tournament.
“Our coach talks about it every day,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said. “As players, really me and Bam [Adebayo] who’ve been here, we want to get out of the play-in. That’s our goal, or that’s our first goal. We’ve got a lot of goals, but that’s actually our first goal.”
After needing to qualify for the play-in tournament in each of the last three seasons, the Heat again finds itself in play-in tournament territory this season.
But with the Heat as healthy as it has been all season and after routing the undermanned Memphis Grizzlies 136-120 on Saturday night at Kaseya Center for its third straight win, there’s renewed hope that the play-in tournament can be avoided this season. This is the Heat’s first three-game winning streak since winning four straight from Dec. 26 through Jan. 1.
“Nothing else matters besides winning,” Heat guard Norman Powell said. “I think that’s the most important thing. And I think we’re really starting to buy into the collective effort and trusting one another and working the game. I think that’s the biggest part. I think, obviously, us being finally healthy. ... I think it’s the healthiest we’ve been all year. And we just want to continue to build that chemistry and do all the little things to help us pull these games out, and not have any slippage and continue to focus on our goal of getting out of the play-in.”
With the NBA’s play-in tourney featuring the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference, the Heat enters Sunday in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings.
The Heat’s win over the Grizzlies paired with the Orlando Magic’s double-overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns on Saturday moved Miami past Orlando for seventh place in the East. After Saturday’s win, the seventh-place Heat (31-27) entered Sunday one-half game ahead of the eighth-place Magic (29-26).
With the sixth-place Philadelphia 76ers also losing to the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, the Heat moved closer to the sixth spot it needs to reach to avoid the play-in tourney. The Heat is now just percentage points behind the sixth-place 76ers (30-26).
The Heat is also three games behind the fifth-place Toronto Raptors (33-23).
The Magic, 76ers and Raptors all play on Sunday, while the Heat is idle until beginning a two-game trip on Tuesday against the Bucks in Milwaukee.
The Heat still has one game left to play against the Magic this regular season, but Orlando already holds the head-to-head tiebreaker because it leads the five-game regular-season series against Miami 4-0.
The Heat has two games left to play against the 76ers, and can clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over Philadelphia with a win in either of those two remaining matchups. The Heat, which takes on the 76ers in Philadelphia on Thursday, already won the first of the teams’ three meetings this regular season.
“We want to get out of the play-in, so we’re locked into it,” Powell said. “We know what we need to do. Obviously, we’re not hoping, wishing somebody is going to come help us. It’s all on us. So, controlling what we can control as a team and going out there and playing our style of basketball and putting our best foot and best effort forward to give us a chance to get out of that.”
According to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report, the Heat actually entered Sunday with a 71.4 percent chance of finishing with a top-six seed in the East to make the playoffs without needing to take part in the play-in tournament. Basketball Reference’s modeling has the Heat’s most likely regular-season finish listed at 32.5 percent for fifth place in the East.
As for the Heat dropping further in the East standings and completely falling out of the play-in tournament/playoff contention, that’s extremely unlikely with Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report giving only a miniscule chance of that scenario. The Heat enters Sunday 4.5 games ahead of the 10th-place Charlotte Hornets, five games ahead of the 11th-place Milwaukee Bucks and 6.5 games ahead of the 12th-place Chicago Bulls.
“We can’t control what other teams are doing,” Powell added. “Obviously, we want to have them have a little downfall while we’re kicking into gear and getting these wins. But, yeah, we’re focused on how we need to play and how we need to compete every single night. It doesn’t matter what the team is in the standings and where they’re at, but playing a brand of basketball that we’re happy about and going out there and getting these wins.”
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is optimistic that Miami’s best basketball of the season is still ahead, as it has only had its full rotation available for six games this season due to injury issues. Despite missing starting guard Davion Mitchell in Saturday’s win because of an illness, the Heat is now as healthy as it has been in months.
The Heat enters Sunday with the NBA’s 15th-best offensive rating and fourth-best defensive rating this season. The Heat is one of just four NBA teams with a top-15 offensive rating and top-five defensive rating this season, along with three of the league’s best teams in the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons.
“I have a lot of positive feelings about our team and our depth,” Spoelstra said. “We’ve used it all season long. We’ve used it when guys have been out. [Friday’s win in Atlanta] was an example of when we had our full roster. You could feel the depth. You could feel the level of talent that we have on the roster. It is just one game, but we have to build and stack.”
Build and stack, and finish the regular season among the East’s top six teams to avoid the play-in tournament. Miami has 24 regular-season games left to play.
“We have a great opportunity in front of us,” Spoelstra continued. “There’s been a lot of narratives around the league, a bunch of different things. We just see opportunity in front of us. We’re getting healthier right now just at the right time. We feel like we have everything we need to make a run. But we have to prove it. And that’s what’s exhilarating about it is the competition. There’s only one team that wins it. Everybody else is chasing it, and it’s what keeps us feeling alive. We’re just looking forward to this final run.”
