Heat lottery update; how changes will impact franchise. And this year’s odds
The way the NBA intends to discourage teams from tanking, beginning next season, likely will leave Heat fans asking the league: “You couldn’t have done this four years ago?”
In a cruel twist for the Heat, all three of the NBA’s anti-tanking proposals that are reportedly under consideration would have given the Heat a chance to participate in the draft lottery the past three years and potentially this May, too.
The problem is that whatever proposal the NBA chooses won’t go into effect until next season.
Under the current rules, no team that advances from the play-in to the playoffs has a chance to participate in the draft lottery and earn a top-four pick. Under the likely new system, teams that advance from the play-in to the playoffs — as the Heat did the past three seasons — can participate in the lottery and have a chance to land a top-four pick.
ESPN has reported that the three proposals under consideration likely will be tweaked before being submitted to the Board of Governors for a vote in a special meeting in May. But all three proposals would allow either 18 or 22 teams to participate in the lottery.
The good news is that the Heat worded the Charlotte trade in a way that protects Miami if there’s an expanded lottery. The first-round pick that Miami owes Charlotte (from the Terry Rozier trade) is top-14 protected in 2027 but unprotected in 2028. So the Heat would keep its top-14 protected 2027 first-round pick provided it’s in the top 14, even if the lottery expands to 18 or 22 teams. If the Heat hadn’t worded the trade that way, then Miami would be at greater risk of the first-round pick conveyed to Charlotte being unprotected.
In the NBA’s first and third proposals, all 10 teams that miss the postseason entirely, plus all eight teams in the play-in tournament, would be in the lottery.
In the NBA’s second proposal, the 10 teams that miss the postseason, the eight in the play-in, and the four teams eliminated in the first round of the playoffs would all be included, creating a 22-team lottery.
Instead of the bottom three teams having the best odds, the worst 10 teams would all have an equal 8% chance to win the top pick under the first proposal.
This removes the incentive to have the absolute worst record, as the 10th-worst team has the same odds as the worst team.
One minor downside for the Heat: If 18 or 22 teams have a chance to win the lottery — instead of the current 14 teams — that further increases the value of first-round picks, making it less likely that a team would offer a first-round pick for any of the Heat’s veteran non-Bam Adebayo assets (except for possibly Kel’el Ware).
The flip side is that teams that have more first-round draft inventory than the Heat might be reluctant to part with four or five first-round picks for a player, which could level the playing field for the Heat.
One hypothetical example would be the Heat’s expected pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer. Miami could offer to draft a player for Milwaukee in June and send the Bucks no more than two other first-rounders. While Houston and several other teams could offer four or more first-round picks, teams might be reluctant to trade that many picks (with lottery potential) for an aging star.
This year’s odds
As for this season, the Heat appears very likely to be in the play-in after losing 135-118 to Indiana on Sunday, Miami’s seventh loss in eight games heading into Monday night’s home game against Philadelphia.
If the Heat loses in the play-in, Miami would have a lottery pick in what’s considered one of the best NBA drafts in years and would head into the random-but-weighted lottery slotted 11th or more likely, 12th, 13th or 14th.
The May 10 lottery determines only the top four picks, with the other nonplayoff teams picking in inverse order of record.
So if the Heat loses in the play-in and is the 12th lottery seed (meaning it would have the third-best record among nonplayoff teams), it could pick either 12th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
If Miami is 13th, it could pick only 13th or in the top four. If the Heat enters the lottery as the 14th seed, it could end up drafting only in the top four or 14th.
The 13th lottery seed — where the Heat currently stands — has a 3.8% chance of landing a top-four pick and a 0.8% chance of picking first. The 14th lottery seed — which Charlotte currently occupies — has a 3.4% chance of a top-four pick and a 0.6 chance of the top pick.
If Miami continues its late season tailspin and finishes with a worse record than the Western Conference teams that lose in the play-in, the Heat could rise to the 11th lottery seed (unlikely) or 12th seed.
The 12th lottery seed — currently Portland — has a 7.1% chance of a top-four pick and a 1.5 chance of the top pick. To move up to 11th, the Heat would need to lose a lot and Golden State would need to win a lot during the final two weeks, with both teams then missing the playoffs.
Snagging the 11th lottery seed, which the Warriors now occupy, would give Miami a 9.4% of a top-four pick and a 2.0% chance of landing the top pick.
Players who have been projected to go in that 11-to-14 range include Michigan forward and NCAA Tournament star Yaxel Lendeborg of Michigan, Duke center Patrick Ngongba, Tennessee forward Nate Ament, Florida forward Thomas Haugh and Michigan center Aday Mara, among others.
This story was originally published March 30, 2026 at 10:21 AM.
