From Ware/Adebayo to Powell/Herro to Jovic, Heat needs clarity in next 2 months
“Let’s get to No. 6” is hardly an inspiring battle cry, but that’s the situation that the Heat faces as it tries to escape play-in purgatory when it begins its post-All Star break schedule on Friday in Atlanta (7:30 p.m., FanDuel Sports Sun).
With 26 games remaining, the priority, as coach Erik Spoelstra repeatedly says, is winning games — or at last trying to win games, something the Heat has done only 15 times in its past 35 contests after a 14-7 start.
The Heat enters the backstretch of its schedule in eighth in the East, a half game behind No. 7 Orlando and two behind No. 6 Philadelphia, which holds the last playoff spot that doesn’t require qualifying through the play-in.
The Heat — which stands 2.5 games ahead of No. 9 Charlotte and three games ahead of No. 10 Atlanta — is at risk of falling to a lower play-in seed but seems unlikely to fall out of the play-in; Miami has a 4.5 game cushion over No. 11 Chicago.
It’s all a familiar place for the Heat, which needed to qualify for postseason through the play-in in each of the past three seasons.
While winning trumps all in the Heat’s view, it also would be helpful for the Heat to gain more clarity on several personnel issues during these final two months. Among them:
▪ Forget starting. Can the Heat even project Nikola Jovic as a rotation player next season?
The final eight weeks of the season should provide the answer.
The first 56 games couldn’t have gone any worse, with Jovic’s scoring dropping from 10.7 to 7.7, his shooting percentage dipping from 45.6 to 37 and his three-point accuracy plunging from 37.1 to 27.2, which is worst in the league for any player who shoots at least three per game.
Meanwhile, his assists per game have descended from 2.8 to 2.3, while his turnovers per game have risen from 1.3 to 1.5 per game.
The stunning regression in Jovic’s game has come in the aftermath of signing a four-year, $62 million contract, an extension that kicks in next season, when his salary rises from $4.6 million to $16.2 million, with three more seasons to follow at $14.9 million, $15.1 million and $16.2 million.
Most puzzling has been the long-distance difficulties for a player that entered the season as a career 36% three-point shooter. He said there’s nothing in his mechanics that has been changed or needs changing.
“This year, with the offense we play, you never know the shots you’re going to take, and I take some hard shots,” he said. “With the minutes I have, I feel like I’ve got to put the ball in the basket.”
Among all NBA players who attempt more than two three-pointers per game, only Dallas guard Brandon Williams (22.1) and San Antonio guard Dylan Harper (25.2) have shot threes at a worse percentage than Jovic.
“It does bother me,” he said. “This year my percentages are way, way down, which is weird.”
Spoelstra reiterated: “We like him shooting open shots, being aggressive offensively. You can’t control always whether the ball is going to go in or not.”
▪ Do Tyler Herro and Norm Powell push the Heat toward giving them richer contracts?
With Herro missing 45 of the season’s first 56 games it’s difficult to imagine anything he can do to compel the Heat to give him an extension beyond the $33 million he’s owed next season in the final year of his existing deal. But he is very close to a return from a rib injury that sidelined him for the past 15 games.
Powell’s situation is more complicated, because he’s due to hit free agency July 1 unless the Heat gives him a new deal before that. Powell said recently that the Heat has indicated to his agent that it plans to discuss a new contract.
But Miami has been noncommittal on an extension. His play — which earned his first All Star berth — has been a huge asset (23 points per game, 39.6% on threes) and Heat brass loves his attitude and leadership. The issue is how much to give a player who hasn’t played more than 60 games in four of the past five seasons.
He missed 11 of Miami’s first 56 this season, most recently because of a back ailment. Powell can expect a raise from the $20.4 million he’s earning this season. But is a three-year contract topping $70 million too rich?
Ultimately, the constraints of the salary cap would not logically afford Miami to pay Powell $25 million a year, Herro $40 million a year, on top of Bam Adebayo’s rising salary ($51.9 million next season and $56.1 million the year after). More and more, this is looking like an either/or choice.
The next two months should help determine which player - Powell or Herro - is worth keeping.
▪ Does Spoelstra become comfortable with Kel’el Ware and Adebayo playing big minutes together?
After putting that two-man combo on ice for a month, Spoelstra last week resumed using them together — as he did for the final three months of last season and in 19 starts through early January.
Their side-by-side minutes against Washington, Utah and New Orleans were generally very good (Miami outscored those teams by 68 points during those minutes), but they’re still a poor minus 42 for the season (the Heat’s 10th worst two-man combo). Spoelstra has said they need to rebound better to justify using that tandem.
They were a plus-44 when paired together last season but played poorly in tandem in the first-round sweep against Cleveland.
If Spoelstra determines that Ware/Adebayo can’t be a productive long-term combo, the Heat likely would need to maximize Ware’s value and trade him.
▪ Does rookie guard Kasparas Jakucionis show enough to be projected as a 2026-27 starter?
Jakucionis’ evolution was the most pleasant surprise of early February; he nailed nine threes in a row at one point and is shooting an impressive 45.1% from beyond the arc (37 for 82).
If his three-point binge continues — and if he continues to progress as a playmaker — the Heat could have the option of dangling Davion Mitchell’s team-friendly deal, which will pay him $12.4 million on an expiring contract next season.
More likely, because of Jakucionis’ ability to play off guard at 6-6, the Heat could pair them together at times next season in a hypothetical world in which Powell or Herro - either one or the other — isn’t on the team.
This story was originally published February 19, 2026 at 9:29 AM.
