Where Heat/Antetokounmpo stands as Heat visits Bucks. A creative twist emerges
In an alternate universe — one that would have brought unbridled joy to what coach Erik Spoelstra affectionately calls “Heat Nation” — teary-eyed fans in Milwaukee would have locked their eyes on the Fiserv Forum scoreboard on Tuesday evening.
They would have watched a Giannis Antetokounmpo tribute video during the first TV timeout, while the two-time MVP — awash in emotion – stood alongside his new Heat teammates and waved to the crowd.
Alas, the Heat’s efforts to acquire the Bucks superstar were thwarted before the Feb. 5 trade deadline, and Miami is now squirreling away its assets to make another run this summer. Meanwhile, the Bucks star on Tuesday was set to miss his 12th consecutive game with a right calf strain but is said to be nearing a return.
Whether the Heat gets that opportunity to seriously re-engage the Bucks front office remains to be seen.
If Antetokounmpo informs the Bucks this offseason that he will not sign a four-year, $275 million max extension when he becomes eligible Oct. 1, and instead intends to opt for free agency in July 2027, then Milwaukee likely will have no choice but to trade him.
If he signs the extension and then asks for a trade, he must play at least another full season in Milwaukee. Players who sign those extensions cannot be traded for a year.
During an All-Star break interview with ESPN, Antetokounmpo reiterated that he would love to win a championship with the Bucks but remained noncommittal about his future.
“Right now, at this moment, I’m in Milwaukee,” he said. “I don’t know if I’ll leave — it’s not up to me. If it was up to me, maybe I already would have left. In a year and a half, when I become a free agent at 32, it will be up to me.”
The Heat, Warriors, Timberwolves, Lakers, possibly the Knicks and potentially others are expected to pursue a trade for Antetokounmpo this summer if he’s made available.
And there’s a new wild card: An asset-rich team that didn’t pursue him before the trade deadline might rethink that if it’s ousted before the NBA Finals. That group includes Houston, San Antonio, Cleveland and Detroit.
Nearly all of those teams can offer more picks this summer than they could before the trade deadline, but there’s a catch with the Heat:
Whereas Minnesota, New York and the Lakers can all offer to draft a player for the Bucks in June — and trade the Bucks a 2033 first-rounder that isn’t yet available for any team to trade until after June’s draft — the Heat’s ability to add to its February offer is more convoluted because of NBA rules.
Like those other teams, the Heat can pick a player for the Bucks with its own draft pick in June and send that player to Milwaukee. Miami also can offer two future first-round picks, just as it could do when the teams negotiated in early February.
And the Heat has crafted a way to enhance any trade offer for Antetokounmpo or any superstar this summer. The path involves invoking the term “next available first-round pick” in trade discussions, a framework permitted by the NBA.
If the Heat makes the playoffs next season, then Miami’s 2027 pick would convey to Charlotte and the Heat — after June’s draft -- could trade its first-round picks in 2029, 2031 and 2033 as well as the player it drafts in the first round this year, if the Heat was willing to trade all of those assets and if the Bucks were interested in taking them. That’s four potential first-round picks for Milwaukee from Miami.
Because picks more than seven years out cannot be conveyed in trades, the Heat could offer three first-round picks and a second-rounder (instead of four first-round picks) if the lottery-protected first-round pick that Miami owes Charlotte doesn’t convey until 2028.
The NBA allows language such as “next available pick” or “all future available first-round picks” in making a trade.
That means Miami hypothetically could offer the Bucks the player that Miami drafts in June as well as all future tradeable first-round picks (which would be three, beyond 2026, if Miami makes the playoffs next season and two otherwise).
The only thing that teams cannot offer, under any circumstances, this summer is a 2034 first-round pick, because that’s eight years out.
The Heat’s potential offer could look much better in June than it did in January if Tyler Herro and Kel’el Ware — the centerpieces of the Heat’s proposal — play very well during the next two months.
The Lakers have positioned themselves to bid for Antetokounmpo this summer. Before this month’s trade deadline, Los Angeles could trade only its 2031 first-round pick.
But this summer, the Lakers could trade three first-rounders, in 2026, 2031 and 2033. Los Angeles could put together a package around those three picks, perhaps a sign-and-trade involving impending unrestricted free agent Austin Reeves and other players.
Including LeBron James in a sign-and-trade with Cleveland — his widely speculated but uncorroborated preference — would be difficult, if not impossible, because of the Cavs’ high payroll and challenges created by the first and second aprons.
The Rockets and Spurs, who reportedly showed no interest in Antetokounmp before the trade deadline, could offer very appealing packages if they change their mind.
That’s the type of competition that the Heat could be facing this summer.
The variable is whether the Bucks will get a high enough pick in June’s draft to convince Antetokounmpo to stick around.
Per ESPN, the Bucks are still operating with the belief that Antetokounmpo could be swayed to stay. They began their umpteenth attempt to win him over by signing skilled scorer Cam Thomas on the buyout market.
Antetokounmpo – who has played in just 30 games this season -- will turn 32 on Dec. 4. Though durability has become a concern, he’s still at the top of his game, averaging 28 points and 10 rebounds.
Antetokounmpo’s messaging remains mixed. On one hand, he never demanded the Bucks trade him. On the other hand, his camp clearly told the Bucks that he wanted to move on, ESPN’s Shams Charania has consistently reported.
Seven minutes after the trade deadline passed, Antetokounmpo posted an image from “The Wolf of Wall Street,” in which Leonardo DiCaprio’s character, under investigation for financial fraud as the CEO of his firm, told his employees, “I’m not [expletive] leaving.”
Postscript: DiCaprio’s character, Jordan Belfort, ultimately left his company (Stratton Oakmont), after it was forced to shut down by federal authorities.
