Numbers say what is and isn’t behind the Heat’s rough stretch?
While Tyler Herro’s return has coincided with the Miami Heat’s worst stretch of the season, the numbers say that’s just an unfortunate coincidence for Herro and the Heat.
Yes, the Heat was an impressive 11-6 when Herro made his season debut and returned to the starting lineup after missing the first 17 games of the regular season because of offseason left ankle surgery. The Heat has since posted a 3-3 record in the games Herro has played in.
But in those six games, the Heat has actually outscored opponents by 3.6 points per 100 possessions in the 191 minutes that Herro has been on the court. In fact, in Tuesday’s 117-108 loss to the Orlando Magic at Kia Center, the Heat outscored the Magic by 8.1 points per 100 possessions in Herro’s minutes and was outscored by the Magic by 50 points per 100 possessions in the 14 minutes he was on the bench.
In other words, the Heat’s problems during this stretch of four consecutive losses and five losses in the past six games run deeper than Herro’s return. But the reintegration process of a high-usage player such as Herro to a Heat team using a completely new offense running the fewest pick-and-rolls in the league this season will take time.
“It was my sixth game tonight,” Herro said following Tuesday’s NBA Cup loss to the Magic in Orlando, with the Heat now in the middle of a rare in-season break before resuming its schedule on Monday against the Raptors in Miami. “So just coming out here, it’s going to be a work in progress.
“I just got to continue to fight. We all are trying and we want to win obviously, and that’s what matters. We’re all intentional and we just got to continue to work at it, continue to get better. I think this next couple days, get a little break and then get right back to it.”
So far, the microscope has been on the on-court partnership of Herro and Heat newcomer Norman Powell since Herro returned.
Powell, who led the Heat in scoring (25.4 points per game on 50% shooting from the field and 46.4% shooting on threes) and usage rate (27.1%) during the first 17 games of the season while Herro was out, has seen his efficiency dip recently. Powell has averaged 23.3 points per game while shooting 45.1% from the field and just 7 of 22 (31.9%) from three-point range during the Heat’s current four-game losing skid.
But the minutes have been very positive while Herro and Powell have shared the court, as the Heat has outscored opponents by a dominant 13 points per 100 possessions in the 72 minutes this duo has played together so far this season.
“That’ll be fine,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of the Herro-Powell pairing. “We’ll have that opportunity in games to work on that. They’ve been working on it behind the scenes. It’s only [72] minutes. So that’ll continue to get better. If you have the skill level that they have, that they both can shoot the basketball, they both can put the ball on the floor, and they both want to make it work, based on my experience, those things work out. And we need it. We need it, quite frankly. As we move forward, we need our firepower.”
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One of the biggest issues for the Heat during this rough patch has actually been its bench.
During this 1-5 stretch, the Heat’s reserves have combined to be outscored by an ugly 14.6 points per 100 possessions for the second worst such mark in the league during this span — ahead of only the 3-19 Washington Wizards.
This is very different from the Heat’s hot start to the season, when Miami’s bench looked like one of the best units in the league. The Heat’s reserves, led by the resurgence of Jaime Jaquez Jr., combined to outscore opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions during the team’s 14-7 start to the season.
“I think it’s just going to continue to take time,” Powell said of building chemistry throughout the rotation, with so many players in and out of the lineup recently because of injuries. “When guys are in and out of the lineup, it’s always tough to establish a certain playing style. And then there’s always an adjustment period. It’s going to take maybe another four or five games for us to build that chemistry up again.”
Why is the Heat’s bench now losing its minutes after beginning the season as such a positive? It’s hard to pinpoint the exact reason, but Herro’s return has led to Spoelstra changing some of the bench lineups throughout the game.
The bottom line is change happens when a player such as Herro returns to the rotation, but the Heat’s issues during this 1-5 stretch appear to be bigger than just reintegrating Herro. Whether it’s shooting percentages or players regressing to the mean after a hot start to the season, opponents adjusting to the Heat’s revamped up-tempo style of play or something else, coaches and players will spend the coming days trying to figure out solutions before the schedule resumes Monday against the Raptors at Kaseya Center.
“We get a couple days off, get some rest, get back in the gym, work on some things and then regroup,” Herro said, with the Heat returning to practice on Friday after taking Wednesday and Thursday off during this long in-season break. “Obviously, this is a tough stretch right now. But we continue to bounce back, fight like we always do.”
