Duncan Robinson opting to become free agent this summer. But could he still return to Heat?
Miami Heat three-point shooting forward Duncan Robinson has opted to become a free agent this offseason.
With a 5 p.m. deadline on Sunday to decide on the early-termination option in his contract for next season, Robinson has decided to exercise that option to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, a league source confirmed to the Miami Herald.
Robinson’s other option was to allow Sunday’s deadline to pass without exercising his early-termination option, which would have kept him on the Heat’s books and guaranteed $9.9 million of his $19.9 million salary for next season — a decision that likely would have led to the Heat waiving him or trading him before his full $19.9 million salary became guaranteed on July 8 to get under the luxury-tax line. But Robinson turned down that guaranteed money to hit free agency.
While Robinson could begin talking about a new deal with other teams when free agency opens around the league Monday at 6 p.m., returning to the Heat on a new contract also remains a possibility, according to a league source. Since the Heat has Robinson’s Bird rights, it can exceed the salary cap to re-sign him up to his maximum salary despite holding no salary-cap space.
One option for the Heat to retain Robinson is a contract that would pay him the $9.9 million he would have been guaranteed for next season with additional season of guaranteed money tacked on. For example, a $33 million contract over three years that would give Robinson a significant amount of guaranteed money while also keeping his cap hit for this upcoming season at $9.9 million to keep the Heat under the luxury-tax threshold.
Robinson could also be used in a sign-and-trade deal if he strikes a deal elsewhere and needs the Heat to help facilitate such an agreement. This could, in theory, net the Heat a few assets while also possibly getting Robinson’s salary completely off its books without getting any salary in return by dealing him into another team’s mid-level or trade exception. Such a move involving Robinson is also on the table, according to a league source.
Robinson, 31, has developed into one of the Heat’s undrafted success stories. He joined the Heat after going undrafted out of Michigan in 2018, becoming the franchise leader for the most career three-pointers made by a Heat player.
Robinson has made 1,202 three-pointers while shooting an impressive 39.7 percent from behind the arc during his seven regular seasons with the Heat. He’s one of only nine NBA players who has made more than 1,000 threes while shooting better than 39 percent from three-point range since the 2018-19 season, along with Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, CJ McCollum, Paul George, Zach LaVine, Klay Thompson and Gary Trent Jr.
But Robinson’s role has diminished over the years. After starting in 209 of his 239 regular-season appearances over his first four NBA seasons with the Heat, he has started in 74 of his 184 regular-season appearances over the last three seasons.
Robinson averaged 11 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 39.3 percent on 6.5 three-point attempts per game last regular season.
The Heat’s current salary-cap breakdown includes 14 players on standard contracts with partially guaranteed or fully guaranteed salaries for next season: Bam Adebayo ($37.1 million), Tyler Herro ($31 million), Andrew Wiggins ($28.2 million), Terry Rozier ($24.9 million of $26.6 million salary currently guaranteed), Davion Mitchell (estimated $11.5 million), Kyle Anderson ($9.2 million), Haywood Highsmith ($5.6 million), Nikola Jovic ($4.4 million), Kel’el Ware ($4.4 million), Kevin Love ($4.2 million), Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($3.9 million), Kasparas Jakucionis ($3.7 million), Pelle Larsson ($978,000 of $2 million salary currently guaranteed) and Keshad Johnson ($2 million).
When including the full salaries for Rozier, Robinson, Larsson but not including cap holds, the Heat has about $176.3 million in salaries committed to 14 players for next season — one player away from the 15-man regular-season limit for an NBA standard roster. This includes the $2.5 million in “unlikely to be earned incentives” that raise Herro’s cap number for this upcoming season to $33.5 million.
With the projected salary cap for the 2025-26 season set at $154.6 million and the projected luxury tax set at $187.9 million, that means the Heat is about $11.6 million below the luxury-tax threshold after Robinson exercised the early-termination option in his contract for next season. The Heat also finds itself $19.6 million below the punitive first apron of $195.9 million and far from the dreaded second apron of $207.8 million.
The Heat still doesn’t have cap space, but it is now in position to use the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and/or the $5.1 million bi-annual exception to offer outside free agents without crossing the first apron. This is important because using either the non-taxpayer midlevel exception or the bi-annual exception would hard cap the Heat at the first apron of $195.9 million.
The issue with using the full $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception is the Heat is only $11.6 million away from the luxury-tax line, which Miami is expected to try to avoid this upcoming season after finishing each of the last two seasons as a luxury tax team. Why? In order to avoid the onerous repeater tax that’s triggered when a team crosses the luxury tax threshold in four straight seasons or four times during a five-season period.
So, the Heat could choose to use the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception to add an outside free agent instead of the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and/or the $5.1 million bi-annual exception. The benefit in doing this is that using the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception would keep the Heat out of the luxury tax and only hard cap the Heat at the second apron.
The list of players from the Heat’s season-ending roster who are set to become free agents this summer includes Robinson (unrestricted free agent), guard Josh Christopher (unrestricted free agent), guard Alec Burks (unrestricted free agent), guard Dru Smith (restricted free agent) and guard Isaiah Stevens (unrestricted free agent).
NBA teams were allowed to begin negotiating with their own impending free agents this past Monday after the NBA Finals ended. But free agents can’t begin negotiating with outside teams until this upcoming Monday at 6 p.m.
This story was originally published June 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM.
