A questionable decision by Herro and a costly loss. What it all means for Heat in play-in race
This season isn’t over yet, but it appears the Miami Heat will come away from it wondering what could have been.
What if Jimmy Butler didn’t force his way out of Miami? What if the Heat hadn’t blown a a double-digit lead in an NBA-high 22 losses this season? What if the Heat wasn’t a dismal 8-16 in games decided by five points or less after posting a 65-50 record in such games during the previous five seasons?
Following Wednesday night’s costly 119-111 loss to the Chicago Bulls at United Center, the Heat was again left with that feeling after Heat guard Tyler Herro opted for an open three-pointer instead of an easy transition layup with the Bulls ahead by five points and just more than 40 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
“Tyler has a fearlessness that you can’t take for granted,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after the loss, which sunk Miami deeper into 10th place in the Eastern Conference in the final days of the regular season. “He’s hit so many big shots. He wants to take on anything to help you win and he’s had a lot of big plays offensively, especially in fourth quarters in his time with us.”
But Spoelstra couldn’t fully defend Herro’s decision to take the three over the easy fast-break layup in that situation.
After Herro made a three-pointer to cut the Heat’s deficit to five points with 54.3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, Herro stole the ball from Bulls guard Coby White near midcourt on the next possession. As Herro came away with the ball in the open court for an opportunity to cut the deficit to three points and make it a one-possession game on an easy transition layup with no Bulls defenders between him and the basket, he instead picked up his dribble and opted for a 27-foot pull-up three that rimmed out with 41.6 seconds left.
“It’s my job now to also coach him in situational basketball,” Spoelstra continued, with just two games left on the Heat’s regular-season schedule ahead of Friday’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans (8 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Sun). “It was still a two-possession game and regardless we were going to have to get a stop. It was set up to be probably a decent two-for-one opportunity. But he’s got a kill mentality. That wasn’t a kill opportunity at that point. That’s why I love Tyler for his fearlessness, but I also love him for his coachability, and it’s my responsibility as the head coach to coach him through situations like this.”
Herro, who finished with a game-high 30 points on 13-of-26 shooting from the field, admitted he should have gone for the sure-fire layup to trim the deficit to three.
“I was feeling that shot. It’s as simple as that,” Herro said of his decision to go for the three-pointer. “It’s the shot I was feeling. Looking back at it now, obviously, after missing the shot, I should have laid the ball up. But at the end of the day, I believe that I can make that shot. I believe in myself and I’m going to live and die by that.”
Herro’s Heat co-star Bam Adebayo added: “To me, that’s one of the best looks he got all night. So you live with that because 100%, y’all wouldn’t be talking about it if he made it.”
Whether the Heat would have won if Herro would have gone for the easy two-pointer instead of the three will never be known, but there was certainly regret and frustration following Wednesday’s loss.
That’s because the Heat had an opportunity to host one play-in tournament game and carve out an easier play-in tournament path with a win in Chicago. Instead, the Heat lost to the Bulls and appears to be on an inevitable path to enter the play-in tourney as the Eastern Conference’s 10th-place team.
The 10th-place Heat (36-44) entered Thursday one game behind the ninth-place Chicago Bulls (37-43) and 1.5 games behind the eighth-place Atlanta Hawks (37-42). Meanwhile, the Magic (40-40) clinched seventh-place in the Eastern Conference with its win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday.
While the Heat can still finish anywhere between eighth place and 10th place in the East, it’s going to need a lot of help to move out of 10th place in the final days of the regular season.
With the Bulls now having one fewer loss than the Heat and also holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami after sweeping the three-game regular-season series, the Heat needs to win its final two regular-season games (at Pelicans and vs. Washington Wizards) and also have the Bulls lose their final two regular-season games (vs. Wizards and at Philadelphia 76ers) to pass Chicago in the standings.
With the Hawks (37-42) now having two fewer losses than the Heat but Miami holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta by virtue of a better division record, the Heat needs to win its final two regular-season games and also have the Hawks lose two of their final three regular-season games (at Brooklyn Nets, at 76ers and vs. Magic) to pass Atlanta in the standings.
If the Heat, Bulls and Hawks all finish with 44 losses, the Heat would still enter the play-in tournament in 10th place in the East because it holds the worst head-to-head record among the three teams at 2-5. In this scenario, the Bulls would close in seventh place and the Hawks would come in eighth place.
“This was a big game and we lost,” Heat forward Andrew Wiggins said after Wednesday’s loss to the Bulls. “But we just got to stay with it, believe in ourselves. The journey is going to be a little harder, but it’s nothing that we can’t handle.”
The East’s play-in game between the No. 7 Magic and No. 8 team will be played on Tuesday at a time still to be determined and aired on TNT. The winner of this matchup, which will be hosted by the seventh-place Magic, earns the conference’s seventh playoff seed.
The East’s play-in game between the No. 9 team and No. 10 team will be played on Wednesday at a time still to be determined and aired on ESPN. The loser of this matchup is eliminated from playoff contention.
Then the East’s play-in game between the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game and the winner of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 game will be played on Friday, April 18 and aired on TNT. The winner of this matchup, which will be hosted by the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game, earns the conference’s eighth playoff seed.
The most likely outcome, at this point, is for the Heat to return to Chicago to face the Bulls on Wednesday in an elimination play-in game between the East’s ninth-place team and 10th-place team. The Bulls swept their three-game regular-season series with the Heat this season.
“Of course,” Spoelstra said when asked whether he’s confident the Heat could solve the Bulls in a potential play-in matchup next week. “We’re competitors. I’ll have a better answer if and when we get to that point. But our focus will be on finishing out the season strong. And then we’re going to do whatever we need to do to seize that opportunity to get in the playoffs.”
But the Heat has already missed plenty of opportunities this season, including Wednesday’s regrettable effort and late-game shot selection.
“We all burned the boats, both teams, focusing on this game,” Spoelstra said following Wednesday’s loss. “... Our mindset was to get this game and they played better than we did. They deserved it and that’s the biggest takeaway from it.”
