From personnel needs to Ware to Wiggins, what Heat data reveals and what now must be done
The eye test likely was enough to diagnose what this Heat team, at 37-45, is lacking heading into a dreary 9-10 elimination play-in game at Chicago on Wednesday and an offseason that could begin as early as Thursday.
But with the Heat’s worst regular-season since 2014-15 now complete, there’s now also plenty of data to make conclusions about this roster moving forward.
Five takeaways which must be considered this offseason:
▪ The Heat needs to somehow add not only an elite scorer, but a supreme shot-creator, someone who can draw fouls, as well as finding a better floor general to rescue a team that was the league’s worst late in close games.
During the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer (the NBA’s definition of clutch), the Heat was outscored by 61 points (only Toronto and Utah were worse); shot 39.9% from the field (fifth worst) and shot a dreadful 25.6 percent on threes (40 for 156; only Orlando was worse).
No wonder the Heat was 14-28 in those games.
And don’t understate this: With Jimmy Butler disengaged or suspended from late December until his trade, Miami finished last in the league in free-throw attempts per 48 minutes late in close games.
Miami got to the line just 23.8 times per 100 possessions during clutch time, by far the worst in the league and well below that of good teams like Cleveland (47.8). During the prime Butler years, Miami was middle of the pack in this metric.
While that problem was new, the poor clutch three-point shooting was nothing new. Miami shot 30.6% and 31.9% on clutch threes the previous two seasons.
Among the highest-volume three-point shooters in the clutch this year, the worst percentages were by four All-Stars: Tyler Herro (12 for 63, 19%), Jayson Tatum (6 for 31, 19.4%), Devin Booker (5 for 27, 18.5%) and Damian Lillard (4 for 27, 14.8%).
Beyond Herro, Duncan Robinson was 3 for 15 on clutch threes, Terry Rozier 6 for 20 and Bam Adebayo 3 for 12. Conversely, Cavs and ex-Heat guard Max Strus was one of the league’s best clutch three-point shooters this season (10 for 20).
Two-point efficiency also must be far better late in close games; if you’re getting shots around the basket, you have a better chance to draw fouls. Butler shot 11 for 19 on clutch twos before the trade this season. Wiggins was just 9 for 23 on clutch twos this season.
▪ The Adebayo/Kel’el Ware combo worked offensively, answering the most important question about that pairing. That must be Miami’s starting power rotation moving forward.
Miami shot 49.1% when they were on the floor together, compared with 46.5 overall.
The Heat shot 40.9% on threes when they played together, compared with 37.3 overall.
Miami averaged more points per 100 possessions with its super sized frontcourt (113.1 to 112.4 otherwise).
When Adebayo and Ware played together, the Heat outscored teams by 44 points and five-man lineups with that duo had the fourth-best shooting percentage and the best three-point shooting percentage among any two-man Heat combo that played at least 40 games.
Credit goes not only to Adebayo (who ended the season making 50 of his 115 threes, 43.5%, since late January), but also to Ware, who showed a feathery touch at times besides making himself a dangerous lob threat, and Herro, among others.
Imagine what the Adebayo/Ware combination could be offensively if the Heat had a frontline natural point guard or another more consistent floor-spacer to supplement Herro.
Incidentally, Ware finished 19th in blocks per 36 minutes (1.8) and finished 17th in rebounds per 36 minutes at 12.0, sandwiched between a three-time MVP (Nikola Jokic) and a four-time Defensive Player of the Year (Rudy Gobert). Adebayo was 32nd in that rebounds-per-36 category at 10.1.
▪ Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell and Haywood Highsmith developed into an effective bench core, and they — with Nikola Jovic — should be the nucleus of the bench next season (ideally with an All-Star added to the starting group).
You know what five-man lineup had the best plus/minus on the team this season (including the Butler groups)?
A quintet of Anderson, Mitchell, Highsmith, Adebayo and Herro, albeit in a small sample size. Miami outscored teams by 37 points in their 34 minutes, shooting 67% and 11 for 16 on threes.
Mitchell was a godsend — credit to Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg for flipping P.J. Tucker for Mitchell — and not only set his career mark for three-point shooting since the trade (44.7% compared with 34.4 in his career) but also improved his assist-to-turnover ratio (5.3 to 1.7), while defending with zeal.
The Heat is expected to make a qualifying offer to Mitchell to make him a restricted (rather than unrestricted) free agent. But even if another team offers him a second year at money that isn’t astronomical, a strong case could be made for the Heat to match.
Miami already projects to have only $28 million or so in 2026 cap space, if it keeps 2026 restricted free agent Jovic and its two first-round picks in the next two years and doesn’t pick up Anderson’s 2026-27 team option.
But Miami could push that total to $58 million by dealing Wiggins for shorter contracts. In that case, fitting in Mitchell at a modest number could still leave Miami with close to max space should the Heat go the space route that summer, which is highly questionable anyway.
▪ Erik Spoelstra stuck too long this year with Rozier, apparently convinced he couldn’t be as bad as he showed, and didn’t use Alec Burks enough.
With Burks on the floor, Miami outscored teams by 111 points, best on the team.
With Rozier, Miami was outscored by 141; only Jaquez Jr. (minus-152) was worse.
Burks allowed the player he was guarding to shoot 43.9%, compared to the 45.6 those players shot overall. Rozier permitted the player he was defending to shoot 48.8%, compared to the 45.5 they shot overall.
Ultimately, there was no justification for Rozier finishing fifth on the team in minutes (1,658) and Burks 10th (863).
Burks shot 42.5% on threes, second best on the team behind Mitchell.
Rozier shot 29.5% on threes, which was tied with Franz Wagner for second worst among 174 qualifiers, ahead of only Spurs rookie defensive wizard Stephon Castle (28.5).
As Heat TV announcer Eric Reid said Sunday, it’s difficult to think of a good player who had the sudden in-his-prime regression to the extent Rozier did. Rozier has one season left on his deal at $26.7 million; Burks will be a free agent.
▪ Besides needing to get to the line more, the Heat must either finish more efficiently in the basket area or find players that do.
Even with Ware (128) and Adebayo (125) combining for 253 dunks, Miami made the third-fewest shots within five feet of the basket and shot just 62.5% on those shots (22nd in the league).
Among more than 75 NBA point guards, only eight shot worse within five feet of the basket than Rozier, who finished at 55.2% (91 for 165).
Among more than 100 qualifying NBA forwards, only Jerami Grant and Patrick Williams shot worse inside five feet this season than Wiggins did for the Heat (38 for 75, 50.7%), after he shot a mediocre 57.6% from that distance for Golden State earlier this season.
Conversely, within five feet this season, Butler shot 68.1% for Miami and 65% for the Warriors. Butler made 194 shots inside five feet compared to Wiggins’ 136.
Pelle Larrson (59.6%), Jaquez (59.1%) and Burks (9 for 24, 37.5%) all were below average shooting inside five feet.
Getting to the line is the other issue; Miami attempted the fourth fewest free throws per game, on average.
The move from Butler to Wiggins has been damaging in that regard. Wiggins played 96 more minutes than Butler this season but attempted far fewer free throws (257 to Butler’s 392) and shot them much worse (76.3% to Butler’s 84.2%).
Wiggins, a skilled scorer, doesn’t fit what the Heat ideally needs: someone who can finish at the basket, draw fouls, get Miami into offense and take over games late. The view here is Miami should offer Wiggins, multiple first-round picks and two of its first- or second- or third-year players (not Ware) for an All-Star if one becomes available.
This story was originally published April 14, 2025 at 2:42 PM.
