Where Heat stands entering offseason: tax, draft pick, free agency, exceptions, more
The Heat will enter a critical offseason with one draft pick, 12 players under contract, wiggle room under the punitive first apron and a mission to augment a roster that produced its worst record in 11 years and delivered the most dismal playoff performance in NBA history.
“There are going to be a lot of changes this summer, knowing how the guy with the silver hair works,” Bam Adebayo said of team president Pat Riley. “Be prepared for that.”
After being outscored by a record 122 points in Cleveland’s first-round sweep, a look at where Miami stands on several fronts heading into the offseason:
▪ Draft picks: The Heat will have one in June — Golden State’s pick at No. 20, a result of the Jimmy Butler trade. The Heat’s own first-round pick (15th) will go to Oklahoma City as the final fulfillment of its acquisition of Butler in a sign-and-trade with Philadelphia in 2019.
The Heat will have its own first-round pick in 2026. Charlotte gets Miami’s first-round pick in 2027 if the Heat makes the playoffs in 2026-27. Otherwise, the Hornets would get the Heat’s first-round pick in 2028 to complete the Terry Rozier trade.
▪ Tradeable first-round picks: Because teams cannot trade first-round picks in consecutive years (if it leaves them without a first-round pick), that means Miami cannot dangle any more of its first-rounders this decade.
But even though the Heat technically has two tradeable first-round picks at the moment (Golden State’s in 2025 and Miami’s in 2030 or 2031), it essentially will enter the June 25-26 NBA Draft with what amounts to three tradeable firsts: the 2025 pick and picks in 2030 and 2032.
But here’s the catch: the 2032 pick cannot be traded until after draft night because teams cannot trade first-rounders more than seven years out.
Drafting a player on behalf of another team is a legal circumvention of the rule that prevents teams from being left without a first-round pick in consecutive years. So at No. 20, Miami could pick a player on behalf of another team as part of a pre-arranged trade, and then complete the trade the day after the draft, allowing it to send that rookie draft pick and Heat first-round picks in 2030 and 2032 to that team.
Miami also can offer pick swaps in 2026 and either 2027 or 2028 (whichever of those two years that Charlotte doesn’t get Miami’s first-rounder), plus 2029 and 2031.
▪ The Davion Mitchell decision: It’s likely Miami will extend a qualifying offer to make him a restricted (as opposed to an unrestricted) free agent. The issue is whether the Heat would exercise its right to match virtually any realistic multiyear outside offers.
If Miami makes Mitchell a qualifying offer to retain a right to match outside offers, he would be on the Heat’s cap for $8.7 million until he signs somewhere. If he re-signs with Miami, his actual salary would replace that $8.7 million cap hold.
▪ The Duncan Robinson decision: Miami could shave its payroll by $10 million if it releases Robinson by July 8, but that would eliminate the ability to use his contract as a facilitator in a trade. Only $9.9 million of Robinson’s $19.8 million salary is guaranteed in 2025-26.
Paying Robinson $9.9 million simply to leave would be unpleasant; the Heat presumably would far prefer to offload his $19.9 million salary in a trade. But if Miami cannot trade Robinson, then the decision about whether to cut him should come down to this:
Would clearing out that money allow Miami to sign a free agent or trade for a player it covets (using the midlevel exception or a trade exception) that it otherwise couldn’t use if it wants to avoid another year as a tax team?
▪ Cap space/luxury tax considerations: Not counting Mitchell or Keshad Johnson (who has a team option) or Alec Burks (Miami’s only unrestricted free agent), the Heat has $176.2 million committed to 12 players for 2025-26, including the $19.9 million for Robinson.
That’s about $11 million below the projected $187.9 luxury tax threshold and well below the projected $195.9 million first apron and $207.8 million second apron. But it’s well above the projected $154.6 million salary cap.
And that $176.2 million in 2025-26 commitments doesn’t include the cap hold for Mitchell, Golden State’s first-round pick and rookie forward Keshad Johnson’s $1.9 million team option. If only Mitchell and the first-round pick are included, Miami would be close to the tax line and $11 million below the first apron.
Cutting Robinson would create an additional $10 million in space.
▪ Other avenues to improve the team besides trades and the draft process: Miami has five exceptions, but if the team remains up against the luxury tax line, it might not use any of them, because using any hard caps the Heat at the first apron. The exceptions cannot be combined.
Available are a $14.1 million midlevel exception if Miami sheds payroll (Miami currently is positioned to use only $5.6 million of that without being hard capped) and a $5.1 million bi-annual exception.
The Heat’s three trade exceptions are $7.3 million (from the Kyle Anderson trade; expires next Feb. 6); $3.1 million (for the Josh Richardson trade in February; also expires next Feb. 6); and $2.1 million (from the Thomas Bryant deal with Indiana; that expires Dec. 15).
▪ Tyler Herro’s potential extension: The All-Star guard becomes eligible for a max extension on Oct. 1.
Herro already is locked into salaries of $31 million next season and $33 million in 2026-27, so any extension would not affect Heat cap space either of the next two offseasons.
The Heat could offer Herro a three-year, $150 million as early as Oct. 1, with a salary of $46 million in 2027-28 and $50 million and $54 million the following two seasons. The deadline for such an extension is Oct. 20.
If the Heat or Herro wait until the 2026 offseason to extend him, he would be eligible for a four-year, $207 million extension through 2030-31.
Nikola Jovic also is extension-eligible; he is set to be a restricted free agent in 2026-27.
This story was originally published April 29, 2025 at 1:44 PM.
