There’s still plenty on line for struggling Heat in final weeks of season. Also, Wiggins still out
The Miami Heat is in the middle of one of its worst stretches in more than a decade, but there’s still plenty on the line for the Heat in the coming weeks.
That’s because whether or not the Heat makes the playoffs this season will have a big impact on what happens to its draft picks this year and in the coming years.
Despite entering Wednesday night’s matchup against the Detroit Pistons at Kaseya Center on its first eight-game skid since March 2008, the Heat is still on track to have an opportunity to qualify for the playoffs through the NBA’s play-in tournament.
▪ If the Heat advances to the playoffs this season, its 2025 first-round pick would go to the Oklahoma City Thunder — a lottery-protected selection first sent out by Miami in the 2019 trade to acquire Jimmy Butler. While the Heat’s first-round pick this year would belong to the Thunder in this scenario, Miami would still have the Golden State Warriors’ 2025 first-round selection (as long as it’s not a top-10 pick) that it received as part of the return for Butler in February.
Also in this scenario, the first-round pick that the Heat dealt to the Charlotte Hornets to acquire Terry Rozier midway through last season would still be a lottery-protected 2027 first-round selection.
▪ If the Heat misses the playoffs this season, it would keep its 2025 first-round pick (currently slotted to be the No. 9 overall pick, but would depend on the draft lottery) since the selection is lottery-protected along with still getting the Warriors’ top-10 protected 2025 first-round pick (currently slotted to be the No. 22 overall pick). That would give the Heat two first-round picks this year.
But the downside is the Heat would then owe a completely unprotected 2026 first-round selection to the Thunder and a completely unprotected 2028 first-round pick to the Hornets. That means wherever the Heat’s picks land those years — even potentially the No. 1 overall selection — those picks would go to those teams.
Why?
The Heat’s 2025 first-round selection owed to the Thunder is lottery-protected, but becomes an unprotected 2026 pick if it’s not conveyed in 2025.
The Heat’s 2027 first-round pick owed to the Hornets is lottery-protected, but becomes an unprotected 2028 pick if it’s not conveyed in 2027.
With NBA rules preventing teams from trading future first-round picks in consecutive years, the unprotected 2026 first-round pick that would be owed to the Thunder if the Heat misses the playoffs this season would rule out its 2027 first-round selection from being conveyed to the Hornets. That means the Heat would then owe an unprotected 2028 first-round pick to the Hornets to fulfill its obligations from last season’s Rozier trade.
So which scenario is better for the Heat: Miss the playoffs this season, get two first-round picks this year but owe unprotected first-round picks in 2026 and 2028? Or make the playoffs this season, have only one first-round pick this year but avoid the risk of having two unprotected first-round selections going out in the coming years?
“I don’t know if there’s correct math to figure out what makes the most sense,” ESPN front office insider and former Nets executive Bobby Mark said to the Miami Herald.
Marks believes the preference should be for the Heat to make the playoffs this season in order to avoid having unprotected first-round picks going to other teams in two of the next four drafts.
“I would say, yes, the goal is to make the playoffs,” Marks said. “If you don’t make the playoffs, then you deal with what the consequences are. Did they think there was a chance that the 2026 and 2028 picks would be unprotected? No. You go through the risk and that’s probably the worst-case scenario. But like I said, the goal is to make the playoffs. If you don’t make the playoffs, you continue to try to put as much talent on the roster and you do have two first-round picks this year.”
But Marks doesn’t think it would be disastrous if the Heat’s two owed draft picks turn out to be unprotected. Marks wouldn’t be too concerned in this scenario because he doesn’t expect the Heat to begin a complete rebuild and become one of the worst teams in the NBA to have one of the top picks in the draft in 2026 or 2028.
“The only way it’s a disaster is if all of a sudden [Heat owner] Micky [Arison] comes in and says: ‘We’re going to fire Pat [Riley], Erik [Spoelstra] and Andy [Elisburg] and we’re going to hit the rebuild button,’” Marks said. “You would say, ‘Wait a minute, we don’t control our own picks.’ And he would say, ‘I don’t care, I want to rebuild.’ That’s the only way it’s a disaster.”
To Marks’ point, the Heat has been one of the most consistently competitive teams in the NBA during the past three decades. The Heat has finished with a losing record in just five of of the past 29 seasons.
“It’s just a matter of where you are as a roster,” Marks continued. “But I don’t see this team in the offseason, ‘Hey, we’re going to take a step back.’ Why?”
Of course, there’s always the risk of an injury to a key player derailing the Heat’s season to end up as one of the NBA’s worst teams in 2026 and/or 2028.
“If they’re the New Orleans of this year or the Memphis of last year, then that’s a disaster,” Marks said, referring to the injury issues that ruined those teams’ seasons.
In the end, Marks thinks the Heat has to “let nature take its course” and deal with the consequences of whatever its fate is.
“Listen, there’s risks for everything,” Marks emphasized. “Unprotected picks, there’s a huge risk there. But it is what it is. It’s out of your control now. The fortunate thing is that they’re in the Eastern Conference. If they were in the West, I would say Heat fans got to be prepared for next year — that they could be losing a really good pick. The East kind of keeps you around.”
WIGGINS AGAIN OUT
Heat starting forward Andrew Wiggins will miss his second straight game because of a left lower leg contusion on Wednesday against the Pistons. It marks the eighth game that Wiggins has missed because of injury or illness since being traded to the Heat on Feb. 6.
The Heat also remains without Josh Christopher (G League), Keshad Johnson (G League), Nikola Jovic (broken right hand), Dru Smith (left Achilles surgery) and Isaiah Stevens (G League) for Wednesday’s contest.
However, Heat guard Alec Burks is available to make his return on Wednesday after missing the previous seven games because of a back injury.
The only Pistons rotation player unavailable against the Heat is Jaden Ivey, who is out for the rest of the season after fracturing his fibula in January.
This story was originally published March 19, 2025 at 12:16 PM.
