NBA scouts assess Heat, the roster, the young players and players worth keeping
A third consecutive Heat season will include an appearance in the “we-would-rather-not-have-to-do-this” play-in round, leaving the organization at something of a crossroads. Miami isn’t good enough to contend for a title but isn’t bad enough to land a top-three pick.
To assess the state of the franchise, we solicited input from two veteran NBA scouts who have evaluated the team this season. They offered their thoughts on condition of anonymity, as the Heat enters the final week of the regular season battling to avoid the 10th seed, with games Monday at home against Philadelphia and a big one Wednesday in Chicago:
The Jimmy Butler trade
Scout 1: “Their backs were up against the wall, so they got what they could. I know they were dysfunctional with Jimmy but they overlooked what it would look like without him. What stands out to me is this has happened in Chicago, Minnesota, Philly and now Miami. When he leaves, teams don’t get to the playoffs or don’t get nearly as far. It’s funny how that happens. He’s a lot to handle but you can’t deny the impact. The dude knows how to play.”
Scout 2: “They had no leverage, so I don’t blame them for what they got. He put them in a compromising position. They had no leverage and they had to trade him. They got a starter with [Andrew] Wiggins, a quality backup with [Davion] Mitchell. [Kyle] Anderson is a smart player, can help you.”
On Wiggins
Scout 1, who has worked in an organization that had Wiggins at the same time of his employment: “Very talented player. But when he’s not motivated enough, you get the Wiggs who’s not aggressive enough, especially late in games. They probably should trade him. He’s more of a guy that blends in than a big difference-maker.”
Scout 2: “He’s a starter, a complementary piece, but you need at least two, maybe three, better guys than him on a really good team. The one year he was an All-Star, Golden State won the championship. He was playing well for Golden State this year. The Heat needs him to be the third guy, and he’s not some nights.”
Wiggins has been snake-bitten by injuries since the trade.
On Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro
Scout 1: “Sometimes people overvalue what they have. They’re both good players. Bam is very good. If you called 29 teams, most would be interested. But what they expect from his position, it’s too much to expect every night — consistent scoring with everything else he does.
“I would not trade Bam, but I would be open on everybody else. Nothing against Herro, but maybe you try to capitalize on his value.”
Scout 2: “Bam is somewhat [inconsistent] offensively; I wouldn’t actively look to move him, but I don’t think he should be untouchable. There would be a huge market for him.
“I would not look to trade Herro. He’s not the problem. They can’t score, and Herro gives you that. He’s not a No. 1 guy, but they need another two guys who can score, at least one. He’s not the problem.”
On Kel’el Ware
Scout 1: “I’m not sure how this is going to turn out with him. He’s always had flashes of great play; he did in college where I would watch in practice and he would dominate and then sometimes he doesn’t do it in games. I think [then-Indiana coach] Mike Woodson and the Heat have done a good job with him. You see the talent, the ability to change shots.
“But it can’t be as inconsistent. It could go either way, whether he becomes a good NBA starter or just a backup. It’s too soon to know. He’s still very young.
“Is he dominant enough to keep Bam at the four? He has to put on weight and be more consistent. But you can win with two bigs. OKC, Houston, Cleveland are doing it. It’s just too soon to know with him. You like the skill set.”
Scout 2: “He’s your modern day five, lob threat, can make a three, though I don’t know that you want him taking a lot [of threes]. That was a good pick. He’s a piece, unless he’s a piece for a trade. A lot of teams would jump at him for sure.”
On Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Scout 1: “I love Jovic’s versatility offensively, the passing. They’ve missed him. But I would have a harder time giving up Ware than Jovic because of Ware’s defensive ability.
“Jaquez, to me, can still be a good player [despite his sophomore slump]. I know he hasn’t hit threes. He reminds me of [Denver’s] Christian Braun. Obviously not as good a shooter but you get toughness and switchability.”
Scout 2: “I’m not a big Jaquez fan. He’s replaceable. I like [Pelle] Larsson better; he’s more athletic and a better shooter and similarly smart. I know Larsson’s foul prone, but there’s a little more upside with Larsson. They both play their butt off, but I think Larsson’s shooting is more promising and he’s a bit more skilled. Jovic is a nice piece, a rotation guy on a good team.”
On the overall state of the franchise
Scout 1: “That roster they had in the Finals lulled them into thinking they were good enough. That roster they took to the [2023 Finals] wasn’t very good [compared to other Finals teams]. It was mostly Jimmy” that led to that unlikely journey.
Scout 2: “Where they were awhile ago, fiddling with .500, is more representative than what their record is [now 35-43]. They shouldn’t be 10-under [as the Heat was last month]. Come on. They’ve got an All-Star level player in Herro, a former All-Star in Adebayo. Wiggins is solid. They have veteran guys who are solid complementary players, solid role players and Hall of Fame coach. That shouldn’t equal 10 under .500. They’re mediocre. But they shouldn’t be as bad as [they were until recently].
“Herro is not a No. 1. I don’t think Abebayo is a No. 2 scorer on a real contender. [Terry] Rozier has done a 180; I don’t understand that; maybe the legal stuff is on his mind. They need luck in the draft. They have some assets so it’s not [bleak].”
