As All-Star break comes to an end, Heat has some questions to answer
The Miami Heat has advanced to the Eastern Conference three times and NBA Finals two times in the past five seasons. But the Heat faces an uphill climb just to finish this regular season with a winning record.
In the wake of the Jimmy Butler drama and eventually trading Butler to the Golden State Warriors earlier this month, the Heat returns from the All-Star break with an underwhelming 25-28 record. The Heat took a season-long four-game losing skid into the break and is three games below the .500 mark for the first time this season.
“I don’t think people realize how hard it is to win a championship, and everything has to fall in line,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said during an interview on SiriusXM’s NBA Radio channel during All-Star Weekend. “But I think right now, we started the season with Jimmy saying we’re gonna try to win a championship. I think obviously if we’re calling a spade a spade, we’re not, we’re not contenders right now. But I think with the team that we’re trying to put together, we have a lot of young guys that can really help us win.”
The Heat reconvened for its first practice after the break Thursday in Miami. The Heat resumes its schedule Friday against the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena (7:30 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Sun) to begin a three-game trip.
Here are five of the most important questions surrounding the Heat that need answers during its final 29 regular-season games:
Can the Heat avoid a third straight appearance in the NBA’s play-in tournament?
The Heat enters Thursday in ninth place in the East standings.
With the NBA’s play-in tournament featuring the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference, the Heat is on track to again be required to qualify for the playoffs through the play-in tourney.
In each of the past two seasons, the Heat has advanced through the play-in tournament to make the playoffs as the East’s No. 8 seed.
But with the Heat entering Thursday three games behind the sixth-place Detroit Pistons, four games behind the fifth-place Milwaukee Bucks and five games behind the fourth-place Indiana Pacers, it still has an opportunity to finish with a top-six seed in the East to avoid another play-in tournament appearance this season.
The Heat has a few things working in its favor, as 18 of the final 29 regular-season games after the All-Star break will come at home. Miami has just 11 road games remaining on its regular-season schedule, and six of those 11 road games come against teams currently with losing records.
Also, the Heat enters Thursday with the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.com, based solely on the current combined winning percentage of teams left to play. Based on this measurement, the Heat’s remaining schedule is easier than the ones of the teams directly in front of it in the East standings — eighth-place Atlanta Hawks (eighth easiest), seventh-place Orlando Magic (seventh easiest), sixth-place Pistons (13th easiest), fifth-place Bucks (seventh hardest) and fourth-place Pacers (12th easiest).
Throw in all the home games that the Heat has left to play and its remaining schedule is among the biggest things working in its favor during the final two months of the regular season.
As for the Heat dropping further in the East standings and completely falling out of playoff contention, that’s unlikely. The Heat enters Thursday four games ahead of the 10th-place Chicago Bulls, and 5.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Philadelphia 76ers and 12th-place Brooklyn Nets.
Will the Heat’s new starting frontcourt of Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware produce positive results?
This isn’t only important down the stretch of this season, but it’s important to monitor for the future of the franchise. If Adebayo (a franchise cornerstone) and Ware (a standout rookie) can generate positive minutes together, they could be the Heat’s starting frontcourt beyond just this season.
Adebayo and Ware started together in the Heat’s frontcourt in 11 of the 12 games leading up to the All-Star break. The only game they didn’t start together during this stretch was when Adebayo missed last week’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks because of a knee contusion.
The Heat has a net rating of zero in the 190 minutes that Adebayo and Ware have played together during their 11 starts. The Heat’s offense has been bad with that double-big look on the court during this stretch (scoring 103.6 points per 100 possessions for an offensive rating that would rank last in the NBA among teams for the season), but the Heat’s defense has been elite during the Adebayo-Ware minutes over their 11 starts together (allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions for a defensive rating that would first in the NBA among teams for the season).
While the defense has been encouraging, the Heat needs to find solutions to its offensive issues with this duo on the court. Offensive spacing continues to be a concern with those lineups, as Adebayo and Ware both do most of their work inside the paint.
Can Herro continue to produce at an All-Star level even with the extra attention he’s going to get?
Herro earned his first NBA All-Star nod with the best sustained stretch of his career, entering the All-Star break averaging career highs in points (23.9 per game), rebounds (5.5) and assists (5.5) while shooting a career-best 46.5 percent from the field this season. He’s also shooting an efficient 38 percent on a career-high 9.7 three-point attempts per game and has missed just two of the Heat’s 53 games this season.
But Herro’s efficiency waned in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, with opponents sending extra defensive attention his way since they didn’t have Butler to worry about anymore. Herro averaged 23.1 points per game on 41.4 percent shooting from the field and 25.9 percent shooting from three-point range in his final eight games prior to the break.
Herro is better than ever and he’s more prepared than ever to deal with the various coverages that defenses will throw his way. But how Herro handles the extra defensive attention over the final few months of the season will show just how far he has come.
How do the Heat’s three trade additions fit?
The three players the Heat acquired in the Butler trade — Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins — were available for just three games before the All-Star break. And Wiggins was held out of one of those games because of a stomach illness. But there have already been glimpses of how they can each help.
Anderson, a versatile forward who can help initiate offense, had his best performance in a Heat uniform in the final game before the break. He recorded 15 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and two blocks in last week’s loss to the Mavericks. The expectation is Anderson will play off the bench for the Heat. But whether he gets consistent minutes remains to be seen.
Mitchell has started in each of his first three games with the Heat and he’s expected to continue to play as a starter after the break. The 6-foot guard is known for his suffocating on-ball defense and immediately becomes one of Miami’s top point-of-attack defenders. But Mitchell has also already shown the ability to run the offense and also knock down an open three-pointer.
Wiggins is the most accomplished player the Heat added in the Butler trade, as he was selected as an NBA All-Star for the 2021-22 season and also had an important role on the Warriors’ NBA championship team that season. Wiggins is a quality two-way player who’s best suited to be a complementary piece on a really good team. Wiggins will help the Heat’s defense as an effective wing defender, but it could take some time for him to find his place in Miami’s offense that’s built around Adebayo and Herro. Wiggins is expected to be a fixture in the Heat’s starting lineup for the rest of the season.
Which of the Heat’s young players will emerge during the latter stage of the season?
The Heat’s youth movement has been on display for most of the season and it will continue after the break.
The Heat’s last three first-round picks — Ware (20 years old), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (24) and Nikola Jovic (21) — are all consistent members of the rotation. Ware is a starter, and Jaquez and Jovic play off the bench.
The Heat’s second-round pick from the 2024 draft — Pelle Larsson (23) — has also been part of the rotation at times this season. But his playing time has fluctuated through his rookie year.
Keshad Johnson (23) is another rookie on the Heat’s 15-man standard roster. Most of Johnson’s playing time this season has come for the Heat’s G League affiliate, but he could get more NBA opportunities with the Heat in the coming weeks.
