The players Heat fans should be eyeing if team has one or two first-round picks in June
The Heat won’t know until mid-April at the earliest, and mid-May at the latest, whether it will have none, one or two picks in the first round of June’s NBA Draft.
But if the Heat ends up with one or two picks, they likely will be attractive ones — one in the lottery and another likely anywhere from 11 to the low 20s.
The Heat will keep its own pick (meaning a top-14 selection) only if it misses the playoffs; it will send the pick to Oklahoma City otherwise. In order to keep its 2025 first-round pick, Miami likely would need to be eliminated in the play-in round by Orlando, Atlanta or Chicago.
The Heat will receive Golden State’s first-round pick this year if it falls between 11 and 30. That seems increasingly likely, with the Warriors playing well recently and moving to sixth in the West, Phoenix struggling and Dallas’ chances diminishing amid Kyrie Irving’s season-ending ACL injury. Golden State’s pick likely will be in the 17-to-22 range if it makes the playoffs, and would be no worse than 14th otherwise.
If the Warriors pick falls in the top 10 this year and next year, Miami would get the Warriors’ first-rounder in 2027.
Should Miami end up with a pick or two, the encouraging news is this is considered one of the best drafts in years, headlined by consensus top pick forward Cooper Flagg of Duke, with Rutgers teammates and wing players Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, Baylor shooting guard VJ Edgecombe, Duke defensive-minded center Khaman Maluach and Illinois point guard Kasparas Jakucionis also considered top-half-of-the-lottery talents, with more than three months of evaluation still remaining.
The cautionary warning is the first round might have only three natural point guards currently playing college basketball, and all of them have been inconsistent shooting threes. And overall, many of the top-20-caliber players are unpolished prospects who will be drafted more for potential than production.
“NBA executives tell us they are excited about not only the star power at the top but also the overall depth,” ESPN NBA draft expert Jonathan Givony wrote recently, noting as many as nine international players could be drafted in the first round.
If you’re a Heat fan who doesn’t typically pay attention to college basketball until March, here’s a look at players to keep an eye on during conference tournaments and the NCAA Tournament, with all projected by ESPN in the 6 to 22 range at this early stage:
▪ Duke wing player Kon Knueppel : The 6-6 small forward/shooting guard is averaging 13.6 point and shooting 39.5 percent on threes in 30 starts. It remains to be seen whether he slips past the top 10.
“He’s an underrated passer, ESPN’s Jeremy Woo said. “Part of the appeal with Knueppel is his near-universal fit as an off-ball scorer.”
▪ Oklahoma point guard Jeremiah Fears: On the plus side, the 6-4 freshman is a skilled playmaker and scorer (15.9 points per game) who could be in play in the 10-to-15 range. But his three-point shooting isn’t very good (27.1 percent), his assist-to-turnover ratio is subpar (4.1 to 3.6), and his defense remains a work in progress.
“What makes Fears special,” Givony said, “is the way he handles the ball, gets to spots on the floor out of pick-and-rolls, passes, draws fouls and scores in a variety of ways.”
▪ Connecticut swingman Liam McNeeley: The 6-7 shooting guard/small forward missed five weeks with an ankle injury but is shooting 35.5 on threes and averaging 15.3 points and 6.3 rebounds.
“McNeeley’s size, shotmaking prowess, feel for the game and toughness are all important attributes that NBA teams value at the wing position,” Givony said.
▪ South Carolina power forward/center Collin Murray-Boyles: He’s Givony’s early pick to Miami at 18. Givony notes the 6-7 “Murray-Boyles’ feel for the game and defensive versatility have been on full display in a Draymond Green-type role for South Carolina.”
He’s averaging 16.8 points and shooting 59.4 percent from the field (best in the Southeastern Conference) but is just 7 for 27 on threes.
▪ Texas shooting guard Tre Johnson: The 6-6 Johnson, who’s just 18, leads the SEC in scoring at 20.6 per game and shoots 39 percent on threes. Though he’s 6-6, he isn’t very good defensively and his playmaking is pedestrian (2.6 assists, 1.8 turnovers).
“His efficiency struggles and lackluster defense makes him an acquired [taste] for some NBA teams, who have questions about his capacity for driving winning at the next level,” Givony said.
▪ BYU point guard/shooting guard Egor Demin: The negative is the 18-year-old’s shooting: 28.1 percent on threes and 42 percent overall. Demin, who was born in Russia and played scholastically in Spain, is averaging 10.7 points and 5.7 assists. The size (6-9) and ability to see the floor are tantalizing and Givony calls him the best passer in the draft.
▪ Maryland 6-10 center Derik Queen: There’s positional overlap with Kel’el Ware, and despite good numbers (15.9 points, 9.0 rebounds), there are concerns.
While Queen is one of “the most skilled, versatile big men in college basketball, a huge mismatch in the post, his apathy defensively, lack of shooting range and limited explosiveness have led to some uninspiring moments against lengthier opponents,” Givony said.
▪ Michigan center Danny Wolf, who’s averaging 12.4 points, a Big Ten-leading 9.7 rebounds but shooting just 29 for 86 on threes. Givony said he “might be college basketball’s most unique player, ranking as the best pick-and-roll player in this draft class while being measured at 7-0.”
▪ Georgia power forward Asa Newell: The 6-11 freshman from Destin is averaging 15.2 points and 6.8 rebounds and has a strong motor. But he’s shooting just 30.3 percent on threes.
▪ Others who could end up in the draft range of the Golden State pick: Illinois swingman Will Riley, Michigan State guard Jase Richardson, Florida center Alex Condon, Arkansas swing forward Aduo Thiero, Arizona swing forward Carter Bryant and North Carolina swing forward Drake Powell.
Two players in Europe, who are projected in that 10-to-20 range, are French center Joan Berenger (raw and there’s position overlap there with Bam Adebayo and Ware) and French point guard Nolan Traore, who’s also a developmental prospect.
Other projected first-rounders playing overseas include German swing guard Ben Saraf (a skilled 6-6 guard who has struggled with turnovers and three-pointers) and Real Madrid combo forward Hugo Gonzalez, an explosive player whose stock has risen.
This story was originally published March 5, 2025 at 9:22 AM.
