Heat could have two decent draft picks in June. What history says are odds of landing star
The Heat enters the final weeks of this difficult season with a good chance to snag Golden State’s 2025 first-round pick (it conveys to Miami this year if it’s between 11 and 30) and with a decent chance to keep its own first-round pick, which conveys to Oklahoma City this year only if Miami makes the playoffs.
At the moment, the Heat has the 10th worst record; if the Heat misses the playoffs, its draft position would be determined by the weighted lottery. Miami realistically can finish with no worse than the eighth worst record.
The team with the 10th worst record has a 2.5 percent chance to land the top pick (very likely Duke’s Cooper Flagg) and an 11.7 percent chance to land a top four pick. Oklahoma City gets Miami’s first-rounder in June if the Heat makes the playoffs this season or gets Miami’s 2026 first-round pick otherwise.
Golden State’s pick currently would be 21st or 22nd; it likely will be 17th to 22nd if the Warriors make the playoffs.
Considering the Heat has had difficulty landing a star in free agency or trades since acquiring Jimmy Butler in 2019, might Miami be able to find a face of its franchise, a perennial All Star, with two picks between 8 and 22?
History shows the Heat’s front office is capable of finding All Stars in the teens. But history also shows how difficult it is to find an All NBA type talent in that range.
The Miami Herald studied picks 8 through 22 in every NBA draft this century. Here’s what our analysis indicated about the historical chances of landing a franchise-altering player in that range:
▪ Teams that pick 8th, 9th and 10th have landed All Stars 11 times in 75 total picks, but not a single All Star has been selected eighth this century.
That group of 11: Amare Stoudemire, Joakim Noah, DeMar DeRozan, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Andre Drummond (all picked ninth) and Joe Johnson, Andrew Bynum, Caron Butler, Brook Lopez and Paul George (all picked 10th).
So there’s only a 14.6 chance, historically this century, that you’ll find an All Star with picks 8, 9 and 10 -- which are the highest the Heat can go barring extraordinary lottery luck, the type that Atlanta had last year when it had the 10th worst record and landed the top pick in the draft.
There have been just a handful of other excellent players picked 8th, 9th or 10th who were never All Stars or haven’t yet been All Stars: Jamal Crawford, Franz Wagner, Andre Iguodala and CJ McCollom.
But more of the players picked in those slots (8, 9, 10) have been busts (at least 14 of them) or merely average players than All Stars. So far, only about 25 of the 75 have become good NBA starters, but it’s too early to judge on some of them.
Regardless, the chance of finding a good starters with picks 8, 9 and 10 percent is, surprisingly, well under 50 percent. That’s sobering.
▪ Of the 225 players between 11 and 19 this century, only 21 have made an All Star game, equaling 9.3 percent. So there’s essentially a less than 1 in 10 chance that you’ll find an All Star in that draft range should Miami’s pick (and Golden State’s pick) end up there.
The Heat, coincidentally, picked two of those players - Bam Adebayo at 14 in 2017 and Tyler Herro at 13 in 2019.
Of those 21, 15 have been multi-time All Stars. Three of the single-time All Stars are long since retired: Jamaal Magliore, Danny Granger and Jeff Teague. Three have a chance to add to their single All Star appearance: Herro, Houston’s Alperen Sengun and Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams.
Of the 225 players drafted between 11 and 19 this century, only four have been first-team All NBA: Kawhi Leonard (selected 15th in 2011), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th in 2013), Devin Booker (13th in 2015) and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th in 2018).
So this in century, the odds of drafting a first team All NBA player in that draft range is 1.7 percent.
Six others have been second or third team All NBA: Zach Randolph (19th in 2011), Al Jefferson (15th in 2004), Klay Thompson (11th in 2011), Domantas Sabonis (11th in 2016), Donovan Mitchell (13th in 2017) and Tyrese Haliburton (12th in 2020).
So that’s 10 All NBA players (first, second or third team) in 225 drafted. The chance of finding an MVP caliber player with picks 11 to 19, this century, is less than 2 percent. And there’s this: Of the 225 players in the pool, fewer than 40 became good NBA starters, with the jury out on more recent picks.
That pool of players (11 to 19) produced more busts or major disappointments that starters on winning teams.
▪ If the Warriors make the playoffs but lose in the first round, the Heat will have a pick in the high teens or low 20s.
Keep this in mind: Among the 75 players drafted 20th, 21st or 22nd this century, only three became All Stars: Jameer Nelson, Tyrese Maxey and Rajon Rondo.
Other good players have been plucked at those spots -- Jalen Johnson, Caris LaVert, Brendan Haywood, among others. But the odds are you’re more likely to find a bust (Jeryl Sasser, Fab Melo, Victor Claver, Qyntel Woods) or a mediocre player than a good one in those spots.
The crapshoot nature of the draft is exemplified by what happened in the aftermath of the Heat’s selections of Adebayo and Herro.
After Donovan Mitchell and Adebayo went 13th and 14th to Utah and Miami in 2017, the next four picks were Justin Jackson, Justin Patton, DJ Wilson and TJ Leaf. All four are out of the league.
After the Heat took Herro 13th in 2019, the next three picks were Romeo Langford, Sekou Doumbouya and Chuma Okeke. The first two are out of the league and Okeke has played in seven NBA games this season.
The relatively low odds of finding a face of the franchise in the Heat’s likely draft spots are important to consider in case Miami has an opportunity, in late June, to trade either of those picks to another team as part of a package for a veteran All Star.
This story was originally published March 31, 2025 at 11:10 AM.
