Why doesn’t Heat reverse course, take Beal and end Butler saga? Consequences of each path
The Miami Heat’s refusal to take Phoenix Suns guard Bradley Beal’s contract has left Miami scrambling to find a deal for disgruntled star Jimmy Butler as Thursday’s 3 p.m. NBA trade deadline approaches.
The Suns remain the most aggressive Butler suitor and the best hope for Miami to offload Butler, in the wake of ESPN reports over the past day that Butler would accept an extension only from Phoenix and that the Golden State Warriors have stopped pursuing Butler “for now” after being informed that he will not sign an extension with them. (Meanwhile, The Athletic reported Monday that the Warriors are still firmly in the mix to Butler.)
But with the Suns the most aggressive suitor, that has led some fans to ask: Why don’t Heat executives simply take Beal (if he waives his no-trade clause to come to Miami) combined with Phoenix draft picks (the Suns have three tradable first-round picks) and simply move on with their lives?
This is where the F-word comes into play: Flexibility. Miami values that more than some other teams do, and acquiring Beal would severely limit that flexibility.
And that’s why the Suns continue efforts to try to find a third team willing to take Beal — with the hope that he would waive his no-trade clause — in order to facilitate a deal that would land Butler in Phoenix. Those attempts so far have been fruitless, while Butler remains sidelined as he serves his third team suspension in five weeks — one that will extend at least through Wednesday’s Heat game in Philadelphia.
Though the Heat has been unable to land several All Stars via trade or free agency in recent years — after snagging whales LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Butler in the previous decade — Miami will do nothing to preemptively curtail its chances of landing a star by taking on a particularly onerous contract for a non-All Star player.
Acquiring Beal, and the two years and $110 million remaining on his contract, would torpedo plans to add anyone else significant — or costly — to supplement Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro in the next 2.5 seasons.
Having cap space in the summer of 2026 is one reason to avoid taking Beal’s contract, but to say that’s the only reason would be a mischaracterization.
For the Heat, accepting Beal’s contract this week also would mean this: Because Beal has a no-trade clause, any trade for a disgruntled star — over the next 25 months — very likely would require Miami to include Adebayo or Herro in such a transaction.
Here are the two potential paths for Miami – one with Miami refusing to take Beal or any significant money that runs past next season (which is its current position), and one with Miami taking Beal or another big contract that extends into 2026-27:
▪ Scenario 1 (Miami refuses to take Beal or a contract past 2025-26):
In that scenario, if the Heat – during the next 13 months - adds no player whose contract runs beyond next season, Miami would have only $85 million committed for the 2026-27 season, well under the $170.6 million projected salary cap that season.
Even while factoring in modest salaries for Kel’el Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr., that would give Miami enough space to add a max-contract player in the summer of 2026, via free agency (most stars typically sign extensions now before hitting free agency) or via trade. Keep in mind that Nikola Jovic is eligible for restricted free agency that summer.
From a trade standpoint, consider this hypothetical: If a disgruntled star asks out, Miami could simply acquire that player into cap space without needing to send similar salary to the team trading that player. In that scenario, the Heat could offer draft picks and some combination of Ware, Jovic or Jaquez to the team looking to trade a disgruntled star.
The free agent class for 2026 likely lost at least one name when ex-Kings guard De’Aaron Fox was traded to San Antonio, his preferred destination, on Sunday evening. Fox is expected to sign a long-term extension with the Spurs.
The Heat had been eyeing Luka Doncic, among others, in that 2026 class, and it remains to be seen whether Doncic will sign an extension with the Lakers after his stunning trade from the Mavericks on Saturday night.
Doncic is eligible to sign a five-year, $229 million extension with the Lakers this summer. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks noted, Doncic could sign a three-year extension this summer that would leave him under contract through 2028-29, with a player option that season. If he opts out in 2028 in such a scenario, Doncic would be eligible for a long-term contract starting at $72 million in 2028-29.
According to The Ringer, Doncic has long been intrigued by playing in Los Angeles or Miami. Now that he’s in Los Angeles, Doncic would need to sour on the Lakers for Miami to have a chance to land him.
If Doncic joins Fox as potential 2026 free agents “off the table,” then the top remaining potential 2026 free agents would be Atlanta’s Trae Young ($49 million player option), Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard ($63 million player option for 2026-27), Boston’s Kristaps Porzingis, Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., the Knicks’ Mikal Bridges and Phoenix’s Kevin Durant. Some of those players are expected to sign extensions before 2026, including Jackson and Bridges.
Others who could exercise free agency that summer of 2026 include Portland’s DeAndre Ayton and Anfernee Simons, Chicago’s Zach LaVine ($49 million player option), Houston’s Fred Van Vleet, Utah’s Colin Sexton, Chicago’s Coby White, the Pelicans’ C.J. McCollum and the Clippers’ James Harden.
Keep in mind that because the Suns are above the NBA’s second apron, they cannot send multiple players to Miami in a trade for Butler. Only trading Beal or Kevin Durant to Miami would be permitted because of Phoenix’s payroll and the Suns had been unwilling to offer Durant as of early this week.
▪ Scenario 2: Miami takes Beal, which is something the Heat remained strongly against as of early this week:
In this scenario, if the Suns agreed to give Miami all three of their tradable firsts (it’s unclear if they would), then the Heat would have at least four available first-round picks to trade beginning in late June.
Now the bad news...
Beal is due to earn $53.7 million next season and $57.1 million in 2026-27. If the Heat surprisingly accepted Beal, the Heat not only would be about $5 million above next season’s luxury tax threshold (which would trigger a particularly onerous repeater tax), but would have negligible (if any) cap space in the summer of 2026.
With the 2026-27 cap projected at $170.6 million, assuming Beal’s contract would leave the Heat with only about $8 million in cap space in the summer of 2026, factoring in cap holds for empty roster spots as well as team options for Ware ($4.6 million) and Jaquez Jr. ($5.9 million).
And that cap space would disappear if Miami gives a substantial contract to Jovic; Miami must extend a $6.5 million qualifying offer to Jovic in order to retain the right to match outside offers that summer.
Because Miami wouldn’t have much, if any, cap space with Beal on its books, this hypothetical would mean the Heat would move forward with a core of Adebayo, Herro, Beal, Ware, Jovic and Jaquez.
With Beal able to veto any trade through the end of his contract, Miami’s only hope of adding another very good player to that mix before the summer of 2027, in this scenario, almost assuredly would require trading Adebayo or Herro because outgoing and incoming salaries would need to come close to matching. Beyond that, Miami would have only a modest salary cap exception to use to supplement its roster.
And that, more than anything, is why adding Beal’s contract has remained unappealing to Miami, even though he’s averaging 16.9 points on efficient 49.2 percent shooting.
Keep in mind that Beal’s agent, Mark Bartelstein, has told ESPN that even if he waives his no-trade clause this week, Beal would never agree to have that clause permanently removed from his contract.
After Monday’s practice in Chicago, several Heat players reacted to the Doncic and Fox trades. Herro, who was previously mentioned in trade rumors but no longer, said the days before the trade deadline “makes you feel alive. Great time to be an NBA player.”
This story was originally published February 3, 2025 at 5:00 PM.
